Hail in Florida, May 13, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
228 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022

.DISCUSSION...
A large mid/upper-level low remains over the region this afternoon
while the Florida peninsula sits in between a weak surface trough to
the east and weak high pressure over the Gulf. With this pattern in
place and with sufficient moisture, some shower and thunderstorm
activity has already popped up along the sea breeze boundaries and
these will continue to generally shift inland through the rest of
the evening. Would not be shocked to get an isolated stronger storm
later this evening as the boundaries come together with pretty cold
mid-level temps between about -13 and -14 deg C, but certainly not
expecting anything widespread. Any leftover storms will slowly
dissipate after sunset.

Residual troughing will remain aloft over the region through the
weekend and into early next week, with weak surface high pressure
continuing. Rain chances remain fairly low through this period, but
a few showers and maybe a storm or two will be possible inland.

Zonal flow finally develops mid to late week, with the Atlantic
ridge axis dominant across the central Florida peninsula. Still not
much rain chance, however, with just a few inland showers possible.
Overall, a rather dry and warm period coming up.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected outside of any thunderstorm activity.
Most of the showers and storms have already moved away from the
immediate coast, so the best chances will remain for KLAL with some
lingering convection possible across southwest Florida. These storms
should generally dissipate within an hour or two after sunset. Winds
become light tonight and then eventually west/northwest Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines are expected for the next several days. Light winds
each night will increase a bit and become onshore in the afternoon,
but remain below 15 knots. Rain chances remain very low over the
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  71  89  73  90 /  10  10  10  10
FMY  68  91  70  91 /  10  10  10  10
GIF  68  92  70  93 /  20  20  30  20
SRQ  67  86  70  87 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  63  89  65  91 /  10  10  10  20
SPG  71  85  74  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 1

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

05/Carlisle

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
520 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022

FLZ165-265-132200-
Inland Lee FL-Coastal Lee FL-
520 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Lee
County through 600 PM EDT...

At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lochmoor Waterway Estates, or near Fort Myers. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Coral, Fort Myers, McGregor, East Dunbar, Pine Manor, Matlacha,
Matlacha Isles-Matlacha Shores, Palmona Park, Lochmoor Waterway
Estates, Cypress Lake, Villas, Iona, Buckingham, Whiskey Creek, North
Fort Myers, Page Field Airport, Suncoast Estates, Tice, Page Park and
Fort Myers Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2664 8211 2677 8197 2673 8173 2652 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 295DEG 0KT 2664 8191

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW