A wildfire began from unknown causes 8 miles south-southeast of Elk Springs.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A wildfire began from unknown causes 8 miles south-southeast of Elk Springs.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 2:28 PM MST, 2 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 328 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 328 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Some light showers are popping over all the ridges, a bit better coverage than earlier anticipated. This could be due to the weak shortwave that is moving across Nebraska and extending west into the Front Range, sparking a bit more convection with the heating of the day and instability in place. The atmosphere is still plenty dry as indicated by the 12Z GJT sounding with a precipitable water (PWAT) value of 0.51 inches. Strong inverted V as well with DCAPE of 1531 J/kg, so any storms that do form are expected to produce more gusty outflow winds than rain. The best storm activity seems to be over the southern San Juans as expected with storms drifting southward off the high terrain. Better moisture remains across the Four Corners and southern valleys with PWAT near or slightly above 0.75 inches, while the rest of the CWA from the tops of the San Juans and Abajos and northward have PWAT of less than 0.5 inches. Any showers forming over the northern and central ridges are very short-lived and collapsing almost as soon as they form and drift off the terrain. The NAMNest and NSSLWRF model seem to be pinpointing this convection better than most models. Regardless, temperatures are continuing to climb with highs reaching about 10 degrees above normal, with high pressure ridge building out west. Mostly sunny skies are really being seen across most lower valleys with exception of the foothills of the southwest Colorado valleys where storms are drifting off the southern San Juans. Expect a quick downturn to convection once sunset rolls around underneath the high pressure and clearing skies with excellent radiational cooling overnight. The high pressure ridge is expected to expand a bit east and north as this shortwave exits, leaving much of the west very dry with a dry northerly flow over our CWA. Not expecting as much convection as today, but that's not saying too much. However, should be isolated coverage at best across mainly the southern San Juans with gusty winds the likely benefactor. The heat gets cranking with 90s expected in most lower valleys and triple digit heat in the lower desert valleys of east-central and southeast Utah as well as western portions of the Grand Valley. This hot and dry trend looks to last through the upcoming holiday weekend. More on this in the Long Term section below. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Labor Day weekend, long recognized as the close of summer, will feel more like deep summer this weekend with a building ridge of high pressure camped out over the Great Basin. Isoheights are depicted in the deterministic models to continue increasing from Friday into Sunday. Numerical guidance continues to push 3 digit temperatures this weekend across the Grand Valley and Red Rock country of eastern Utah. Grand Junction Airport holds two 100 degree record highs in September: 1st and 4th. Surpassing one of the other upper 90's records should be fairly easy with the pattern this weekend. Precipitation concerns under this regime will be confined to terrain driven activity, mostly across the San Juans. Weak steering flow should keep storms attached to the higher terrain and low moisture values will keep rainfall rates in check, should a few isolated storms develop. A weak perturbation shows up in models on Saturday afternoon and will drive some more widespread convection across the southern mountains. Model resolution makes this a wait and see event, but a few storms have managed to break through today in the San Juans, so I wouldn't rule this out continuing into the long term forecast. Persistence will rule the weekend forecast. However, moving into Labor Day and the work week beyond, models begin to diverge and forecast confidence wanes. An approaching series of waves in the northeast Pacific is being advertised to come ashore along the British Columbia coast beginning Sunday morning. Models depict these waves eroding isoheights and breaking down the ridge camped out over the western U.S. With such an anomalously strong ridge, I hesitate to bite on its timely exit, especially considering the northward track of these Pacific waves. Reasonable expectations are there for temperatures to remain above normal to start September. With a lengthy duration of low relative humidities and warm temperatures, critical fire weather conditions will possibly return to a few zones next week, provided we can increase gradients enough to get some gusty winds. For now, anomalous high pressure and broken temperature records will be the topic around the weather water cooler. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through period under high pressure. Scattered mid clouds will move through this afternoon and clear skies will return this evening. Terrain influenced winds will generate some light gusts this afternoon, with light winds returning in the evening. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...LTB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 240 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011200- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 240 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A weak disturbance will just clip southern portions of the forecast this afternoon and increase chances for some convection to form. This wave will be responsible for an isolated shower or storm over the San Juans and along the spine of the Continental Divide. The biggest concern will be some gusty outflow winds under any convection that forms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday A few showers and storms will be possible each afternoon and evening over the San Juans and Continental Divide. Coverage remains very low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
421 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022
COZ022-312245-
Animas River Basin CO-
421 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern La
Plata County through 445 PM MDT...
At 421 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles northwest of Cedar Hill, or 18 miles northwest of Aztec, moving
south at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern La
Plata County, including the following locations... Kline, Marvel and
Redmesa.
This includes Colorado 140 between mile markers 1 and 13.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3717 10826 3717 10807 3700 10800 3700 10831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 002DEG 21KT 3705 10816
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
429 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022
COZ019-023-312300-
Southwest San Juan Mountains CO-San Juan River Basin CO-
429 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Archuleta
County through 500 PM MDT...
At 428 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Pagosa Springs, or 25 miles northwest of Dulce, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pagosa Springs.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 84 in Colorado between mile markers 18 and 24.
U.S. Highway 160 in Colorado between mile markers 128 and 140.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3728 10728 3733 10717 3717 10689 3702 10721
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 324DEG 9KT 3727 10720
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ERWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The McAndrews Fire began in late August from unknown causes, 8 miles south-southeast of Elk Springs, and grew to 220 acres before it was contained the next day.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1044166.