Idaho, 2022Wildfire in Idaho, July 19 to 20, 2022
July 19 to 20, 2022 · NWS PIH · 1 event in 1 county or zone
An 89 acre grass fire occurred near Lake Wolcott and Rupert. No known cause was found and no structures were damaged.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
An 89 acre grass fire occurred near Lake Wolcott and Rupert. No known cause was found and no structures were damaged.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 2:50 AM MST, 10 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 2:50 AM MST, 10 hours 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
350 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Night.
Weak ridging has rebounded and will continue to build in over the
next several days, resulting in predominately dry conditions. Only
very slight chances exist across the southern extent of our CWA for
isolated thunderstorms and showers this afternoon and evening. A
more unstable and more favorable storm environment will remain
further south, so confidence is low. High temperatures today will
run a couple degrees cooler than yesterday across much of the
region, with the Snake River Plain and Eastern Magic Valley
reaching the mid-80s to low 90s and elsewhere seeing highs in the
upper 70s and 80s. Tomorrow will be warmer, with temperatures
increasing by an average of 5 degrees across the Snake River Plain
and Eastern Magic Valley. This afternoon and evening will be
breezy, with highest wind speeds forecast across the Snake Plain
and Central Mtns. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) has our
region highlighted for elevated wind gusts today. Gusts are
expected to max out at 25-30 mph and winds tomorrow are expected
to be similar in speeds. Wind speeds will likely fall just shy of
Red Flag Warning criteria and therefore we have held off on
issuing any fire products (see Fire Weather discussion below).
However, elevated winds will continue to filter in smoke from
regional fires and smoke will likely be more visible across our
region today, especially across the Snake River Plain. Cropp
.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.
The long term begins with high pressure ridging firmly in place with
the center of the high over the four corners region. We'll remain
just on the northern periphery of the monsoonal moisture and can't
rule out a shower or isolated thunderstorm in the Southeast
Highlands Thursday afternoon. Another disturbance is poised to enter
the coastal PacNW Friday and move inland into the weekend.
Deterministic model and ensemble-based solutions seem well in-line
with each other through Saturday, then the agreement breaks down
with the GFS being an extreme outlier bringing in another deep low
to the area early next week. Will keep an eye on this trend, but
will favor the ensemble-based approach which has that initial wave
of low pressure moving north of the area this weekend and then more
zonal flow aloft into next week.
The wave Friday into Saturday will bring only slight chance PoPs
along our eastern zones each afternoon, but will result in stronger
winds and drier air moving in. This will likely lead to the next
impactful fire weather day with stronger surface flow and drier air
mixing in (more details below). Temperatures will start out slightly
above averages Thursday and Friday, but a brief respite will come
with the passing trough Saturday. Temperatures will rebound to above
average heading into early next week. TAX
&&
.AVIATION...Ridging will continue to build over the region
throughout the next several days. Mid to high FEW and SCT clouds
will push further north into southern Idaho throughout the late
morning and afternoon. Clouds will scatter out and begin exiting
to the east after sunset, with clear skies expected by sunrise.
Mostly clear skies will persist until Wednesday afternoon. Winds
will be breezy today, elevating late morning through sunset, with
sustained winds over 15 kts and gusts around 25 kts at KPIH and
KIDA. Slightly weaker winds ranging 10-20 kts expected at all
other sites. Low confidence in very slight chances of isolated
thunderstorms across the southern extent of our CWA. The only
terminal that would likely be impacted would be KBYI but have not
forecast any weather at this time considering low confidence
currently. Cropp
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Current mid-level water vapor imagery showing a
vast expanse of very dry air north of a line from Boise to
Pocatello. This dry air will be resident through northern portions
of Fire Zones 410 and 422 through today as well as the entirety
of Zones 475, 476, and 411 leading to very dry minimum relative
humidity values. Expecting valley bottoms through Fire Zones 475
and 476 to drop into the 5-10% range including near the Moose
Fire. Similarly, the lower Lost River Valleys out to the Arco
Desert could also see humidity values near or just below 10%
including the area near the Middle Fire. All Fire Zones are
expected to be as dry and some even drier than Monday. The real
difference from Monday will be the lack of very strong winds.
Outside of a few high terrain locations and valley drainages, early
morning observations indicate that winds have generally relaxed from
Monday evening. A lingering moderately strong 700mb jet will weaken
through the morning hours as it lifts northward from the Snake Plain
through southern portions of Zones 475, 476 and 410. As we warm
through the afternoon, some breezy conditions will likely occur,
especially across the higher terrain in these zones and spilling out
into the Arco Desert. In general, winds should remain below Red Flag
Warning levels, but some locations will likely see gusts around 25
mph.
We'll see humidity levels moderate modestly Wednesday and Thursday
as the driest air gets deflected further north. Winds on these days
will be quite similar to what we'll see today, with gusts topping
out near 25 mph across higher terrain and in the Arco Desert. The
next higher impact day looks to be shaping Friday as another weaker
disturbance approaches from the west. Moisture will increase
modestly ahead of this wave, but surface flow should markedly
increase as well. TAX
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
Wildfire, Eastern Magic Valley
- When
- July 19, 1:00 PM MST to July 20, 6:00 PM MST
- Where
- Eastern Magic Valley forecast zone
- Reported by
- Park/Forest Service
- Coordinates
- 42.811, -113.514 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
An 89 acre grass fire occurred near Lake Wolcott and Rupert. No known cause was found and no structures were damaged.
- Wildfire
- A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1047843.