Tropical Storm in Florida, November 10, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1002 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS BRINGING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Storm Nicole is traversing northwest through west-
central FL this morning with outer rainbands brushing the east Big
Bend, Suwannee Valley, and portions of the I-75 corridor. The
strong pressure gradient reinforced by the approaching large
circulation of will continue to pose a widespread wind threat
areawide today. The 12Z KTAE sounding shows 50 kts of east-
northeast flow about 1km above the surface within a stout
inversion up to 850 mb. Daytime mixing should allow stronger winds
to mix down to the surface. Local observations have already been
reporting gusts around 30 mph with gusts up to 48 mph recently
measured at Horseshoe Beach. Expect conditions to worsen further
through the afternoon as a combination of squally rain and strong
winds overspreads much of the Tri-state area.

Pockets of heavy rain remain possible given the rapid transition
to a tropical airmass, so localized flooding is in play from
training bands and/or high rainfall rates during a short period of
time. The forecast PoPs have been adjusted for current radar and
the latest hi-res model trends. Highest probabilities are at or
near 100% mainly along/east of Nicole's projected track. The axis
of greatest precipitation looks to gradually northwestward through
today. Considerable cloud cover should keep high temperatures in
the low to mid 70s. Lastly, here is a low-end tornadic threat
confined mostly to the I-75 corridor, so a couple brief/rapid
spin-ups cannot be ruled out.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Storm Nicole made landfall along the FL east coast early
this Thursday morning. Nicole will slowly weaken this morning
while crossing the FL Peninsula, moving northwest through
Apalachee Bay and the FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening.
Nicole will turn north through Southwest Georgia tonight, exiting
into the Carolinas on Friday.

To the north of Nicole, there is a large area of tight pressure
gradients between the 1030 mb high over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and
the tropical cyclone. Pressure gradients supporting northeast
winds will peak during the day today. In addition, these gradients
appear to actually peak over SW GA from mid-day into this
afternoon. The NAM time-height section over ABY shows 2,000-foot
winds of 50-60 knots from 18z-21z today, coinciding with the peak
of thermal mixing and the leading edge of the rain shield, which
could briefly aid in downward transport of momentum. We already
expanded the Tropical Storm Warning to cover all of Southwest
Georgia during the Wednesday evening update, and this still looks
like a good call. A few locations in the Tropical Storm Warning
area could get a peak wind gust of 50-60 mph, even up into SW GA.
Otherwise, a Wind Advisory is in effect for our Central Time Zone
counties due to forecast northerly gusts of 30-45 mph. Expect tree
damage and power outages today.

Otherwise, a large rain shield will arrive in advance of the
center of Nicole. Widespread rainfall of 2-3 inches is forecast,
limited partly by the moderate forward speed of the cyclone. By
most standards, this will be beneficial rain given the ongoing
drought, but it could become locally excessive where heavy rain is
prolonged by any rain bands that start to train, or perhaps pivot
around a point. Rain should overspread areas along and southeast
of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers by mid-day, then spread into
the Central Time Zone counties this afternoon.

Storm surge is a concern around the shores of Apalachee Bay.
Offshore flow currently has tides running below tide table
predictions, but a sudden turn to south and southwest winds will
occur once the center of Nicole moves onshore early this evening.
The current negative tidal anomaly will quickly reverse, and storm
surge flooding will begin. Storm surge flooding will peak during
the time of high tide tonight. If the center passes across water,
then 3- 5 foot surge is expected to the right of the center's
second landfall along the Forgotten Coast. The amount of impacted
shoreline will increase if the center tracks left of forecast. If
the center fails to re-emerge over the Gulf, then storm surge will
be less than forecast. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect east of
the Ochlockonee River. The Franklin County coast has a Storm
Surge Watch, to account for any leftward wobbles in the track that
would increase surge potential there.

Otherwise, the tornado threat will remain well to the right of
the center, likely remaining confined east of the I-75 corridor in
South Georgia. This is where surface dewpoints will climb the
highest and enough instability could develop to interact with the
sheared low- level wind field.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 412 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Nicole will exit northeast through the Carolinas on Friday while
undergoing extratropical transition. Winds over the tri-state area
will gradually decrease. The mid-levels will dry out, so any
lingering rain in the morning will end in the afternoon. Some
lingering moisture below about 5,000-8,000 feet will keep skies
mostly cloudy and gray at times through Saturday.

