Damaging Winds in Minnesota, August 2, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

3 PM observations came in and heat indices increased several degrees
across southern Minnesota, now ranging from 105 to 110 in many
cases. Dew points are not mixing out, despite rising temperatures.
The compounded effect has allowed the jump in heat indices into the
warning range across most of southern Minnesota, thus the warning has
been expanded.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

KEY MESSAGES: (optional)

- Heat index values of 100-105 into this evening

- Scattered thunderstorms expected tonight, some of which may be
  severe.

TODAY/TONIGHT:
The forecast for excessive heat remains on track as wide spread heat
index values of 100-105 are already present across much of the areas
under an Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory. A few sites with
values above 110 can't be ruled out where dew points locally rise
into the upper 70s. Thunderstorm this afternoon is expected to
continue to remain limited to far northern Minnesota and Wisconsin,
as 700 mb temperatures around 14C maintain a strong cap over central
Minnesota and points south. There is a very low (~10%) chance of a
few isolated thunderstorms breaking the cap late this afternoon and
evening across western Wisconsin where the cap is weaker. A
conditional severe weather threat exists IF any storms can fire over
western Wisconsin, with very large hail and damaging wind gusts the
potential hazards. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms come
late tonight through the overnight hours, when stronger forcing aloft
arrives from the west. These overnight storms will most likely remain
elevated, meaning they will not be able to tap into the favorable
surface-based environment for severe weather. However, enough mid-
level CAPE and shear is present to possible generate a few stronger
clusters of storms, and maybe a few isolated instances of hail and
gusty winds overnight. Rainfall amounts will be very spotty owing to
the isolated to scattered nature of any storm tonight. Localized
rainfall amounts in excess of 1" are possible wherever thunderstorms
occur, but most other areas will likely see either less than 0.1" or
nothing at all.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
Northwest flow develops Wednesday behind a front which will lead to
drier dewpoints and cooler temperatures, although highs will likely
still end up in the mid to upper 80s across much of eastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin. Southerly flow returns Thursday, but
temperatures won't really peak until Friday when the thermal ridge
axis moves overhead. Highs on Thursday will mostly remain in the mid
to upper 80s, but widespread low to mid 90s look likely Friday
afternoon. If dew point values can reach the upper 60s to low 70s,
Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the area.

THIS WEEKEND:
A cold front will move through the Upper Midwest during the late
Friday to Sunday timeframe, with deterministic models and ensemble
still exhibiting quite a bit of spread regarding its timing. Showers
and thunderstorms are likely with the frontal passage, and the entire
area looks to have at least a decent chance for beneficial rainfall
amounts of half an inch or more. Daily temepratures will depend on
the timing of the front and precipitation. The NBM averaged values
show high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, but a day or two of
below-normal temperatures is possible with cloudy skies during the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

VFR this evening with mid level clouds increasing from the
northwest. TSRA are beginning to develop over SD, which should expand
in coverage later this evening heading into western MN. A gradual
weakening trend is anticipated overnight as activity reaches eastern
MN and WI. Gusty northwest winds and clear skies for Wednesday.

KMSP...Best chance for TSRA remains in the 07-10Z range.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts becoming NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Hennepin-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-
     Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Chisago-
     Douglas-Freeborn-Goodhue-Isanti-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Steele-
     Stevens-Swift.

WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...Borghoff
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
900 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
040200-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
900 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. A few storms may be
severe. The main hazards are large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Borghoff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
432 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     TORNADO          4 ESE WELLS             43.73N 93.65W
07/31/2022                   FARIBAULT          MN   STORM CHASER

            VIDEO SHOWED A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN, WITH SOME
            LARGE BRANCHES BEING TOSSED.

&&

TDK