Drought in Hawaii, June 1 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
838 PM HST Tue May 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trade winds will continue through Thursday, with clouds
and mainly light showers favoring windward and mauka locations.
Trade winds will trend down Friday through the weekend, potentially
enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to dominate
over leeward areas. Stable and somewhat dry conditions will lead
to light rainfall accumulations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep stable
moderate trade wind weather in the forecast through Thursday.
Model cross sections continue to show trade wind subsidence
inversion heights in the 5,000 to 7,000 foot range, limiting
vertical cloud development and shower coverage. Brief passing
showers may develop in the overnight to early morning hours over
windward and mountain areas in this pattern. Most leeward areas
will remain dry.

The ridge north of the islands will weaken from Friday into the
weekend. Local scale land and sea breezes will develop over
leeward western slopes of each island as large scale trade wind
speeds decrease in strength. Clouds will build over island
mountain and interior sections each day from late morning to
afternoon with isolated showers possible. A fairly stable
temperature inversion aloft will tend to limit shower coverage and
amounts in this hybrid trade wind sea breeze weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate easterly trade winds will continue through the next
couple of days as high pressure remains in place north of the
island chain. Stable air overhead will allow VFR flight conditions
to prevail at most locations, though latest satellite imagery and
surface observations this evening show isolated areas of low
clouds along windward sections of the islands. MVFR ceilings and
visibility will continue to be isolated in nature throughout the
forecast period, particularly within any showers that develop.
Leeward clouds are forecast to increase once again on Wednesday
afternoon across western sections of the Big Island before
clearing late Wednesday night. Otherwise, clouds and showers will
favor north through east facing sections of the islands throughout
the period.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect, though satellite trends
will continue to be monitored for possible mountain obscuration
across windward locations early Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will maintain moderate
to fresh trade winds across the coastal waters through Wednesday.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for typical windier waters
around Maui County and the Big Island through early morning
Wednesday and could be extended if trade wind speeds remain
elevated. Trade winds could decrease towards the end of the week
as the ridge moves closer to the state.

Offshore buoys are coming in several feet above guidance this
evening which will boost south shore surf heights into the High
Surf Warning criteria. Thus the current High Surf Advisory (HSA)
has been upgraded to a High Surf Warning through Wednesday
morning. Surf heights are expected to slowly subside to HSA levels
Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning and then
continue to subside into the weekend. A smaller south swell is
expected to fill in over the weekend keeping surf near seasonal average.

The current small northwest swell will slowly decline tonight
with mainly background energy by Wednesday morning. A small,
medium period north swell may fill in on Friday with a slight bump
to surf heights along north facing shores. Surf along east facing
shores will remain smaller than average due to the lack of strong
trade winds. The one exception will be for areas exposed to the
south swell.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until noon HST Wednesday for south facing shores
of all Hawaiian Islands.

High Surf Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM HST Thursday for
south facing shores of all Hawaiian Islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...Almanza