Hail in Georgia, June 13, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
815 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level high will build in from the west through
mid week and maintain hot and humid conditions through the work
week. Dangerously high afternoon heat index values are expected
through Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue, with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Drier conditions
with near normal temperatures expected for the weekend. The hot
ridge may build back over our region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 pm: This update is mainly for aviation. However, still
seeing shower and thunderstorm activity increase in coverage across
the SW zones. Still have a few strong to severe storms tracking
southward across this region. Isolated cells continue developing
across portions of the northern NC mtns this evening. Otherwise, the
atmosphere remains strongly unstable, but remains weakly capped
along the eastern periphery of the upper anticyclone which is
centered over the Deep South. In light of the strong instability,
along with downdraft CAPE > 1000 J/kg, SPC's Day 1 outlook has a
Marginal Risk roughly west of U.S. Highway 25. Main potential
impacts are microbursts which could leading to damaging wind gusts.
Large hail also cannot be ruled out with any strong to severe storm
that develops.

The convective picture only becomes more complicated later this
evening into the overnight, when various (but by no means all) CAMs
guidance suggest at least one cluster of upstream convection making
a run into the forecast area. This is certainly plausible, as the
latest SPC mesoanalysis reveals a volatile environment to our NW,
with sbCAPE > 5000 J/kg across the Ohio Valley. Again, there isn't a
clear enough consensus in the guidance to completely buy into these
scenarios, but there is enough there to extend chance PoPs across
the western half of the area, and slight chance east into the early
part of the overnight. Given the nature of the environment, any
organized convection, even loosely so, will pose a threat of
damaging outflow gusts.

The complexity of tonight's forecast only compounds into tomorrow,
with concerns over potential overnight convection impacting
tomorrow's PoP forecast, but also the temp/Heat Index forecast. For
now, we are expecting another category or so uptick in
temperatures...which will have them reaching the century mark in
some spots over the Piedmont...and widespread max Heat Indices of
105-110 outside the mountains, or solid Heat Advisory criteria. In
light of the less-than-stellar confidence we have in this forecast,
we are opting to not make any changes for heat-related products for
tomorrow (i.e., Excessive Heat Watch in the Charlotte metro area)
and instead allow later shifts to monitor how the convective picture
evolves. Otherwise, PoPs will be advertised generally in the 20-40%
range, more or less in line with climatology until more clarity can
be attained re: convective trends over the next 18 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Monday: Cold front is expected to continue pushing
southward across the coastal Carolinas Tuesday night into early
Wednesday, while the exceptionally strong/hot ridge remains in place
over the southern Appalachian region, including our CWA. HiRes-FV3
and 3km NAM both depict convection beginning to grow upscale in
eastern NC/VA near sunset Tuesday, which then propagates generally
south with the aid of the front. Both depict a linear MCS turning
westward toward between 00z and 12z Wednesday, being fueled by
exceptional elevated instability which should go largely untapped
Tuesday afternoon. The current depictions place this activity on
track mostly to our south. Hodographs are relatively chaotic but
those runs that depict an MCS show enough shear to buy the idea. It
is worth watching as the track could easily trend more toward our
area. DCAPE and theta-E lapses would be supportive of a damaging
wind threat. SPC Day 2 outlook currently features Marginal Risk for
a swath of the Southeast, now encompassing our entire CWA.

It still appears 500mb heights peak over the area Wednesday, though
some models now depict 1000-500mb thickness falling back a little
under the influence of the cold front. That will also introduce drier
midlevel air to parts of the CWA, which offers more potential for
dewpoint mixing in the afternoon. As such the heat Wednesday could
turn out to be somewhat less severe than previously forecast, if
these indeed pan out. Nevertheless we could probably make an argument
for a Heat Advisory for some portion of the area, especially if heat
indices remain forecast to exceed 100 for a second or third day.
Turning to convective threats, model signals continue to point to
some diurnal t-storm potential Wednesday. Light easterly flow
associated with high pressure centered near New England appears to be
enough for convective initiation, with some activity depicted on all
our global models, as well as the CAMs which go out that far.  Prog
soundings look similar to Tuesday's except for the potentially larger
DCAPE/sfc-delta-thetaE owing to the somewhat drier midlevels.
Instability will be about as good as it ever gets, if the easterly
flow is enough to break the cap, and loosely organized storms posing
a damaging wind risk will be the main concern.

The upper ridge will pivot and begin to weaken Thursday as trough
passes north of the Great Lakes. Thicknesses continue a slow decline,
but some guidance suggests Thursday will be nearly as hot as
Wednesday, seemingly just due to airmass modification as the effect
of the cold front fades. Prefrontal convergence however leads most
models to depict diurnal convection, possibly bringing cloud cover or
outflows which would have their own mitigating effect. Can't
completely rule out a heat headline, if confidence in a dry forecast
increases. More meaningful height falls begin over our area Thursday
night and continuing into Friday once the trough moves into the NE
CONUS, with the attendant cold front reaching the CWA Friday.
Synoptic models suggest midlevel winds will turn NW during the day,
and that dewpoints will lower enough to bring heat index down to
around 100; still quite hot but out of the danger zone. Downsloping
however may keep air temp in the mid to upper 90s for portions of the
Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday: CAA finally settles into the area Friday night
on the global deterministic models, and a dry/subsident airmass
will return to the area for the weekend. The upper pattern evolves
into an omega block, with the area between Plains ridge and NE
CONUS cyclone.  Although aftn temps currently look to remain at
or just above normal, it certainly will be a welcome change after
the hot workweek. The continental sfc high is expected to bring
dewpoints in the 50s or even 40s. RH could actually fall below 30
percent; some fire danger could develop in areas that don't see
rain between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the forecast period. Shower and
thunderstorm activity continues tracking south across the far SW
zones this evening. Have VCTS at KAND as the outflow boundary
associated with these storms could trigger new development near
KAND. Other terminals are seeing dry conditions currently. Winds
will be mostly light and variable overnight which could lead to
mountain valley fog development. However, cloud cover across the NC
mtns may limit this development somewhat. Not expecting fog to reach
KAVL. The majority of the 00Z TAF forecast period remains very low
confidence as high resolution models are not in agreement regarding
convective chances tonight into Tuesday. For now maintained VCSH at
KCLT, KGSP, KGMU. Have the rest of the TAF sites dry. An MCS is
expected to develop across the OH Valley region. This could hold
together and track across the fcst area Tuesday afternoon and
evening. However, guidance has been backing off on this feature the
last few runs. Winds become W/NW'ly on Tuesday and will reach
roughly the same speeds we saw earlier today.

