Idaho, 2022Wildfire in Idaho, August 16 to 19, 2022
August 16 to 19, 2022 · NWS PIH · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A brush fire began August 16th 5 miles northwest of Carey and grew to 650 acres. Farms and homes were threatened but no damages were reported.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A brush fire began August 16th 5 miles northwest of Carey and grew to 650 acres. Farms and homes were threatened but no damages were reported. The wildfire was actively controlled on August 19th.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 1:38 AM MST, 11 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 1:38 AM MST, 11 hours 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
238 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Night.
With a ridge of high pressure centered over the Great Basin through
the coming days, very dry conditions and above normal temperatures
continue with widespread afternoon humidities less than 15 percent
and high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 100s through
Wednesday. With PWATs continuing to hover near than or less than
0.50 inches and SBCAPE around 500 J/kg in the mountains, afternoon
cumulus clouds developing in an unstable atmosphere will have the
chance to bring isolated virga and showers with less than a 10
percent chance for lightning along the Montana, Utah, and Wyoming
border regions today and tomorrow. Given a well established very dry
environment below these clouds, limited support exists for seeing
precipitation impacts at the surface with best chances for any
development again across the mountain ranges at elevation.
Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 100s are
situated about 5 to 12 degrees above normal for this time of year
with normal highs in the low to upper 80s across southeast Idaho.
Potential record highs are possible for all climate sites with the
current forecast exceeding records or being within a couple degrees.
Heat Risk concerns will remain in the Moderate Risk category meaning
those sensitive to the heat and especially those without effective
cooling or adequate hydration will see continued impacts through
Thursday ahead of monsoon moisture returning Friday which will help
bring temperatures back to near normal to below normal levels. One
aspect working in favor of keeping Heat Risk below a High Risk
category will be overnight lows with clear skies overnight
supporting effective radiative cooling as lows remain in the 30s and
40s in mountain valleys and 50s and 60s across all other lower
elevations. Limited forcing mechanisms will keep winds light through
Wednesday given the ridge centered directly overhead.
Given very dry conditions across the western United States, fire
activity has picked back up and with that comes increased smoke from
regional wildfires especially those in the Central Mountains with
the Salmon-Challis NF and Sawtooth NF reporting new fire starts in
the region in addition to the larger burning fires. The latest HRRR
Smoke guidance supports haze and patchy smoke developing in the
Central Mountains and spreading out with less intensity across the
Snake Plain and surrounding locales. Have included the mention of
haze in the forecast for areas most likely to see near-surface
impacts with haze aloft regionwide across all of southeast Idaho.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.
Upper ridge axis will shift to the east on Thursday as a
shortwave trough lifts into NV/OR. This may trigger some isolated
convection in the Southern Highlands and the Central Mountains
Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will climb to the mid 90s on
Thursday as the ridge moves to the east. Some model guidance is
indicating highs up to 100 degrees on Thursday, though cloud cover
may keep us from getting that high. Winds also show signs of
increasing on Thursday, particularly over the Eastern Magic Valley
as it is more in proximity of the upper trough. As the trough
slowly progresses into Idaho, slight chance PoPs will continue
through Friday morning across the southwestern half of the
forecast area. An isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out for
Thursday night/Friday morning. Convection will become more
widespread across southeast Idaho Friday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures will be on the way Friday and through the weekend as
we see higher humidity being driven into Idaho. Models this coming
weekend offer some slightly different solutions with the GFS
pushing a trough to our north, while the ECMWF maintains a weak
upper low over UT and is the wetter of the two models.
PWAT values Thursday will increase to 0.8" to 1.0", and increase on
Friday to 1.0" to 1.1". That, along with a weak mid-level flow, will
increase chances of period of heavy and prolonged rain over some
areas. Localized flooding is possible. Hinsberger
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday.
Today will be a continuation of dry and stable weather courtesy
of strong upper-level high pressure. High-res models favor down-
valley flow across the Snake Plain terminals today. Diurnal wind
variations are expected at KSUN and KDIJ. All terminals will be
staying VFR today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure centered over the Great Basin will bring continued
very hot and dry conditions across southeast Idaho with widespread
critical afternoon humidities less than 15 percent and afternoon
high temperatures running 5 to 12 degrees above normal in the upper
80s to low 100s. With PWATs continuing to hover near than or less
than 0.50 inches and SBCAPE around 500 J/kg in the mountains,
afternoon cumulus clouds developing in an unstable atmosphere will
have the chance to bring isolated virga and showers with less than a
10 percent chance for lightning along the Montana, Utah, and Wyoming
border regions today and tomorrow. Given a well established very dry
environment below these clouds, limited support exists for seeing
precipitation impacts at the surface with best chances for any
development again across the mountain ranges at elevation.
An upper level trough moving in across the northern Pacific will
shift the ridge of high pressure further east which will gradually
break down Thursday with increased winds nearing critical thresholds
across the Snake Plain down towards the Utah and Nevada borders in
addition to the best potential for isolated dry thunderstorms south
of the Snake Plain given PWATs between 0.50 and 0.80 inches. As the
monsoon moisture axis shifts overhead for Friday, significant
improvements to humidities and increasing chances for isolated to
scattered precipitation begin with support for widespread PWATs
between 0.60 and 1.20 inches especially over the weekend. A series
of upper level troughs carry the potential to extend this monsoon
moisture push into the region into next week with the ECMWF
supporting limited ridge development under the weight of these
troughs moving in from the west. This is favorable for keeping
temperatures near normal to below normal with precipitation
potentially continuing through as late as next Thursday dependent on
the timing and amplitude of these upper level features. The GFS in
contrast shows very dry southwest flow from the Pacific returning as
soon as Monday with zonal hot and dry flow returning to the region.
Will continue to monitor these solutions over the coming days with
continued increasing confidence surrounding monsoon moisture impacts
beginning Friday through the weekend.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
www.weather.gov/Pocatello
www.facebook.com/NWSPocatello
www.twitter.com/NWSPocatello
SHORT TERM...MacKay
LONG TERM...Hinsberger
AVIATION...Hinsberger
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay/Hinsberger
Wildfire, Shoshone-Lava Beds
- When
- August 16, 1:00 PM MST to August 19, 8:00 PM MST
- Where
- Shoshone-Lava Beds forecast zone
- Reported by
- Park/Forest Service
- Coordinates
- 43.089, -113.918 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
A brush fire began August 16th 5 miles northwest of Carey and grew to 650 acres. Farms and homes were threatened but no damages were reported. The wildfire was actively controlled on August 19th.
- Wildfire
- A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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- Flash Flood and Flooding in Texas, August 16 to 17, 2022$200,000 · 3 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Mississippi, August 16, 2022$118,000 · 1.25 in hail · 5 events
- Flash Flood and Damaging Winds in California, August 16, 2022$75,000 · 52 kt wind · 3 events
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- Heat in California, August 16 to 20, 202221 events
- Damaging Winds in New York, August 16, 2022$21,000 · 51 kt wind · 3 events
- Lightning Strikes in Florida, August 16, 2022$20,000 · 2 events
- Dense Fog in Illinois, August 16 to 17, 20229 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1055340.