NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 15, 4:49 AM EST, 11 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 15, 4:49 AM EST, 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
449 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will bring a mixture of wintry weather early
Thursday before transitioning to all rain for locations outside
of the southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey midday
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will build throughout the
weekend and into the middle of next week with below normal
temperatures in store.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of early this morning, precipitation is starting to move in to
northern Delmarva. So far it is all rain. However, there remain some
pretty large dew point depressions, so have not adjusted the weather
type at onset significantly as there still appears to be a chance,
at least for the next few hours for a brief period of wintry mix.
What has changed: for most of the region, few changes were made
through storm system. The exception is in the southern Poconos and
NW NJ. some of the high res models, including the NAM, are depicting
a deeper and more persistent cold layer in these areas. This is not
surprising given the set up for some cold air damming in these areas.
Thus, temperatures were decreased, and for the overnight period,
weather type was changed to rain or snow as the high res model
soundings aren't supporting wintry mix by that point. The net result
was that snow amounts slightly increased in these areas, so Carbon
County was changed to a winter storm warning.
Timing: Some high res guidance is depicting the precipitation moving
out quicker. However, I haven't adjusted PoPs significantly as this
would be unusual for a system which is going through cyclogensis.
Below are the details of the hazards with this system.
Wintry precipitation: As mentioned above for most of the region,
there were few changes from the previous forecast. Most areas will
only see a brief period of wintry mix at the onset of the precip (if
that) before a change over to all rain. Thus, for most of the region
snow and ice amounts will be light, but even these light amounts
could lead to slippery conditions within the advisory areas. The
northeasterly flow, and thus cold air damming, should be more
persistent in the southern Poconos and NW NJ (especially Carbon and
Monroe Counties). While we may not get quite to warning criteria for
much of these counties with either snow or ice, the cumulative
impacts of both ice and snow (along with breezy conditions) will
likely lead to more significant impacts than one would typically see
with these snow and ice amounts alone.
Heavy Rain/flooding: Total precipitation amounts remain in the 1 to
2 inch range. Additional information is available in the hydro
section below.
Winds: Wind advisory conditions are expected to be confined to
coastal areas, so no changes made to the advisory at this time.
However in Carbon and Monroe County, while wind gusts are expected
to top out around 40 mph (below wind advisory criteria), the
combination of this with snow and ice accumulations could lead to
additional impacts.
By Friday, the center of the low should begin to start moving away
from the region. With the shift to northwesterly flow, dry air
advection should help to bring an end to the precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By early Friday evening, with the low continuing to move away
from the area, the majority of the region will be dry. Depending
on how quickly the low exits the region, there is a chance that
some light precipitation remains in the northern part of our
area, particularly in the Poconos and northwest New Jersey. With
cold air beginning to be advected in behind the exiting low, a
very brief transition back to snow/wintry mix cannot be entirely
ruled out but little to no accumulation would be expected if
this does occur. In any case, any precipitation that does remain
should fully exit the region by midnight.
Heading into Saturday, higher pressure will begin to build into
the area resulting in a gradual clearing of skies. High
temperatures Saturday will be close to normal for much of the
area with low to mid 40s for most locations with mid to upper
30s in the northwestern part of the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast for the long term remains largely unchanged. A period
of dry and cold weather remains in store for the area.
Higher pressure will continue to gradually build into the area
from the west but will remain centered to the south of the area.
This will keep consistent westerly to northwesterly flow in
place for multiple days. As a result, cold air will continue to
advect into the area as well. High temperatures Sunday through
Wednesday will generally be in the mid to upper 30s with upper
20s at higher elevations and lower 40s closer to the coast. Low
temperatures each night will fall into the 20s with teens
possible in the Poconos.
With strong high pressure over much of the eastern U.S.,
precipitation will hold off through at least the mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...Starting VFR most areas, but expecting ceilings and
visibility to quickly drop to MVFR around daybreak and then IFR by
late Thursday morning in tandem with precipitation overspreading the
region. Precipitation will begin on either side of 12z for all
terminals. A short window of snow showers is possible at
precipitation onset for the I-95 terminals and KRDG/KABE, before
transitioning to a few hour period of a wintry mix of snow/freezing
rain/rain/possible sleet. KMIV/KACY are expected to have only a
brief rain/snow mix. By early afternoon, all terminals except
KRDG/KABE should be all rain; it may stay a wintry mix for much of
the day at KRDG and KABE. Easterly winds 10-25 kt with gusts up to
35 kt, with gusts up to 40 kt possible at KACY. High confidence in
IFR or lower conditions, low confidence in exact timing.
