Rip Currents in New Jersey, September 8 to 10, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well offshore will continue to push away today as
high pressure builds. A dry weekend lies ahead with seasonable
temperatures and the surface high remaining in control. Slow
moving low pressure then brings rain chances again starting on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today as high pressure starts to build in from the west, the low
pressure offshore will get shunted away. The long train of clouds
and moisture will break up and skies will become more sunny as the
day continues. Areas N/W will have breaks first (morning) and then
the clearing will progress S/E thru the afternoon. High temperatures
today will be close to normal with maxs in the upper 70s to low 80s
for most areas. Winds will be gusty near the shore with gusts over 20
mph at times. Further inland winds will mostly be 8 to 12 mph by
late morning and into the afternoon.

Tonight the upper and surface high pressure areas will continue to
build across the Northeast and Middle Atlantic areas. Fair weather
will continue under mostly clear skies. a little patchy rural fog
possible. Lows will be near normal, ranging from the upper 50s to
low 60s for much of the area. Winds will be light from the N or
NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The end of the week into the weekend is shaping up to be a nice
couple of days. Strong upper ridging characterized by ~592 dam
heights will be sandwiched between a digging trough over the midwest
and another out across the Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure
will have control keeping the area dry with light winds as the core
of the high looks to sit right overtop of eastern Pennsylvania.
Forecast soundings for both Friday and Saturday indicate large scale
subsidence with dry air through mostly the entire column. As a
result, we'll see plenty of sunshine. Low level lapse rates will be
on the steeper side and will aid in mixing out dew points in the
afternoon keeping humidity levels comfortable. High temperatures
Friday will be in the low 80s area wide with dew points in the low-
mid 50s.

A couple passing shortwaves may try to set off a shower late
Saturday night, though strong subsidence should preclude any
precipitation. Clouds will begin to increase overnight Saturday into
Sunday in tandem with mid-level moisture advection, therefore lows
Sunday morning will be a few degrees higher than the previous
evening in the mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period will be characterized by a semi-blocking,
meridional pattern that's generally unfavorable for a progressive
nature of any surface features. Both deterministic and ensemble
guidance indicate that the upper ridge will get pushed to the east
by an approaching, and potentially impressively potent, upper
trough/closing low and surface low pressure across the midwest.

An increase in vorticity will stream through from the southwest to
northeast on Sunday, but again will be be offset by surface high
pressure sitting offshore through the weekend. Surface flow is
likely to veer southerly on Sunday as the surface high will slowly
move off to the east and an occluded surface low meanders its way
toward our area from the west. 00z guidance is still quite spread on
how this setup plays out, so overall confidence in this forecast
remains somewhat low at this point. The GFS is pretty bullish on
overall precipitation coverage beginning on Sunday while the Euro
and Canadian aren't buying into that solution at all as both hold
the surface high over our area essentially through Wednesday.
Current thinking is that the GFS is likely getting a bit too excited
in bringing rain to the area with this meridional pattern in place
as it is not favorable for quick progression of any surface or upper
level features. For this reason, decided to keep precip out of the
forecast for Sunday with only a low end slight chance Monday
evening. Both days will feature an increase in cloud coverage and
dew points will be on the rise on Sunday into the low-mid 60s, but
still comfortable with high temperatures in the low 80s.

Tuesday into Wednesday it appears that the precipitation will
finally make it to our neck of the woods. Exactly how much rain and
how widespread the rain will be remains unclear, though
deterministic guidance is hinting at the possibility of jet dynamics
coupled with PVA and surface forcing from the cold/occluded front
providing lift for another round of decent rainfall. GEFS plumes and
NBM PQPF exhibit large spread with members/percentiles ranging from
a tenth of an inch to 2 inches. Prolonged return flow ahead of the
front will likely advect in higher moisture content, but specifics
will be ironed out over the next few days. Opted to hold with NBM
PoPs for this time period. Both days will likely be on the cloudier
side with temperatures in the low 80s.

Ensembles then indicate the closed low weakening and being absorbed
back into the flow. Exactly when this happens and how quickly the
surface low dissipates/moves offshore will determine precip chances
for the latter half of the week. Owing to uncertainty at this point
of the forecast, held with NBM schc/chc PoPs to close out the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today... VFR expected. Morning clouds will diminish from W to E
with some lingering clouds for the afternoon KMIV/KACY. NE winds 5
to 10 kts most areas but 15 to 20 kts with some gusts for KACY/KMIV.
Medium/high confid.

Tonight... VFR expected. Mostly clear skies expected. Light N to NE
winds. Medium/high confid.

Friday... VFR. Easterly winds at 5-10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday - Sunday... VFR. Winds southeasterly at 5-10 knots on
Saturday, then southerly at 5-10 knots on Sunday. Moderate
confidence.

Monday... VFR. A chance of an afternoon shower. Southerly winds at 5-
10 knots. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
We will continue with the ongoing SCA flag on the waters. The SCA
for the lower Delaware Bay will come down at noon when most of the
G25 will have passed. The shore SCA will continue for both gusts G25
and enhanced seas. The gusts will diminish later this afternoon but
seas will remain up into the overnight and beyond. Clouds and a few
showers this morning then fair.

Friday... SCA continuing for Delaware and New Jersey coasts. Fair
weather. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas 5-
7 feet. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday... SCA continuing for Delaware and New Jersey coasts. Fair
weather. Northeast winds 5-10 knots becoming more easterly in the
afternoon. Seas remaining elevated at 5-6 feet. High confidence.

Sunday... SCA conditions possible. Fair weather. Southerly winds 5-
10 knots. Seas begin to subside to 4-5 feet. Moderate confidence.

Monday... SCA conditions possible. A slight chance of an afternoon
shower. Southerly winds 5-10 knots. Seas 4-5 feet. Moderate
confidence.

Rip Currents...

Through Friday, northeasterly winds of 15-25 mph
will occur along our coasts. Breaking waves will be in the 3 to
5 foot range and with a moderate to long period easterly swell,
there is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Low pressure well offshore of Delmarva will result in modest
onshore northeasterly winds through at least Friday before
diminishing into the weekend. Elevated astronomical tides are
expected from the Full Harvest Moon on Saturday. These factors
combined with the long period swells and elevated seas arriving
from the tropical cyclones across the open Atlantic are expected
to result in widespread minor coastal flooding along the
Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware and the Delaware Bay
coasts again Thursday evening and possibly Friday as well. At
least spotty minor flooding is probable for the Thursday and
Friday evening high tides up the tidal Delaware River.
There is even potential for the high tide Thursday evening to
again crest near the moderate flood stage from near and south
of Atlantic City on the Atlantic coast, especially into Cape May
and Sussex (DE) Counties, as well as along the western Delaware
Bay coast in Sussex and Kent Counties (DE). However, any
moderate flooding is expected to remain isolated enough to
preclude a Coastal Flood Warning at this time.

On the northeastern Chesapeake Bay, tide levels are expected to
remain below minor flooding thresholds.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for NJZ012>014-020>027.
     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for NJZ014-
     024>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for DEZ002>004.
     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Brudy
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...Brudy
LONG TERM...Brudy
AVIATION...Brudy/OHara
MARINE...Brudy/OHara
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...