Southwest steering flow and plenty of moisture at the surface and aloft led to scattered to numerous showers and storms that tracked Gulf Coast during the morning under SW steering flow toward the Atlantic Coastal Waters into the evening, with storm enhancement when lake, river, sea breezes and outflows merged during the afternoon and evening hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Southwest steering flow and plenty of moisture at the surface and aloft led to scattered to numerous showers and storms that tracked Gulf Coast during the morning under SW steering flow toward the Atlantic Coastal Waters into the evening, with storm enhancement when lake, river, sea breezes and outflows merged during the afternoon and evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 12:23 PM EST, 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 123 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Wednesday] Two distinct bands of convection have set up one from Saint Augustine to Cedar Key and a second from near Tallahassee to near Brunswick. Convection is moving east-northeast along the bands and expect it to move through the Jacksonville and KSSI areas through 20/02 utc with TEMPO groups covering that possibility. Right now going thunder but future amendments may reduce to showers. Some brief heavy rainfall with visibility to 1SM is occuring with some storms but will keep the TEMPO groups up at 3SM. Overnight clearing in most areas, but might see some light ground fog at Gainesville and Cecil Airport, especially if they see decent rainfall today and reduced cloud coverage overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION [910 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Southwest steering flow and plenty of moisture at the surface and aloft will lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms tracking from the Gulf Coast this morning across NE FL/SE GA through the afternoon hours and into the Atlantic Coastal Waters this evening. Overall storm coverage may be slightly less than previous days with most locations having 40-60% measurable rainfall chances. Despite the storms still expect most locations to reach into the lower 90s, with a few middle 90s possible along the I-95 corridor where storms arrive later on today. This heat combined with low level moisture in the form of dew point temps in the mid/upper 70s will lead to peak Heat Indices around 105 degrees along the I-95 corridor urban centers from Brunswick to JAX to St Augustine, and in the 100-105 range further inland where convection starts earlier. A few isolated strong storms with gusty winds are expected, especially as they reach the East Coast sea breeze which will be pinned close to the Atlantic beaches or a couple of miles just off the coast. Most of the diurnal convection will be complete by sunset with a few showers/storms lingering through the overnight hours along the Gulf Coast that will push into the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL at times. Humid overnight lows in the mid/upper 70s inland and around 80 along the coast. .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]... A surface ridge of high pressure will be positioned over the Florida peninsula Wednesday and Thursday while an upper level trough swings across the US Southeast. The trough will provide upper level support for convective development on Wednesday, then begin to pull away from the area on Thursday. PWATs are forecast to be 1.7-2.1 inches on Wednesday, but slightly drier at 1.6-2 inches on Thursday. These factors combined with diurnal heating will support scattered to numerous (55-65% PoP) showers and storms during the day on Wednesday and scattered (40-50% PoP) showers and storms during the day on Thursday. Southwesterly flow will continue with precipitation moving in off the Gulf of Mexico in the mornings and spreading northeast through the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will trend just slightly above normal. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s, and lows will be in the middle to upper 70s. Heat indices each afternoon are expected to reach 100-106 degrees, remaining just below heat advisory criteria. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]... The upper level trough will continue to lift northeast away from the region on Friday, and surface high pressure will remain situated overhead through the long term period. Diurnal heating and sea breeze development will result in daily rounds of afternoon showers and storms. Southwesterly flow will continue on Friday, but will be weaker than the previous two days. This will allow the Atlantic sea breeze to move in slightly further along the I-95 corridor in the afternoon. Friday will feature the highest precipitation chances due to upper level support with the trough. Saturday through Monday, winds will be light and allow both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to move inland. Precipitation chances will gradually decrease Saturday through Monday with only scattered precipitation expected. Temperatures will continue to be hot with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Lows will continue to be in the middle to upper 70s. Heat indices 100-106 degrees are expected each afternoon. .MARINE... Southwest flow will continue most of the week with High pressure ridge axis south of the waters, with a shift to South flow and local SE sea breeze this weekend as ridge breaks down and settles east of the local waters. Main threat will be scattered storms pushing into the coastal waters from the land areas during the afternoon and early evening hours with gusty winds, lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Rip Currents: Moderate risk for NE FL beaches and Low Risk for SE GA beaches with surf/breakers around 2 feet. .HYDROLOGY... Storm activity should be moving fast enough to prevent any significant flooding issues, and will be mainly diurnal in nature. Highest rainfall totals will likely be along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL where multiple rounds of storms are possible each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 92 74 93 74 / 40 40 10 40 20 SSI 78 92 78 92 78 / 40 50 10 50 20 JAX 76 93 75 95 75 / 40 50 10 50 10 SGJ 76 92 76 93 76 / 20 50 10 50 10 GNV 75 92 73 94 73 / 30 50 10 40 0 OCF 75 92 74 94 74 / 20 40 10 30 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1149 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022
FLZ340-191615-
Western Marion FL-
1149 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022
...Thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall. will impact portions of
northwestern Marion County through 1215 PM EDT...
At 1148 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Williston to 8 miles northeast of Rainbow
Lakes Estates. Movement was east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Flemington.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2922 8243 2922 8240 2923 8240 2946 8241
2949 8236 2949 8229 2946 8227 2943 8226
2938 8223 2935 8222 2928 8220 2919 8219
2917 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1548Z 254DEG 22KT 2939 8240 2926 8240
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SANDRIKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1210 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022
FLZ033-125-133-325-191645-
Coastal St. Johns FL-South Central Duval FL-Coastal Duval FL-
Inland St. Johns FL-
1210 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022
...A strong thunderstorm, with heavy rainfall, will impact portions
of northern St. Johns and southeastern Duval Counties through 1245
PM EDT...
At 1208 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Durbin, or 8 miles east of Fruit Cove, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and minor flooding due to heavy
rainfall.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Fruit Cove, Ponte Vedra Beach, World Golf Village, Palm Valley,
Sawgrass, South Ponte Vedra, Nocatee, Bayard, Durbin and Guana River
State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Visibility will be reduced to less than 1 mile.
For boaters on or near the Intracoastal waterway, between South
Jacksonville Beach and Saint Augustine, move to a safe shelter now!
Do not be caught on or near the water. Gusty winds and choppy waves
are likely. Make sure all on board are wearing life jackets.
&&
LAT...LON 2995 8158 3012 8165 3026 8135 3001 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 250DEG 18KT 3009 8148
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SANDRIKThe Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 116 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:57 UTC.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Lightning struck a home in Palm Coast and caused minimal fire damage. The cost of damage was estimated for Storm Data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1042326.