Drought in Hawaii, September 1 to 20, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
852 PM HST Wed Aug 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trade winds will continue through the weekend, with some
afternoon sea breezes possible. A dry and stable airmass overhead
will limit shower activity through Friday, with some increase in
showers this weekend. Any showers that do develop will favor the
windward and mountains locations, especially during overnight and
morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
No changes to the forecast this evening, and not expecting to make
any significant changes to the forecast for the morning package.

The surface sees a ridge northeast of the islands, and a
stationary front further north. The ridge is helping to maintain
a moderate trade wind pattern over the region. Winds are light
enough in leeward areas for some afternoon sea breezes. In the mid
levels, a ridge over the region is helping to provide dry and
stable conditions. This is limited rainfall across the region.

Expect little change through Friday. As we head into the weekend,
the mid level ridge begins to erode, and the ridge to the north
begins to reestablish itself. An upper level low drifts west
towards the islands, and this will support some additional showers
to be carried in on the trade wind flow. Heading into next week,
the upper low will have exited to the west, allowing a drier
airmass to return.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trade winds will continue with afternoon sea breezes over
some of the terrain sheltered leeward slopes. More stable VFR
conditions will prevail for most areas. A weak low level trough
approaching the Big Island from the east may increase cloud and
shower activity over windward sections of the island after
midnight HST. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in passing trade
wind showers mainly affecting windward and mountain areas.

There are no AIRMETs currently in effect. A possible AIRMET Sierra
may be needed for mountain obscurations by early Thursday morning
over the windward sections of the Big Island after midnight HST.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak front north of the area is drifting south and will
eventually dissipate over the northern offshore waters during the
next few days. This feature will help limit the strength of the
trade winds, which will remain moderate to locally fresh into
early next week.

No significant surf, along any coastline, is expected into next
week. Background medium- to long-period south swells will keep
small surf along the south facing shores. The next best chance for
larger south swell energy may begin to develop in the first week
of September from a low expected to form just east of New
Zealand. This pulse may reach the south shores of Hawaii in about
a week and a half. Elsewhere, a small north swell will produce a
foot or two above flat for the north facing shores Thursday night
and Friday. And surf along east facing shores will build modestly
this weekend, but likely to remain in the below-average category.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Kinel