Tonight...Continuing with IFR and LIFR conditions for most, if not
all of the overnight period, primarily for low ceilings.
Visibilities may start to improve close to 06Z as the coverage of
rain showers decreases from SW to NE, but low ceilings should
linger. There is a small risk for thunderstorms at KMIV and KACY
between 00 and 06Z, but have not included it in the TAFs at this
point as the risk is too low. Easterly winds continue at 10 to 25 kt
with higher gusts, especially at KACY. Moderate confidence on the
overall pattern, but low confidence on details.
Outlook...
Friday...IFR conditions with rain showers continuing through at
least the first half of the day with gradual improvement to VFR for
the evening. Easterly winds, shifting northwesterly by the
afternoon, at 10-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Moderate confidence
on the overall pattern, low confidence in exact timing.
Saturday through Monday...VFR. Westerly winds 10 to 15 kts gusting
up to 20 kts during the day each day, decreasing to 5 to 10 kts each
night. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Easterly winds will increase through the day, with gale conditions
expected everywhere by this evening. There is a potential for gusts
to approach storm force - this is a set up which tends to produce
wind gusts higher than guidance - but at this point, the potential
appears too low to issue a storm warning.
Late tonight continuing through Friday morning, there will be a
shift to westerly and southwesterly winds. With this shift, wind
speeds will quickly decrease, though gusts near 25 kt will still be
possible, and it will take time for seas to subside.
Outlook...
Friday Night through Saturday...SCA conditions likely. Westerly
winds 20 to 25 kts gusting up to 30 kts. Seas of 6 to 8 feet
gradually decreasing to 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday Night through Monday...SCA conditions possible. Westerly
winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts of up to 25 kts. Seas of 3 to 5 feet.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
One to two inches of liquid is expected HSA-wide by the time the
precipitation ends Friday. By late Thursday, everywhere except the
Poconos and NW NJ should see just plain rain. So with most of the
precipitation falling as plain rain across much of the area, we will
have to content with some runoff.
The rain should increase in intensity Thursday evening. It's at this
time where nuisance and low lying flooding is most likely to
develop. It's not February and the ground isn't frozen in most
areas. This will allow some water to work its way sub-surface. On
the other hand, it's still the time of year where leaves can hamper
drainage. If you plan to be on the road Thursday night, be aware
that minor roadway flooding is possible.
The bulk of the runoff will start hitting area creeks/streams/rivers
Thursday night and continue through Friday. We are not expecting any
of our forecast points to reach flood stage at this point, but we
will likely get close at Blackwell's Mills.
As mentioned, at this time, we are thinking 1 to 2 inches of liquid.
As a contingency, if the Raritan or the Passaic basins end up
receiving more than 2 inches of rain across a large portion, a
forecast point or two (Blackwell's Mills and Pine Brook) will be
more prone to seeing water levels approaching/reaching flood
stage.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A developing coastal low will increase the risk for coastal flooding
Thursday night into Friday. Onshore (easterly and northeasterly)
flow appears likely from Thursday morning through Friday morning.
This set up will increase the risk for coastal flooding for the
Atlantic ocean front and Delaware Bay. While less certain, it
appears there is a low risk for tidal flooding on tidal portions of
the Delaware river. Tidal flooding is not expected on the
northeastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay.
With this timing, the good news is that the peak of the storm surge
will be with the lower of the two daily astronomical high tides on
Thursday night. Also, this will fall pretty much right on the
quarter moon, meaning even the higher of the astronomical tides will
still be more than 2 ft below minor flood thresholds on the Atlantic
oceanfront. These factors should help to keep the magnitude of tidal
flooding, if it occurs, in the minor category even on the Atlantic
oceanfront and Delaware Bay. While the peak surge will be with the
Thursday night high tide, higher tidal levels may persist with the
Friday high tide, especially for back bays.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ070-071-
101>106.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Friday for PAZ054-055.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ060>062.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NJZ016>019.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday for
NJZ022>025.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight EST
tonight for NJZ001-007.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for
NJZ013-014-020-026-027.
DE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for DEZ001.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday for
DEZ003-004.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MDZ012-
015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening
for ANZ430-431-450>452.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday for
ANZ430-431.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Friday for
ANZ450>452.
Gale Warning from noon today to 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ453>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...AKL/DeSilva
NEAR TERM...Johnson
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/Johnson
MARINE...AKL/Johnson
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...