An area of low pressure tracking along a nearly stationary frontal boundary brought showers and thunderstorms to southeast Illinois during the evening of March 6th. One of the thunderstorm cells became severe across Crawford County, causing significant wind damage near Duncanville.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
An area of low pressure tracking along a nearly stationary frontal boundary brought showers and thunderstorms to southeast Illinois during the evening of March 6th. One of the thunderstorm cells became severe across Crawford County, causing significant wind damage near Duncanville.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 6, 9:04 PM CST, 1 hour 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 904 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 A moisture-laden storm system will lift across the Ohio River Valley tonight bringing heavy thunderstorms to parts of southern Illinois, and accumulating snow to parts of northern Illinois. Then, after a quiet mid-week period with warming temperatures, another winter smash arrives by the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 Light to moderate rain is falling over most of central Illinois this evening and will continue through the night. Isolated thunder is getting further north than first forecast. Have already updated to add thunder further north and will make another update soon to account for the snow and sleet that is occuring in far west central IL which should move across parts of central Illinois, northwest of the IL river. This winter precip should remain northwest of the IL river given forecast soundings and radar interpretation of multiple parameters. Another update to the forecast will be coming shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 202 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 Afternoon GOES WV imagery depicts a mid-level trough opening and pivoting across the Plains this afternoon, with convection initializing along a slow moving frontal zone that extends from the Red River Valley of Texas, through the Ohio River Valley, and up towards New England. This front will lift just south of the I-70 corridor of southern Illinois tonight as showers and thunderstorms begin to blossom on the nose of the LLJ. Most of our southern counties will be positioned north of the front tonight, meaning that the near- surface environment will be capped and that storm activity will largely remain elevated. Yet, we're not completely ignorant to the impressive kinematics that evolve with the system overnight. Should a rogue downburst punch through the cap, it would likely pose an isolated damaging wind threat with thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 60 mph. Perhaps the bigger concern for portions of southern and central Illinois overnight will be the heavy rainfall as a moisture-laden air mass surges northward and pools along the sharpening frontal zone. QPF amounts look to range from about 1-1.5 inches south of I-72, with localized amounts up to 3 inches within heavier thunderstorms. Our local flash flood guidance and soil moisture metrics suggest the flash flooding threat is low. Due to these factors, we did not issue a flood watch, but this rainfall episode will certainly result in renewed rises on area rivers and streams. In addition to heavy rain and potential severe weather, light snow is possible late tonight into Monday as colder air filters into the area. Accumulating snow up to 3 inches is possible north of a Macomb to Pontiac line, which could lead to slippery travel for the Monday morning commute. As dry air wraps into the low, loss of cloud ice could result in a brief period of freezing drizzle in locations north of I-72 where up to a tenth of an inch of flat ice is possible. Predictability issues remain with respect to the wintry precip tonight into Monday, setting the stage for a boom or bust forecast. Despite the latest HREF and NBMv4.1 probabilities suggesting 1-3" of snow possible north of a Macomb-to-Pontiac line, this comes with concern, as model soundings reveal thermal profiles that waver between sufficient cloud ice and insufficient cloud ice. The better potential for impactful snow lies west of our CWA from NE Missouri into the Quad Cities where stronger frontogenesis coexists in the vicinity of saturated EPV, which is more supportive of CSI and organized heavy snow bands. Still, we are hedging our bets with a Winter Weather Advisory that spans 04z/10pm to 18z/Noon for our counties west of the Illinois River. Be sure to check back later this evening for updates on the winter weather potential. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 202 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 The center of surface high pressure will build across central Illinois by Tuesday as tonight's storm system quickly lifts into the Northern Atlantic. Temperatures will exhibit a warming trend through Thursday as surface high pressure begins to depart and winds veer southerly in response. By Thursday night, the Polar Jet Stream looks to buckle over the Rockies as a mid-level shortwave trough begins to dig hard across the Northern Plains. This will drive an arctic front into the Midwest, bringing accumulating snow and a return to very cold temperatures to central Illinois by Friday. Overnight temperatures next weekend could bottom out in the single digits, per the latest NBM guidance. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites this evening but as precip moves into the area from the southwest, conditions will drop to MVFR after 03z and then quickly into IFR before midnight. These IFR cigs below 1kft will continue overnight and into the morning hours and then improve to MVFR clouds below 2kft. Precip will be all rain over the TAF sites, except for PIA that will have a couple of hours of FZRA from 11-13z. Then the precip could be drizzle. Precip at all sites will lighten and become drizzle during the morning hours for 2-4hrs and precip type will be dependent on temps. Winds will be northern and then become northeast this evening with some gusts of 21-25kts, but then back to northerly late tonight and then to northwest with some gusts of 20-23kts tomorrow morning. Conditions should improve in the afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for ILZ027>030-036. && UPDATE...Auten SYNOPSIS...MJA SHORT TERM...MJA LONG TERM...MJA AVIATION...Auten
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 310 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 ILZ027>030-036-071200- Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Peoria-Stark- 310 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Mixed precipitation is expected overnight, with snow accumulations up to 3 inches and up to a tenth inch of ice accumulation possible. Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Illinois River near Havana and Beardstown. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Mixed precipitation is expected to continue through the morning, with snow accumulations up to 3 inches and up to a tenth inch of ice accumulation possible. Minor snow accumulations are possible again Thursday night and Friday. Amounts are uncertain at this time. Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Illinois River near Havana and Beardstown. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ031-037-038-040>042-047-048-071200- Cass-Logan-Mason-McLean-Menard-Schuyler-Tazewell-Woodford- 310 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Moderate to heavy rain is possible overnight, and could result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas and rises on area rivers and streams. A brief mix of rain and snow is possible late in the night, but no accumulations are expected. Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Illinois River near Havana and Beardstown. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A mix of rain and snow is possible in the morning, but no accumulations are expected. Minor snow accumulations are possible Thursday night and Friday. Amounts are uncertain at this time. Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Illinois River near Havana and Beardstown. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ043>046-049>057-061-071200- Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Macon-Morgan- Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Scott-Shelby-Vermilion- 310 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Moderate to heavy rain is possible overnight, and could result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas and rises on area rivers and streams. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Minor snow accumulations are possible Thursday night and Friday. Amounts are uncertain at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-071200- Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland- 310 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Illinois and southeast Illinois. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Locally heavy rain is anticipated from tonight into early Monday morning, with flash flooding possible. Renewed rises on area rivers and streams may be expected. Thunderstorms will be possible late tonight. A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph being the primary hazard. Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Wabash River. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Minor snow accumulations are possible Thursday night and Friday. Amounts are uncertain at this time. The Little Wabash and Embarras Rivers are expected to rise through the day on Monday into Tuesday, and may reach minor flood stage. Minor flooding will continue on portions of the Wabash River. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed late tonight from around 10 pm to 4 am. 37
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
516 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1153 PM TSTM WND DMG LOVINGTON 39.72N 88.63W
03/05/2022 MOULTRIE IL PUBLIC
SEVERAL POWER POLES SNAPPED. RELAYED BY
WCIA-TV.
&&The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:03 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple machine sheds and outbuildings were destroyed near Duncanville just east of Highway 1.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1015407.