A front settled across the Altamaha River basin into the afternoon and became nearly stationary into the night across the local area as an upper-level impulse passed over the area. High moisture and weak SW steering flow < 10 kts produced locally heavy rainfall, especially near the front into the afternoon and evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A front settled across the Altamaha River basin into the afternoon and became nearly stationary into the night across the local area as an upper-level impulse passed over the area. High moisture and weak SW steering flow < 10 kts produced locally heavy rainfall, especially near the front into the afternoon and evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 8, 7:31 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 831 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 827 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Deep moisture remains across the region, as seen in 00z sounding. Expecting shower and thunderstorm activity to linger through the night due to the moisture, along with convergence along surface front stalled across SE GA, and waves of energy aloft moving through. Expect potential for stronger storms to end this evening with loss of diurnal heating contribution. && .NEAR TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 355 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Flood watch has been cancelled for the remainder of the evening due to reasons described in Hydrology section below. Otherwise excessive cloud cover has reduced the amount of convection in the moist southerly flow with PWATs of 2 inches or more and flood watch cannot be justified with isolated convection, most of which is expected along the old frontal boundary across inland SE GA just outside of the old Flood Watch anyways. Other remaining area of convection is expanding across the I-4 corridor of central FL which may trigger some isolated storms northward into Flagler and St Johns county along the East Coast sea breeze. Convection along the frontal boundary and East Coast sea breeze will fade after sunset or lift northward and into the Coastal Waters. Humid overnight lows in the lower/middle 70s inland, and upper 70s along the coast. Some re-development of convection along the NE Gulf Coast towards morning that may spill into inland NE FL around sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday Night) Issued at 355 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Mesoscale, diurnally driven heavy rainfall still expected each day, which makes it tough to make exact calls for Longer Fuse Flood Watch events, as ingredients for localized flooding is there as PWATs over 2 inches, divergent flow aloft around the eastern side of mid/upper low west of the region, but widespread nature of the event really needs the low level instability to drive this kind of widespread flooding along the East Coast sea breeze as it moves in both days to the I-95 and US 301 corridors which will make the urban areas of JAX/SGJ/Brunswick the main focus for this, but the widespread high clouds from convection in the GOMEX will be the "fly in the ointment" as to when to pull the trigger on the next Flood Watch as any morning through the weekend that has abundant sunshine in this tropical atmosphere will set the stage for this possibility. Max temps will be mainly in the 80s, but in mornings with enough sunshine expect some lower 90s to be possible when combined with dew points in the mid/upper 70s will produce peak Heat Indices in the 100-105F range. Afternoon and evening convection will be focused in three areas. 1) along the East coast sea breeze front along the I-95 corridor 2) along the old frontal boundary wavering across inland SE GA/Altamaha River Basin 3) from convection that pushes out of the NE Gulf and into the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL. These separate focuses for convection does make it a challenge for long-fused Flood Watches and these just may need to be issued just several hours before an event occurs. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 355 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 High precipitation chances continue through Monday as a shortwave trough lingers. With high PWATs over 2 inches and a southwest steering flow, plenty of moisture is available for heavy downpours to occur. Localized flooding is possible Sunday and Monday due to already saturated grounds from the previous heavy rainfall days. Drier air will approach SE GA Monday night, lowering PWATs and diurnal precipitation chances slightly for Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecasted for most of SE GA and NE FL, with numerous storms possible in our southern most counties. Another weak front is forecasted to reach SE GA/NE FL mid-week, stalling and weakening near the FL/GA border. Southwest flow will continue through Thursday, then begin to shift to southerly/southeasterly. Temperatures will be near normal during this period, upper 80s/lower 90s inland and slightly cooler on the coast. Portions of inland SE GA will have highs slightly below climatology, in the mid 80s on Sunday due to increased cloud cover. Lows will be just below or at 70 in SE GA, lower 70s in inland NE FL, and mid 70s on the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 A weak frontal boundary will be lingering through the waters through Friday, this weekend it is expected to lift northward. Overall, southerly flow is expected, with sustained winds staying around 10 knots. Increased wave heights of 3-5 feet are coming from the distant tropical systems allowing long period swells over 10 seconds. Precipitation chances are fairly high this weekend, concerns for low visibility and gusty winds continue with diurnal thunderstorm activity. Rip currents: A high risk of rip currents is possible Friday through Saturday night for all area beaches due to the increased east swell and wind waves. This will likely require the issuance of a Coastal Hazard Message with the next forecast package for the high risk of rips by this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 355 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Short fused Flood Watch may need to be cancelled as cloud cover today has reduced much of the expected convection this afternoon along the I-95 corridor, with just enough heating along the old frontal boundary along the Altamaha River Basin and I-4 corridor just south of the CWA border, and while these pockets of convection may trigger some evening convection over the rest of the Watch area, not enough coverage to keep the watch going at this time. Now moving forward from Friday through the weekend, still expecting widespread 2-4 inches totals to pile up from diurnal convection during the afternoon/evening hours, with isolated 4-6 inch amounts along the I-95 corridor of SE GA/NE FL and along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL as Gulf convection pushes inland at times, and new Flood Watch may need to be posted for this time frame if conditions warrant with enough morning daytime heating to set up the best conditions from widespread sea breeze storms pushing slowly inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 86 70 83 71 / 80 70 90 50 SSI 87 74 85 76 / 80 80 80 60 JAX 87 71 87 72 / 80 90 90 50 SGJ 85 72 87 74 / 80 80 80 40 GNV 83 70 86 71 / 80 70 70 40 OCF 84 71 87 72 / 80 70 80 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
928 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022
FLZ033-125-132-133-225-232-325-425-090200-
Eastern Clay FL-Coastal St. Johns FL-Western Clay FL-
Western Duval FL-South Central Duval FL-Trout River FL-
Coastal Duval FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
928 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern St.
Johns, north central Clay and southeastern Duval Counties through
1000 PM EDT...
At 928 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from 15 miles
east of Sawgrass to Baymeadows to near Mandarin. Movement was
northwest at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Landspouts and winds around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
objects.
Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Orange Park, Unf, Mandarin, Arlington, Ponte Vedra
Beach, Fruit Cove, Neptune Beach, Baymeadows and Ortega.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3011 8130 3011 8150 3010 8156 3010 8174
3033 8185 3041 8169 3040 8137 3025 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 143DEG 13KT 3019 8110 3022 8155 3014 8167
LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ENYEDIThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Newcastle Street was flooded in Brunswick. Radar estimated about 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, September 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1052250.