Rip Current in Florida, March 6, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
614 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will keep an
breezy to windy easterly wind flow over the TAF sites today.
Ceiling and vis will remain in VFR conditions along with dry
weather over all of the TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 202 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022)

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...

Surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic waters off the
Mid- Atlantic United States remains the major synoptic scale
influence over southern Florida. With the region sitting on the
periphery of the surface high, the breezy easterly flow will
persist through the weekend into early portions of the work week.
Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will be pinched from the northwest
as a cold front approaches Florida.

This pattern will keep deep-layered moisture limited over the
area though the persistent easterly flow will allow for shallow
moisture to continue building over the area which could permit
some shallow shower activity to return to the forecast by Monday,
especially in the northern areas closer to the front as the high
aloft shifts south.

Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 80s over Southwest Florida (where the
easterly flow will allow the airmass to warm as it traverses the
peninsula) and lower to mid 80s over Southeast Florida. The
Atlantic breeze will keep the overnight lows from offering much
relief over Southeast Florida with temperatures in the lower to
mid 70s though inland areas and Southwest Florida will dip into
the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...

The front's progress will stall around the Interstate 10 corridor
in northern Florida, which means that the influence of high
pressure will remain at the surface through mid-week until the
next reinforcing impulse arrives by late week to get the front
moving again. There is some spread between guidance as to what the
frontal boundaries southward progress will be but it appears that
South Florida will not see an airmass change but instead
moderation of the airmass from tropical influences.

Accordingly, the warmer temperatures with afternoon highs in the
80s and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s will continue through
the period. Some areas reaching the lower 90s cannot be ruled out.
As the boundary approaches, the influence of high pressure will
decrease allowing an eventual shift to a southerly component in
the wind flow and increasing deep moisture which will lead to
increasing PoPs. Right now showers appear to be the convection
appropriate for the forecast as the support aloft for
thunderstorms appears limited and chances are too low to mention
with this forecast.

Around the end of the period, the front will get that reinforcing
impulse to push across Florida. It is still somewhat uncertain to
say if the timing will be late Saturday or sometime on Sunday but
it could lead to a slight cool down to close out the extended
forecast period.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions should prevail through the cycle. The primary story
will be continued gusty easterly/southeasterly winds through
today. Some gusts in excess of 25 knots, especially terminals
closest to the Atlantic ocean will remain possible. Winds should
relax somewhat around sunset but are forecast still remain in the
10 to 15 knot range with perhaps a few higher gusts.

MARINE...

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the end of the
weekend before winds and seas diminish early in the week. As the
week continues, the wind will begin to veer southeasterly as
marine conditions improve. Still some overnight wind surges could
lead to SCEC conditions at times through the week, particularly in
the Atlantic.

BEACHES...

Persistent easterly flow will keep the rip current risk elevated
through a good portion of the week along the Atlantic beaches. The
statement for the Atlantic high rip current risk will likely be
needed through at least Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  84  73  85 /  10  20  10  10
West Kendall     72  85  71  86 /  10  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        72  84  72  85 /  10  20  10  10
Homestead        72  83  72  83 /  10  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  74  83  73  84 /  10  30  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  73  82  72  83 /  10  30  10  20
Pembroke Pines   72  83  72  85 /  10  30  10  10
West Palm Beach  71  82  70  83 /  10  30  20  20
Boca Raton       72  82  72  84 /  10  30  20  20
Naples           69  86  69  85 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ630.

GM...None.
&&

Update/Aviation...BNB
Today through Monday and Marine...RAG/FRYE
Monday Night through Saturday...RAG

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
324 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
070230-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
324 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

...High Risk of Rip Currents Along Atlantic Beaches...
...Hazardous Marine Conditions Ongoing for the Atlantic Waters...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a high rip current risk for the Atlantic
beaches of South Florida.

Marine: Easterly winds will remain above Small Craft Advisory thresholds
over the Atlantic waters. Small craft should not venture into the
open waters of the Atlantic. Over the Gulf waters small craft should
exercise caution

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

The high risk for rip currents will continue through the weekend and
into early next week for the Atlantic beaches.

Hazardous marine conditions will continue into early Monday over the
Atlantic waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.