A warm frontal moved into the area overnight June 12 into early in the morning on june 13th allowing for thunderstorms to develop. These thunderstorms trained over southern Fairfield County in Connecticut and produced rainfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour.
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The episode as NWS OKX wrote it up.
A warm frontal moved into the area overnight June 12 into early in the morning on june 13th allowing for thunderstorms to develop. These thunderstorms trained over southern Fairfield County in Connecticut and produced rainfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour. Total rainfall accumulations of 1.5 to 2 inches were reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 10:03 PM EST, 3 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1103 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the west and weakens across the area on Monday. High pressure will then build in from the northwest Monday night into Wednesday, and moves off shore Wednesday night. A warm front moves across the area later Thursday followed by a cold front Friday into Friday night. High pressure build in behind the cold front and settles over the region late next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Updated the forecast for PoPs as a shortwave passes through, and with a veering profile, helping to sustain showers with isolated TSTMs and brief moderate to heavy downpours. Even after the shortwave shifts east, a trailing cold front with available moisture and CAPE may produce showers and an isolated thunderstorm, so left in at least chc PoPs for the late night hours as the front slows down and begins to stall. Lows tonight will be warm, generally in the middle to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Any convection pushing east overnight is likely exiting the area by Monday morning, though there may be some lingering showers or storms in the eastern portions of the area. With the washed out front generally over the area, some redevelopment of some showers is possible along the coast during the morning and early afternoon. While not expected, a brief weak thunderstorm can't be entirely ruled out. Otherwise, weak high pressure begins to move in from the northwest with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear and temperatures rising into the middle to upper 80s for much of the area. Lows on Monday night will be slightly cooler with drier air over the area, generally in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Models seem to have a fairly consistent grasp on an MCS approaching the area from the Great Lakes region late Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Most keep the MCS south of the area with only the NYC metro and NE NJ possibly seeing some brief showers or some morning cloud cover. WHile it looks likely that the area remains dry, the exact path of the MCS depends heavily on how the MCS develops upstream. Aside from some morning cloud cover to the SE associated with the MCS, much of Tuesday is dry with skies generally clear as high pressure remains over the area. Temperatures on Tuesday rise into the low to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Heights will be rising across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday as a full latitude ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to southern Canada builds toward the east coast. As a northern stream trough moves into the upper midwest and Great Lakes region Wednesday night and Thursday the upper ridge will weaken and move into the western Atlantic. The northern stream trough then moves through the northeast and mid Atlantic Friday into Friday night. This is slightly slower than the previous forecast. Mainly used the NBM guidance, with some adjustments to probabilities Thursday and Friday as the frontal system impacts the region. Late Wednesday into Wednesday evening isentropic lift will be increasing ahead of a surface warm front, and push slowly east into Thursday as the warm front moves through the area. There will be little CAPE or instability until Thursday afternoon in the warm airmass behind the front, and will have a slight chance for thunderstorms into Thursday night. The chances for precipitation will continue Friday into Friday night with the cold frontal passage. The airmass will destabilize once again Friday afternoon with CAPE 1000 to 1500 J/kg and higher surface based instability than Thursday, with little to no cap in place. Will have a chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Dry weather returns behind the cold front and remains into the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front approaches tonight, and then weakens and stalls while settling over the area on Monday. Mostly VFR lowering to MVFR/IFR near or shortly after midnight, then improving to VFR during the Monday morning push. Showers will be most likely until around 06-07z, but still a chance of a shower for the remainder of the night - just not enough confidence to include showers in TAFs after this point. Iso TSTM not out of the question, but again, too low of a probability to include in the TAFs. Winds SE-S under 10 kt bcmg SW after midnight and diminishing. Winds then bcmg W during the morning push and increasing through the morning. Mainly W winds around 10 kt in the afternoon, but backed more toward WSW for KJFK/KBDR/KGON. Gusts 15-19 kt for some of the terminals. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of flight category changes may be off by a couple of hours. There's a chance that IFR never occurs. Iso TSTM possible. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday night...VFR. .Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...MVFR possible with chance of rain showers. .Friday...MVFR possible with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... No changes were made to the winds and seas. Minor changes were made to lower probabilities for showers through early this evening. While there may be some gusts close to 20 kt and seas near 4 feet this evening, conditions on all waters stay sub-SCA through Thursday. Increasing southerly wind ahead of a cold front Thursday into Thursday night will allow for wind gusts on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet to near SCA levels and seas to build to around 5 feet. As a cold front moves through Friday into Friday night ocean seas east of Moriches Inlet may linger around 5 feet. The remainder of the forecast waters will remain below SCA levels Thursday night through Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... There is a low chance of some pockets of minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas with any heavier rainfall associated with any thunderstorms tonight. There is the potential for locally moderate to heavy rainfall with thunderstorms Friday. The storms are forecast to be quick moving, and there is also uncertainty as to the areal coverage of these storms at this time. Hydrologic impacts are possible Friday with minor poor drainage flooding. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... With a full moon approaching on Tuesday, astronomical tides will promote the chance of minor coastal flooding for the high tide cycles during the late afternoon/evening hours from tonight through at least Wednesday. Statements or advisories could be needed for each of these days, mainly for the south shore back bays of Nassau County and Queens, as well as the SW CT coast and Southern Westchester counties. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MET/MW NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JC MARINE...MET/MW HYDROLOGY...MET/MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 325 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-131930- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 325 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather that would meet NWS warning criteria is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-131930- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 325 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather that would meet NWS warning criteria is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:36 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
I-95 Northbound all lanes closed between exits 8 and 9 dur to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Connecticut in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Connecticut, June 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1041760.