A mid to upper level low moved over a warm, moist airmass in South Central Texas and generated slow moving thunderstorms. Some of these storms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
A mid to upper level low moved over a warm, moist airmass in South Central Texas and generated slow moving thunderstorms. Some of these storms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 5:23 AM CST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 623 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Early this morning upper air analysis and GOES-16 water vapor imagery revealed the upper level low centered across Far West Texas and northern Chihuahua Mexico. Embedded vorticity maximum were pivoting northward around the low, up the Rio Grande where favorable lift is taking place. A deep moisture plume was evident extending from West Texas and the Big Bend into South Central Texas. Precipitable water value is currently estimated to be around 1.9 to 2.3" across the CWA, with higher values pooled along the Rio Grande and well above the CFSR 90th percentile. Radar imagery is indicating an increase in convection across the Winter Garden and Rio Grande regions early this morning, similar to where CAM guidance suggested re-development would take place. Higher PoPs through the morning hours will be located across the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country. 00Z HREF 24 hr QPF probability-matched mean indicates the potential for some pockets of 1-3" of rainfall across the region, which could occur relatively quickly. Many areas of the western CWA that experienced heavy rainfall yesterday have seen 1-hr and 3-hr flash flood guidance (FFG) drop considerably, and any additional heavy rainfall today could lead to flooding in spots. We have issued a Flood Watch for this region. While PoPs and the likelihood of heavy rainfall is less as you get east into Kerr and Bandera counties, out of an abundance of caution we have included these two counties in the watch given how low the FFG is after the rainfall yesterday. Farther east, convective coverage is expected to be isolated through the morning and widely scattered this afternoon and evening. Tonight the low opens into a broad trough axis from northwest Mexico into West Texas. Most of the better forcing overnight will reside across Mexico, Big Bend, Trans Pecos, and into Val Verde County, where the threat of locally heavy rainfall could continue. We will keep the higher PoPs overnight out across Val Verde County. The Flash Flood Watch has been run through Thursday morning, however the tonight period may likely be adjusted to just include Val Verde. On Thursday the better focus for more numerous showers and storms will be north of the region, closer to the aforementioned trough axis across Mexico and West Texas linking into a trough across North and Northeast Texas. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are forecast Thursday afternoon across South Central Texas. Outflow boundaries originating from North Central and Northeast Texas may serve as the better focus for coverage of showers and storms late Thursday afternoon and early evening across the northeast CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 An active weather pattern is expected to continue through the long term period, favoring continued chances for heavy rainfall and slightly below normal temperatures. At the beginning of the long term period, the 500 mb level pattern is expected to be characterized by strong sub-tropical ridging across the western CONUS with a Bermuda High off the southeastern US coast. In between, troughing is expected to be found across the Mississippi River Valley into the southern Plains. Through the weekend and into next week, this upper level weakness looks to break away from the mean flow and become an inverted trough that will linger across the southern Plains into the middle of next week. The persistent, relative upper level low pressure in combination with continuing anomalously high PWAT values results in daily chances for at least scattered showers and storms. Specifics as to the placement and magnitude of QPF totals through the long term are uncertain due to mesoscale interactions and the convective nature of storms. However, slow storm motions and training storms are expected at times, and in combination with wet antecedent conditions this could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding through at least the weekend. This is reflected in WPC's EROs for days 3-5, with a marginal risk across all of south central TX on Friday and Day 4 and 5 slight risks across southern and eastern portions of the CWA for this weekend. As mentioned above, temperatures (mainly the highs) are expected to be a few degrees below average each day through the long term due to the increased cloud cover and moisture. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings prevail near and west of the I-35 corridor. These ceilings will hold through the morning, then become VFR 17Z-19Z. Numerous SHRA and scattered TSRA will continue through the morning hours across western areas, closer to the Rio Grande, impacting DRT. Activity out west is expected to decrease to more isolated in coverage in the afternoon. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered SHRA and TSRA activity is possible, especially in the afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 90 75 91 74 / 40 40 50 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 75 92 74 / 40 40 50 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 75 93 74 / 40 30 40 40 Burnet Muni Airport 88 73 88 72 / 50 40 60 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 84 74 89 74 / 90 70 40 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 89 75 91 73 / 50 30 60 50 Hondo Muni Airport 89 75 92 74 / 40 30 30 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 74 93 73 / 40 30 40 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 75 93 74 / 30 30 50 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 90 75 92 75 / 40 30 40 40 Stinson Muni Airport 91 75 94 75 / 40 30 30 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bandera-Dimmit-Edwards- Kerr-Kinney-Maverick-Real-Uvalde-Val Verde-Zavala. && Short-Term...76 Long-Term...Gale Aviation...76
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-011000- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today And Tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today across portions of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country. Scattered showers and storms could continue into tonight along the Rio Grande. Quick, heavy rainfall, with isolated totals of 1-3 inches, could lead to flash flooding across this region and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect through early Thursday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Tuesday. A few spots could see heavy rain totals over two inches, leading to isolated flooding potential. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 49 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:52 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding that closed US 55 south of Camp Wood along the Nueces River. A trained spotter sent pictures of water over the road.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding that closed US 55 near Montell along the Nueces River. There were pictures of water over the road on social media.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1051034, 1051035.