Funnel Clouds in Idaho, June 20, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
210 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night.

A low pressure system is creating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across central into east Idaho. Most of this activity
is diurnally generated and should diminish quickly this evening.
With the colder freezing and minus 20 levels, small hail and wind
gusts to 40 mph are possible in thunderstorms. Overnight lows for
Tuesday morning look chilly once again, but expect most areas in the
Snake Plain and Magic Valley to stay well above freezing with the
NBM showing less than a 5 percent chance of temps falling below 32
degrees. A weak upper trough will persist over the region for
Tuesday which will keep highs below normal. But most of the moisture
will move east, so we should expect dry weather for Tuesday. Winds
look much lighter for Tuesday with most areas remaining under 10
mph.

13

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.
Expect warm and mostly dry conditions through the week. Chances of
mostly mountain showers and thunderstorms return late Thursday and
continue mostly in the afternoon through Monday. Though, any
precipitation chances on Saturday and Sunday are in question. The
amount of high pressure for the weekend is in question. Most of the
model clusters support high pressure for the weekend. However, there
are a few outliers that show more zonal flow, which would allow some
moisture to creep in. Winds are light Wednesday. Thursday and Friday
winds pick up with gusts of 25 to 30 mph before looking to drop off
through the weekend with high pressure ridging building in.
Afternoon high temperatures remain mostly above normal in the 70s to
80s for the mountains and 80s to low 90s for the valleys.
Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...An upper level low system centered over Montana will
help bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the
area this afternoon. Expect vicinity showers and thunderstorms
mainly for our northern TAF sites (KSUN, KIDA and KDIJ).
Thunderstorms on station are possible this afternoon for these
sites. Gusts around 30 to 35 kts are possible accompanied by small
hail. Expect increased winds this afternoon for all sites,
especially KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA, with winds of 10 to 15 kts and
gusts of 25 Kts are possible. Showers and thunderstorm will drop
off quickly by early evening, around 00 to 01z. High pressure
moves into the area overnight into Tuesday. Expect overall clear
skies and light winds Tuesday. Wyatt

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
diminish this evening. Much of south Idaho is experiencing wind
gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. Those winds should weaken and go
light during the evening as well. Temperatures look about 10 degrees
warmer for Tuesday and winds look weaker as high pressure builds
over the area. Dry weather and light winds will continue into
Wednesday and temperatures will climb to slightly above normal.
Minimum humidity values will fall into the teens across much of the
area also.

13

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rivers in our area went down slightly today due to
cooler temperatures yesterday. The Big Wood river at Hailey remains
in action stage. Have kept the flood advisory running. The Big Wood
at Hailey is dropping due to cooler temperatures. It is forecasted
to drop out of action stage by Friday.  That said warmer
temperatures look to return by the end of the week. Would expect a
slight response or rise in those areas with remaining mountain snow,
specifically the Big Wood at Hailey, the Big Lost at Howell, the
Teton river at Driggs, and the Snake River upstream of Palisades.
Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&