Winter Storm in Georgia, January 16, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1026 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong winter storm will move from the mid-south tonight and
across Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday with significant impacts
expected across the region before departing along the the East Coast
Sunday night. Cold and breezy conditions are expected in the storms
wake on Monday with lingering snow showers near the Tennessee
border. Temperatures will rebound to near normal mid-week ahead of
our next cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM EST Saturday: Main changes this update were a slightly
faster onset of PoPs to match current radar trends, and the tweaking
of temps and dewpoints over the next several hours based on current
OBS. This was to account for faster wet-bulbing, allowing the warm
nose to be less of a factor overnight. For some areas near I-85
where precip was expected to quickly transition to freezing rain, a
slower transition is now expected with mixed precip, (snow and
sleet), and as a result snowfall totals, (which include both snow
and sleet outside the mtns), were bumped up slightly along and south
of portions of I-85.

Winter storm still on track for the forecast area, but the trend
continues for more sleet and freezing rain outside of the NC
mountains and Blue Ridge. A little more sleet and freezing rain than
snow now expected across the in the lower French Broad valley and
the mountains west of the French Broad valley, at least early in the
event.

Precip chances begin ramping up after midnight and better forcing
and deep moisture move in from the west. Expect a combination of
rain or snow as the moisture moves in and evaporational cooling
takes over and cold air damming strengthens outside of the
mountains. The warm nose then kicks in toward morning and moves
north across much of the area. The warm nose, and warming surface
temps, then moves into the Southwestern NC mountains where cold air
damming impacts are normally less. This means a change over to sleet
and freezing rain from south to north and encroaching from the west.
In fact, the lower French Broad valley and Little TN basin will see
warming so that rain may be predominant for several hours. The warm
nose even moves across all the NC mountains with a change over to
sleet.

As the surface low and H85 low move east, the warm nose moves east
as well with colder air moving in behind. This will make a change
back to snow from west to east across the area late in the
afternoon. Precip chances taper off from north to south through the
evening as the low pressure continues to move away from the area.
Snow will linger across the mountains and retreat toward the TN
border as the event shifts to a NW flow snow scenario.

Winds will also be an issue tonight and Sunday as a strong low level
jet moves in with the warm nose. Gusty winds will develop across the
area with potentially strong wind gusts in some locations. Since a
winter warning is already in place across the area, the wind threat
will be included in this warning. Of course, these winds could cause
issues where freezing rain accretion is highest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Saturday...A broad ulvl trof remains over the ern CONUS
thru the short range period, while a winter storm continues to move
north of the area. A few lingering show showers or flurries are
possible across the NC Piedmont/Fthills, while a NWFS event
develops across the mtns. Upstream flow remains moist and a Great
Lakes connection looks to remain in place thru the overnight period
into Tue. Thus, additional snowfall amts of 1-3 inches are probable
during this time, mainly across the TN/NC border zones and
elevations abv 3500 feet. A winter weather advisory may be needed.

Winds will also remain rather stout across the mtns Mon as high
pressure builds in from the west an interacts with sfc trof. With
nw/ly llvl CAA continuing, winds are expected to gust into the 30-40
kt range, while wind chill values fall below freezing across the
higher peaks. Winds and temps look to remain below adv criteria, yet
this situation will be monitored closely over the next couple days.

Max temps will remain abt 10 degrees below normal each day, while
mins bottom out to the low to mid 20s each morning. These cold temps
will create patchy to area of black ice, especially across the NC
mtns and areas more sheltered from drying winds. The continued cold
temps will also make for slowly improving driving conditions across
secondary and untreated roads.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...A couple systems will affect the the fcst
area thru the ext range. The first system will be a quickly forming
cold front crossing Wed night. Enough moisture will be had with this
front and temps will be cold enuf to support -snsh with accums mainly
across the NC mtns thru the day on Thu. Sow amounts will be
lower-end, yet an advisory may be needed abv 3500 feet. Not much
break in an active pattern as the GFS continues to indicate a moist
clipper system reaching the area Fri and producing light snow across
the area including the non/mtns into the weekend due to strong upper
forcing. The ECMWF brings snow as well, yet based on a different
Miller-A type system moving up the Atl coast, while the CMC model is
mostly dry during this timeframe. Thus, have kept PoPs on the low
side thru the latter period. The ECMWF coastal soln will be one to
monitor as there is some agreement had with the CMC in the general
pattern. Temps rebound a little Wed/Thu to near normal, which would
allow for melting snow across the mtns and possibly black ice issues
each morning. Temps drop well below normal Fri and Sat as a 1040 mb
arctic high builds in from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An approaching winter storm will
lead to deteriorating conditions starting tonight into Sunday
morning. As a result, cigs will gradually drop down to MVFR late
this evening before dropping to IFR overnight into early Sunday
morning. These IFR cigs look to stick around throughout the day
Sunday. Vsbys look to drop down to MVFR once the precip starts with
some locations seeing IFR to LIFR vsbys at times with heavier precip
overnight into Sunday. This winter storm will bring a wintry mix
across the entire forecast area tonight into Sunday. Tonight into
early Sunday morning, most precip should start out as -RA for most
of the TAF sites. However, KAVL and KHKY will see precip start as
snow. As temps continue to drop overnight, precip should remain snow
overnight for KAVL and KHKY with the other TAF sites seeing rain
changing over to sleet. Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as
temperatures warm, precip should transition to freezing rain and
sleet. Late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, precip should
gradually transition back to mainly sleet and snow. Winds will also
increase throughout the TAF period, becoming windy by early Sunday
morning. Gusts should be out of the NE for most TAF sites, with KAVL
seeing gusty winds out of the N Sunday morning, becoming SE Sunday
afternoon. LLWS will be mentioned at KAVL as a strong jet is
expected to move overhead. Gusts should relax late Sunday afternoon
into early Sunday evening for all TAF sites.

Outlook: The winter storm moves northeast out of the forecast area
by Sunday night, but snow may linger at KAVL. Gusty N to NW winds
will also linger into Monday. High pressure builds in for Tuesday
then another cold front may affect the area Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EST Monday for GAZ010-017.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST Sunday night for
     GAZ018-026-028.
     Ice Storm Warning until midnight EST Sunday night for GAZ029.
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EST Monday for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST Sunday night for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EST Monday for SCZ001>003.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST Sunday night for
     SCZ004>010.
     Ice Storm Warning until midnight EST Sunday night for
     SCZ011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AP/RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...AP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
345 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

GAZ018-026-028-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-
SCZ004>010-162045-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-
345 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report snow and ice accumulations to our
office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-162045-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
345 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report snow and ice accumulations to our
office.

GAZ029-SCZ011>014-019-162045-
Elbert-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
345 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Ice Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Ice Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report snow and ice accumulations to our
office.