Lightning Strike in Georgia, November 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
322 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will sweep east across the forecast area through
today. Dry and cooler high pressure will then dominate the weather
tonight through Friday. Another cold front will arrive from the
north on Saturday and possibly stall in or near the area through the
late weekend and into early next week, keeping the weather unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light to moderate precip continues to overspread the FA this
morning and isol general thunder is possible across the sw/rn zones
near daybreak. The chance for stg/svr storms remains quite low as
the sfc layer remains detached from high shear and weak instability
aloft. There may be a better chance of stg storms developing along a
line across NE GA and the Upstate near daybreak as upper energy
becomes more focused within a tightening h5 shortwave. No sigfnt
hydro issues. The SW NC mtns have seen the best ST rainfall, around
an inch and half to two inches, with little stream rises nor local
impacts noted. As the upper wave strengthens, another round of
moderate to possibly heavy rainfall will traverse the srn NC mtns
arnd 10z, yet this precipitation will be relatively short lived as
the entire system is shunted east by an ulvl trof swinging east thru
KY/TN.

By daybreak, most of the activity will be relegated to the ern zones
and few strong cells producing ctg lightning and gusty winds will be
possible, mainly across the se/rn zones where the better elCAPE may
be tapped. The actual cold front does not cross the area until this
afternoon. Little fanfare will likely be had with the FROPA outside
of sct mtn showers and isol shallow cells east across the Piedmont.
Strong hipres builds in behind the front and winds will shift nw/ly
and become gusty by mid/late afternoon. Max temps will reach the a
couple cats abv normal in sw/ly flow and an increase in insol. Mins
will drop 8-10 degrees below normal due to llvl CAA developing. With
moderate winds persisting across the mtns, wind chill values will
make it feel like the mid-teens in the valleys and the single digits
across the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 am Wednesday: Cool and dry high pressure will be in
control for much of the short term, with temperatures expected to
average 5-10 degrees below normal through Friday. However, a warming
trend begins Fri night, as heights rise along the East Coast as a
consequence of falling heights across the central Conus. Clouds are
also expected to begin increasing Fri night as broad warm advection
regime begins impinging on the southern Appalachians and vicinity in
advance of the next frontal system. While moisture within this
regime will be somewhat limited owing to a surface ridge extending
into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the QPF response in short term
model guidance is sufficient to advertise a small PoP across the
northwest half of the forecast area by daybreak Saturday. Min temps
Sat morning are expected to be 5-10 degrees above climo...and likely
too warm to support any mountain p-type concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 am Wednesday: A broad view of the extended period reveals
a somewhat unsettled and generally mild regime, although details
remain very much up in the air. A somewhat moisture-challenged cold
front will cross the CWA Saturday, with PoPs for light precip
generally in the 20-40% range. However, with the next major storm
system making landfall on the West Coast, and a strong short wave
trough passing quickly into the Canadian Maritimes, the boundary is
expected to become increasingly stretched in a direction that will
align it with zonal flow aloft...likely resulting in the front
becoming quasi-stationary across our near the forecast area into
early next week. This is expected to create a mostly cloudy regime
w/ small diurnal temp ranges and perhaps showery and/or drizzly
weather for portions of the area Sunday into Monday. At some point,
the boundary probably will return north as a rain-making warm front
in response to central Conus height falls. However, the global
models are mostly at odds as to when this will occur. As such, we
will advertise slight-to-middling chance PoPs from Sunday through the
end of the forecast cycle. For much of the period...max temps are
forecast close to climo, while min temps are expected to be a solid
10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread precip shield moving in from the
west will bring light to moderate rainfall this morning to all TAF
sites. A period of general thunder is also possible across the Upstate
terminals thru 12z. The main affect will lowering fight restrictions
to IFR/LIFR mainly due to CIGS, while mostly MVFR VSBY will had
outside of heavier showers where IFR or lower VSBY will be possible.
Reduced flight restrictions will linger thru the morning hours and
improve by the early afternoon. As a pre-frontal 60 kt llvl jet
traverses the area, a window of LLWS is likely at all sites outside
of KAVL. Low-level wind shear conds will persist generally from 12z-
18z and a couple hrs longer at KCLT. Light to moderate sfc winds
will align se/ly then shift nw/ly and become gusty this afternoon
behind a cold front.

Outlook: Dry high pressure returns Thursday and settles over the
area thru Friday. A cold front sags in from the north Saturday
possibly generating flight restrictions thru the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
420 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-302130-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
420 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold front will move into western North Carolina tonight. There
may be enough instability for a few thunderstorms to develop and
produce cloud to ground lightning after midnight. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms through
daybreak. In addition, high elevation wind gusts could reach 40 to
45 mph at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ010>012-019-101>109-302130-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
420 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold front will approach northeast Georgia and Upstate South
Carolina from the west late tonight. There may be enough
instability for a few thunderstorms to develop and produce cloud to
ground lightning overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with any showers and thunderstorms, especially in and near the
mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ008-009-013-
014-302130-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Union SC-Chester-
420 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.