Plenty of residual monsoon moisture remained over southwest Colorado which resulted in another day of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Plenty of residual monsoon moisture remained over southwest Colorado which resulted in another day of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain. A localized debris flow occurred in Archuleta County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 2, 2:25 PM MST, 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 325 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 237 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Scattered thunderstorms have developed over the high terrain this afternoon in conjunction with a passing shortwave disturbance tracking along the northern edge of high pressure centered over New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Storms are tracking mostly due east in the mean upper level flow. Surface moisture remains abundant with dewpoints in the 50's across western Colorado and eastern Utah. High pressure will build overhead on Wednesday and introduce a slight drying trend to the region, along with a temperature warmup. Abundant sunshine and an absence of afternoon storms on Wednesday will push low valleys well into the 90's. Dry air and subsidence under the high will squash convection on Wednesday across the CWA. A few storms will likely develop amongst the higher peaks of the northwest mountains, the eastern San Juans and along the divide. Once again, storms will diminish after sunset and a quiet night will settle upon the West Slope Wednesday evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 On Thursday, the high pressure center will drift over eastern Colorado as a strong low pressure system moves along the northern tier of the US and southern Canada. The southerly flow on the western periphery of the high will help replenish moisture across the area. The models are favoring the southern mountains and valleys and to some extent the central mountains. Soundings show a midlevel inversion and dry air around the 500-400 mb layer, which may inhibit the convection across northwest Colorado. Expect scattered showers and storms in the afternoon with the better coverage over the southern third of the area. Convection may develop on the higher terrain further north, but could struggle to drift over the valleys. On Friday, the high slides slightly eastward, which opens the door for the deeper moisture to advect into most of the forecast area. Models are indicating more widespread storm coverage in the afternoon into the overnight. The potential for heavy rainfall will also increase as PWAT values reach 150-200 percent of normal. For the weekend the southern extent of the low pressure system begins to flatten the ridge, but overall the plume of monsoon remains in place. For both Saturday and Sunday the models show bullish QPF amounts across the forecast area, so expect scattered to widespread storm coverage with a potential for heavy rainfall. The details are still unclear, but the pattern is favorable for an active weekend. In the wake of the high pressure, dry air in the Pacific Northwest tries to push southward early next week. It is difficult to determine if this will reach us and what implications it will have. The other important factor will be the high pressure redeveloping over the Great Basin during this time frame. This is mainly due to a closed low making landfall in the Pacific Northwest causing heights to build out ahead of the system. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1102 AM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Cumulus development has begun across ridgetops and high valleys. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will soon follow with the greatest coverage in the higher terrain north of I-70. Any shower or storm will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds. Brief ceiling and visibility reductions to MVFR are also possible. South of I-70, less shower and storm coverage is expected. Aside from when a shower or storm directly impacts a terminal, VFR conditions will be the rule. Storms will gradually diminish towards sunset with just a lingering shower or two possible early on overnight. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 415 AM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-031015- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 415 AM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Drier air working in from the south will nudge the deepest moisture north of I-70 today. This is where showers and thunderstorms will become most widespread this afternoon. Risks of heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds and small hail are all possible. Most showers and storms will diminish after sunset with perhaps a shower or two lingering into the overnight hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Showers and storms will decrease in coverage on Wednesday as the main monsoon plume becomes cut off. However, residual moisture will continue to circulate through the region, so isolated mountain showers and storms will remain possible. Monsoon moisture returns in earnest late this week into the weekend with an increasing threat of widespread showers and storms producing heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1138 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM DEBRIS FLOW 5 N REDSTONE 39.26N 107.23W
08/01/2022 PITKIN CO LAW ENFORCEMENT
MUDSLIDE ON HIGHWAY 133. BOTH LANES OF
TRAFFIC CLOSED.
&&
GJTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
409 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022
COZ019-023-022300-
Southwest San Juan Mountains CO-San Juan River Basin CO-
409 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Archuleta
County through 500 PM MDT...
At 407 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Wolf Creek Pass to Pagosa
Springs to 16 miles east of Bayfield. Movement was southeast at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar and satellite indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pagosa Springs, Chimney Rock and Lonetree.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 84 in Colorado between mile markers 11 and 27.
U.S. Highway 160 in Colorado between mile markers 116 and 152.
Colorado 151 between mile markers 27 and 33.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors,
consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3724 10748 3728 10708 3740 10683 3740 10671
3741 10671 3741 10668 3723 10668 3719 10660
3714 10659 3712 10663 3704 10715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 293DEG 13KT 3741 10672 3727 10702 3722 10730
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MDAThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused flash flooding at mile marker 130 on Colorado Highway 160, triggering a mudslide with 6 to 8 inches of water and mud running across the highway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1035771.