A weak mid level trough over South Florida led to the development of showers and thunderstorms over the near shore Atlantic waters of SE Florida.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
A weak mid level trough over South Florida led to the development of showers and thunderstorms over the near shore Atlantic waters of SE Florida.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 20, 12:02 PM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 102 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Forecast is on track again for today. Low PoPs are in place for immediate coastal locations and the waters and a few showers have developed in these areas. Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to become more numerous as the day progresses and the sea breeze advances inland along with daytime heating. PWATs from this morning's sounding show over 2 inches again, confirming the abundant moisture available that is trapped between two ridges of high pressure. In addition, CAPE values are projected to rise to 3000-3500 J/kg, which is much higher than yesterday. Thus, there will be potential for a few severe thunderstorms today due to wind gusts but there is no hail threat. Mesoscale models are hinting at the sea breeze and gulf breeze converging over parts of the interior, which could produce the strongest storms. Localized flooding and strong wind gusts from thunderstorms/outflow boundaries are the main hazards for today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 South Florida remains situated between two ridges of high pressure, one centered over the Southern Plains and one centered in the western Atlantic. At the same time, a mid level trough will continue to lift northward out of the region, however it will remain close enough to continue to influence the weather pattern for today. At the surface, the remnants of a frontal boundary over Central Florida will help to keep a weak easterly wind flow in place. Plenty of deep layer moisture continues to push into South Florida as PWAT values remain at or above 2 inches throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday as well. This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breezes as they push inland and interact with each other during the afternoon and evening hours. With the weak steering currents in place, combined with plenty of moisture, the storms that do develop will be slow moving and they could contain heavy rainfall. With most of the area already saturated from recent heavy rainfall, this could create the potential for additional localized flooding to occur especially over the metro areas. With the easterly wind flow in place, showers and thunderstorms will form near the east and west coast during the late morning and early afternoon before shifting towards the interior sections during the late afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will remain on the warm side both days as temperatures rise into the upper 80s to around 90 across most areas. Heat index values will be even higher as they will rise into the upper 90s and lower 100s this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 A change in the weather pattern is in store for South Florida during the end of the week as Hurricane Fiona moves northeastward away from the region on Thursday and Friday. This will allow for subsidence to occur over the region as a north northeasterly wind flow develops. While there will still be enough lower level moisture in place to support a chance of shower and thunderstorm development along the sea breezes, the coverage will be limited to due to the drier air mass in place. With an increased amount of sunshine during this time frame, high temperatures will remain on the warm side as they will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s in the afternoon. Moving into the upcoming weekend, the latest ensemble guidance continues to show the ridge of high pressure retrograding back off to the west which will allow for a more zonal flow to develop over South Florida especially during the second half of the weekend. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be pushing southward across the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. The latest guidance shows this front stalling out to the north across the Lake Okeechobee region later on Saturday and into the day on Sunday. Out ahead of this front, moisture advection would take place across South Florida which would once again increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. Uncertainty still remains rather high for this portion of the forecast due to continued differences in the guidance in regards to timing and the intensity of the front as it gets closer to the region. The latest forecast represents a blend of the guidance and increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures will generally remain in the upper 80s to around 90 across South Florida through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Winds have picked up as the sea breeze moves its way inland. Few showers have developed west of the east coast airports and may avoid the sites even as many showers develop into thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. VCTS has been kept in place as a result through the evening before going to VCSH until 02Z tomorrow. VCSH in place to start the period for PBI due to some extra early enhancement there. TEMPO group has been issued for APF between 19-22Z as showers are increasing and thunderstorms appear likely in that time frame. Gulf breeze at APF turns winds more westerly this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 A light to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the local waters through the middle of the week. These winds will gradually become northeasterly for the end of the week as Hurricane Fiona moves off to the northeast in the Atlantic. Seas across the local waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less through the middle of the week. Seas across the Atlantic may start to increase over the weekend as a swell from Hurricane Fiona works in from the northeast. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the middle of the week. These chances will decrease for the end of the week as a drier air mass moves into the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches through the end of the week. The rip current risk may increase across all Atlantic Coast beaches over the weekend as swells from Hurricane Fiona push into the Atlantic waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Deep layer moisture will continue to remain in place across South Florida through the middle of the week. With PWAT values forecasted to remain at or above 2 inches during this time frame, rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour will continue to be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. This, combined with slow storm motion, will continue to keep the potential for localized flooding in place especially across the metro areas that remain saturated from recent heavy rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 90 77 91 / 20 60 30 30 West Kendall 75 91 74 91 / 20 60 30 30 Opa-Locka 77 90 76 91 / 20 60 30 30 Homestead 76 90 75 90 / 20 50 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 78 90 / 20 60 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 78 89 77 90 / 20 60 30 30 Pembroke Pines 77 90 76 90 / 20 60 30 30 West Palm Beach 77 90 76 90 / 20 60 30 30 Boca Raton 77 90 76 91 / 20 50 30 30 Naples 74 90 74 89 / 40 60 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...Redman
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Miami FL 1025 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 211430- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 1025 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 ...Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Developing Today... ...Localized Flooding Continues to be Possible... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic, Biscayne Bay, South Florida, Gulf of Mexico and Lake Okeechobee. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon and into the evening hours. The main hazards will be lightning strikes, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Excessive Rainfall: Heavy downpours are possible with the strongest storms. With storm motion remaining slow, localized flooding is possible, especially where recent heavy rainfall has occurred. Wind: The strongest thunderstorms this afternoon could contain wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for the Palm Beaches. Waterspouts: A few waterspouts are possible over any of the local South Florida waters today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue across South Florida through Wednesday. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with the strongest storms. Localized flooding will also continue to be possible. Chances of showers and thunderstorms become lower for the end of the week before increasing again during the upcoming weekend. Heat index values will continue to be near the triple digits most days, with the highest values observed over inland areas. The risk of rip currents may increase across all Atlantic Coast beaches over the weekend as a northeasterly swell moves into the Atlantic waters. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
813 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0725 AM WATER SPOUT 2 ENE WILTON MANORS 26.17N 80.09W
09/20/2022 AMZ651 FL PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED A WATER SPOUT FROM A WEAK
SHOWER NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH. TIME IS
ESTIMATED.
&&
CFThe Miami radar (KAMX), 121 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:21 UTC.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Palm Beach International Airport tower personnel reported a funnel cloud about 15 miles west of the airport which lasted for less than 10 minutes. No contact with the ground was observed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1056835.