The region was between a weak coastal low to the NNE and a surface high pressure ridge axis stretching from near Bermuda into central FL. Tropical airmass is in place with precipitable water amounts of 2 inches allowing storms to produce heavy rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
The region was between a weak coastal low to the NNE and a surface high pressure ridge axis stretching from near Bermuda into central FL. Tropical airmass is in place with precipitable water amounts of 2 inches allowing storms to produce heavy rainfall. The Atlantic coast sea breeze was pinned to the coast as the Gulf sea breeze moved inland through the afternoon. The sea breezes converged along the I-95 corridor in the late afternoon. Heavy downpours and slow storm motion led to localized flash and urban flooding in downtown Jacksonville.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 11:55 AM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1255 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 1800 UTC Sunday] SHRA/TSRA will continue to increase in coverage during the remainder of the afternoon...focused on the 20z-00z period in TAFs. Gusty winds and sharply reduced visibility in heavy downpours should be expected in TSRA. Activity will gradually diminish during the evening, otherwise VFR Tonight and Sunday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION [818 AM EDT]... .UPDATE... Only minor tweaks to current forecast planned for update. Latest high-res model guidance somewhat conflicted on the coverage of convection this afternoon, but still expect greatest coverage to be over eastern FL counties possibly up to Brunswick GA area with eastern convergence of sea breezes, given moist airmass in place with precip water values of 2.0+ across the area. High temperatures Today will be in the lower 90s, close to normal for the time of year. && .MARINE... Low pressure well north of the waters will slowly pull away northeast of the region through the holiday weekend and this will provide a mainly south to southwest flow with abundant shower and thunderstorm activity along with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall at times. A bermuda high pressure ridge will build across the local waters next week and provide a general southerly flow with less thunderstorm activity and local southeast flow closer to the coast during the afternoon hours. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at all NE FL and SE GA beaches through Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION [708 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Skies are partly cloudy to mostly cloudy early this morning for most areas as a swath of rich moisture remains over the region between a weak coastal low to the NNE and a surface high pressure ridge axis stretching from near Bermuda just to our south into central FL. Light SW flow is in place between these two features with muggy dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and temperatures just a notch higher in the mid/upper 70s at this hour. Despite locally heavy rainfall in a few locations along the Altamaha river basin in SE GA, along highway 441 in NE FL and into the southern St Johns river basin, and along the first coast at Jacksonville beach And Fernandina Beach west towards Yulee, the cloud cover and the presence of light winds has not allowed much in the way of patchy fog to materialize, but cannot be completely ruled out before sunrise in the aforementioned spots. Another day with at least numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the early afternoon hours SW flow between the pinwheeling coastal low moving NE along the Carolina coast and the Bermuda high ridge axis to the south will allow the Gulf coast seabreeze to move inland late this morning into the early afternoon hours initiating scattered showers and a few T'storms before encountering and merging with the Atlantic sea breeze pinned between I-95 and the first coast. Warmer than average 500 mb temperatures will limit severe storm potential again like Friday with the main impacts likely brief wet downburst 40-50 mph with frequent lightning. The slow storm motion aloft high PWAt values over 2 inches will contribute to locally heavy rainfall amounts that will promote a localized flash and urban flooding threat through early this evening. Winds will be from the WSW west of I-95 5-10 mph and become south to southeasterly along coastal locations behind the Atlantic seabreeze 10-15 mph. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as a mix of low and high clouds filter sunshine enough to limit highs to near normal levels around 90-93F inland and in the 87-90F range at the coast. Tonight, storms will dissipate an hour or two after sunset with the last of showers pulling off into the Atlantic from the coast of NE FL. Multilayer debris clouds will remain and keep skies mostly cloudy overnight with humid conditions after the rainfall and light southerly winds overnight. Again, some patchy fog will be possible over areas that receive locally heavy rainfall with lows in the low/mid 70s. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]... The Bermuda-Azores high will ridge back across south-central Florida with a weak upper and surface trough across Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. This pattern will continue through Monday with afternoon and evening convection each day firing along the western periphery of the ridge and mainly along the Gulf Sea Breeze front. While some convection may continue during the overnight and early morning hours the majority of it should diminish by midnight each night. Temperatures will be near climatology for the period with the highest rainfall chances 50-60 percent chance on Sunday. While nature will produce natural fireworks on Monday, right now thinking the vast majority of areas should be able to get the man made fireworks in. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The ridge and trough will meander a bit across the region during the long term period but we will be in a stagnant pattern with afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day and a few showers continuing overnight. Temperatures will be near to slight above climatology during the period with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to near 100 over SE GA and the Suwannee Valley on Wednesday and Thursday. .HYDROLOGY... Locally Heavy rainfall amounts are possible each afternoon this weekend with localized and Urban flooding potential from slow moving thunderstorms over areas that received locally heavy rainfall the past couple of days including Jacksonville Beach and the west side of Jacksonville where 2-3 inches of rain fell yesterday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 72 92 72 92 / 60 30 70 30 60 SSI 89 76 90 77 90 / 60 40 50 40 50 JAX 91 74 91 76 91 / 70 60 70 30 60 SGJ 89 75 90 76 89 / 60 60 50 30 50 GNV 91 72 91 72 92 / 60 50 70 30 70 OCF 91 74 92 73 92 / 60 40 70 30 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1048 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE FIVE POINTS 30.23N 82.64W
06/29/2022 COLUMBIA FL EMERGENCY MNGR
DELAYED REPORT: DOWNED TREE IMPACTED A
MOBILE HOME.
&&
WLCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A personal weather observation station Grand Haven - KFLPALMC233 measured 3.80 inches of rainfall. The rain began around 2:40 PM EDT. Surrounding weather stations range from 2.5 to 3.5 inches.
A personal weather observation station BELLEMEADE - KFLJACKS3932. The rain began around 4:40 PM EDT. Surrounding stations ranged from 2 to 3 inches of rainfall. A flood warning was in effect.
Street flooding on the on ramp of the Hart bridge in Jacksonville with a vehicle stalled in the flood water. About 2 to 3 inches of rain had fallen. A flood warning was in effect.
Market street just north of the intersection with 10th St. was flooded. Water depth was up to the bottom of the car door. About 2 to 3 inches of rain had fallen. Report was sent via social media. A flood warning was in effect.
Duval county emergency manager reported street flooding with a vehicle stalled at the intersection of Haines street and 8th street. About 2 to 3 inches of rain had fallen. A flood warning was in effect.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1039093, 1039104, 1039099, 1039102, 1039103.