A progressive upper trough will move east past the Mississippi
River on Saturday, pushing a cold front across the service area
late Saturday. Due to shallowness of moisture, it should mainly be
a dry cold frontal passage. Behind the front, the air mass will
start to dry out late in the day over AL and GA, and breaks in the
overcast will emerge and expand.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Following the passage of a cold front earlier in the weekend,
drier and cooler air will filter into the region. The cold front
will stall in the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday evening. A
shortwave trough is expected to develop over the Southwest US and
travel east, picking up the stalled front from the gulf on its way
toward the Southeast US. This will bring another chance for rain
by Tuesday into Wednesday. PoPs range 30%-50%, with higher chances
in the west. Temperatures for the long term will begin with Highs
in the low 60s on Sunday and gradually warm to the low 70s,
before the next front on Tuesday bringing afternoon temperatures
back to the 60s for Wednesday. Overnight Lows will range from the
upper 30s in SE AL and SW GA, and low 40s across the FL Panhandle
to start the term. As the week continues, Low temperatures will
range from the upper 40s to low 50s ahead of the front. Following
the front, temperatures will fall again to the low/mid 40s to end
the Long Term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Flight conditions will deteoriate from southeast to northwest due to
the arrival of Nicole. Rain and IFR conditions will overspread the
area through the day and areas including east of ABY-TLH line will
have the strongest wind today and tonight. Some gusts in these areas
and along and near the track of Nicole could be on the order of 40-
50 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

At 4 am EST, the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near
Vero Beach, Florida, or about 265 miles east-southeast of Saint
Marks. Nicole will weaken slowly this morning while crossing the
Florida Peninsula, then pass northwest through Apalachee Bay this
afternoon and evening. Nicole is producing a large area of
tropical storm force winds, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over the waters beginning this morning and lasting until
about Friday morning. Nicole will exit through the Carolinas on
Friday. A cold front move south across the waters late Saturday,
followed by fresh and strong northerlies. Winds will clock around
through the northeast and east on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 412 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Other than high dispersions, fire weather concerns are low with
widespread rain expected to move across the area today and
tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 412 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

A large area of moderate to heavy rain will overspread areas
along and east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers through mid-
day, expanding west of there this afternoon and early evening.
Storm- total rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches should be common,
with locally higher amounts to near 4 inches. Ongoing drought
conditions and low-flow rivers will be able to handle most of that
rain. However, localized flash flooding is possible where cell
training or a pivoting rain band prolongs heavy rainfall rates.
This is especially the case in urban areas. No river flooding is
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  63  78  61 / 100  90  40   0
Panama City   73  64  77  64 /  90  90  10   0
Dothan        71  62  75  56 /  90 100  30   0
Albany        71  63  74  58 / 100 100  60   0
Valdosta      74  65  77  60 / 100 100  60   0
Cross City    75  66  80  63 / 100  90  60   0
Apalachicola  71  65  77  65 / 100  80  30   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for FLZ007>014-108-112-114.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ015>019-026>029-034-115-118-127-
     128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk from 3 PM EST this afternoon through
     Friday evening for FLZ108-112.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ114-115.

     Storm Surge Watch for FLZ115.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ118-127-128-134.

GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ALZ065>069.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ730-752-755-765-772-775.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for GMZ750-770.

&&

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Haner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
856 AM EST THU NOV 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 AM     TROPICAL STORM   HORSESHOE BEACH         29.44N 83.29W
11/10/2022                   GMZ765             FL   MESONET

            41 MPH WIND GUST OBSERVED AT HORSESHOE BEACH
            WEATHERSTEM SITE.

&&

EB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EST THU NOV 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TROPICAL STORM   CROSS CITY AIRPORT      29.63N 83.11W
11/10/2022                   DIXIE              FL   AWOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST TO 39 MPH AT THE CROSS
            CITY (KCTY) AWOS.

&&

EB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1043 AM EST THU NOV 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     TROPICAL STORM   HORSESHOE POINT         29.44N 83.29W
11/10/2022                   DIXIE              FL   MESONET

            MEASURED SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH WITH A
            GUST TO 52 MPH AT THE HORSESHOE BEACH
            MESONET.

&&

EB