Outlook: Better chances for afternoon and early-evening SHRA/TSRA
are expected Wednesday, continuing thru the end of the work week.
Mountain valley fog will be possible each morning and in areas where
heavy rain falls the previous day

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-13

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      91 2016     60 1906     69 1981     43 1903
                1894                    1969
   KCLT      97 1958     63 1906     76 1998     49 1903
                1945
   KGSP      99 1886     70 1992     76 1920     46 1903
                            1906

RECORDS FOR 06-14

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      92 2016     67 1955     67 2018     41 1903
                            1933        2004
                            1907        1958
   KCLT      99 1958     66 1906     76 1958     49 2019
                1921                    1881
   KGSP      98 1885     60 1906     74 2010     46 1903
                                        1921

RECORDS FOR 06-15

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1952     63 1917     68 2004     42 1933
                                        1969
                                        1958
   KCLT      99 2015     60 1884     75 1998     51 1933
                                        1981
   KGSP      97 1981     69 1965     74 1918     51 1904
                1885        1906

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068-069-502-504-506-508-510.
     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ070>072-082.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ008-010>013-
     019-104>109.
     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     SCZ009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AP/JDL
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1137 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ101>103-
141545-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
1137 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop across the area this afternoon.
The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ510-SCZ010>013-019-104>109-141545-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Eastern Polk-Anderson-
Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
1137 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area
this afternoon and evening. While the main threats will be from
frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall, a
couple of storms could briefly become severe, producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail. Hot and humid conditions will develop as
well this afternoon. Heat index values over 100 degrees are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area Tuesday. A few
of the storms could become severe with damaging winds the main
threat. The hot and humid conditions will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday. Heat index values will reach the 105 degree range.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-SCZ008-141545-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Cherokee-
1137 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hot and humid conditions will develop across the area this
afternoon. Heat index values over 100 degrees are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area Tuesday. A few
of the storms could become severe with damaging winds the main
threat. The hot and humid conditions will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday. Heat index values will reach the 105 degree range.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-014-141545-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-York-Chester-
1137 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area Tuesday. A few
of the storms could become severe with damaging winds the main
threat. Very high heat index values are expected again on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
433 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

NCZ063-064-132100-
Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-
433 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Transylvania
and east central Jackson Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 433 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Brevard, or 6 miles northwest of Rosman, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brevard, Rosman, Lake Toxaway, Gorges State Park, Balsam Grove,
Connestee and Wolf Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8298 3529 8292 3531 8288 3532 8283
      3519 8265 3504 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 329DEG 11KT 3523 8288

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             4 NW SALEM              34.94N 83.02W
06/13/2022  M0.75 INCH       OCONEE             SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            OBSERVED ALONG NORTH LITTLE RIVER RD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
754 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

GAZ028-SCZ010-140045-
Hart GA-Anderson SC-
754 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Hart
and west central Anderson Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 754 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Clemson, or 5 miles southwest of Pendleton, moving
south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Homeland Park, Reed Creek, Anderson Airport, Lake Hartwell,
Pendleton, Townville, Sandy Springs and Sadlers Creek State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8290 3465 8281 3463 8277 3446 8264
      3439 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 345DEG 6KT 3458 8282

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
803 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-SCZ101-104-140100-
Franklin GA-Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
803 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Franklin, Stephens,
Habersham, south central Rabun and southwestern Oconee Counties
through 900 PM EDT...

At 803 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Toccoa, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toccoa, Clarkesville, Carnesville, Westminster, Lavonia, Gumlog,
Demorest, Mount Airy, Martin and Avalon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8335 3474 8310 3457 8298 3427 8326
      3439 8339 3443 8338 3446 8340 3448 8345
      3449 8350 3461 8364 3464 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 043DEG 16KT 3464 8325

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             3 SE WALHALLA           34.74N 83.02W
06/13/2022  E0.75 INCH       OCONEE             SC   PUBLIC

            OBSERVED ALONG BUFFALO RD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
813 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

NCZ503>506-140100-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
813 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central McDowell and
west central Burke Counties through 900 PM EDT...

At 813 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Marion, or 6 miles northeast of B.R.
Parkway-Little Switzerland To Linville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Lake James State Park, Lake James, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To
Little Switzerland, Nebo, North Cove, Pleasant Gardens, Glenwood,
Little Switzerland and Fero.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 8179 3555 8198 3575 8219 3578 8216
      3579 8217 3580 8216 3580 8215 3581 8215
      3582 8213 3582 8212 3585 8210 3585 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 294DEG 11KT 3578 8208

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT