A large area of slow moving light to moderate rainfall moved through East Central Colorado during the morning into the early afternoon. A couple rounds of prolonged moderate rainfall moved over eastern Yuma County during this timeframe.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
A large area of slow moving light to moderate rainfall moved through East Central Colorado during the morning into the early afternoon. A couple rounds of prolonged moderate rainfall moved over eastern Yuma County during this timeframe. Close to three inches of rainfall occurred. The rainfall caused water to flow over Highway 385 almost a half mile north of the Highway 385/36 intersection.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 4:55 AM MST, 5 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 555 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 550 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Convection in Cheyenne/Kit Carson counties (CO) has weakened the past few hours.. and additional heavy rainfall is not anticipated. With this in mind, the Flood Watch has been expired. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Today-Tonight: Yet another challenging forecast. As of 10 UTC, convection -- associated with several mesoscale convective vorticity maxima /MCVs/ (apparent in radar imagery) -- persists south of I-70. With an atypically moist low-level airmass, weak /near moist-adiabatic/ mid-level lapse rates, and little in the way of convective inhibition.. ongoing activity may persist through mid-late morning.. gradually waning/dissipating by late morning to early afternoon as it progresses into an increasingly unfavorable airmass to the east. Morning convection, convective remnants, and lingering cloud cover will delay/impede diurnal destabilization this afternoon (similar to yesterday).. albeit mainly in eastern portions of the area. Further upstream in eastern CO (where convective remnants/cloud cover will exit earlier in the day).. a marginally unstable/uncapped airmass (~1000 J/kg mlcape) may foster isolated development late this afternoon. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via recent runs of the HRRR/NAM NEST suggest that the majority of activity this aft/eve will largely (perhaps entirely) be relegated south and west of the GLD CWA, though.. given the recent [poor] performance of said guidance.. and little change in the overall pattern (i.e. an environment where mesoscale/convective features predominate).. confidence is obviously quite low. Convective hazards will, in all likelihood, be relegated to locally heavy rainfall. Sat-Sat night: The mid-latitude westerlies will noticeably weaken over the Tri-State area in this period.. as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West/Rockies. Height rises assoc/w the amplifying ridge should tend to suppress convective development over the region.. and weak mid-level steering flow should tend to keep diurnal development in the Rockies (if any) confined near/adjacent to the CO Front Range. With the above in mind.. expect warmer temperatures than previous days. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 213 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 The long term period continues to look warm and relatively dry. The weather could be a bit unsettled towards the end of the week with higher chances for storms. The upper pattern is continued to be forecasted to have an upper ridge axis move from the Western CONUS to the Eastern CONUS during the week. This will have the Tri-State area under the ridge's influence with generally warmer and drier temperatures, especially near the beginning of the week when the axis may be near or over the area. High temperatures are forecasted to be in the 90's and 100's for much of the week. There is still some uncertainty towards the end of the week as it isn't clear how far east the ridge axis will go and if any troughs will try to move in from the upstream direction. Current ensemble guidance is favoring the ridge over the area with the trough staying further northwest for now. However, monsoonal moisture and potentially a few disturbances may move through the upper southwest flow and bring chances for storms to end the work week. Temperatures would still reach the 90's but cloud cover would help limit the chances for 100's. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 445 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 A period of sub-VFR conditions associated with low ceilings may affect either terminal this morning.. with the relative greatest chance at the GLD terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out late this aft/eve.. mainly at the GLD terminal. Light winds will prevail through the TAF period at both terminals.. initially ESE-SE, then veering toward the S-SSE this aft/eve. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && UPDATE...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...VINCENT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 950 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301600- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 950 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 /1050 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... Showers and scattered thunderstorms will persist across portions of the area this morning. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected in association with any thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening, mainly in eastern Colorado and adjacent Kansas border counties. Severe weather is not anticipated. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report heavy rainfall to the National Weather Service in Goodland via telephone or social media.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 823 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 KSZ001-NEZ079-291600- Cheyenne-Dundy- Including the cities of St. Francis, Bird City, and Benkelman 823 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 /923 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022/ Areas in Dundy county Nebraska, and Cheyenne county Kansas will see areas of dense fog along with locally heavy rainfall through 1100 AM CDT. Visibility could be reduced to a mile or less at times, and could impact area travel. Rainfall could produce ponding on area roadways during this time. Please use caution if out traveling during this time. JN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1008 AM FLOOD SAINT FRANCIS 39.77N 101.80W
07/29/2022 CHEYENNE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
LAW ENFORCEMENT IS REPORTING MINOR STREET
FLOODING IN ST FRANCIS WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
JNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Six to 12 inches of water was reported over the roadway approximately a half mile north of the Hwy 385/36 intersection. The culvert underneath the highway was not able to handle all the runoff from the rainfall. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1044215.