Deep subtropical moisture lingered over the Four Corners region. This resulted in another round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Deep subtropical moisture lingered over the Four Corners region. This resulted in another round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain. A localized debris flow occurred in San Miguel County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 1:56 PM MST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 256 PM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 231 PM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Great Basin region through tonight. A weak shortwave will move across Oregon by late Thursday which will squeeze the ridge of high pressure to our west. This setup will continue the slow migration of drier air from the north in the short term period with PWAT values dropping below 100 percent of normal across the north. Residual moisture continues to be fairly abundant south of Interstate-70 today, with PWAT's approaching 150 percent of normal. A combination of lift from afternoon heating and good moisture will allow showers and storms to develop over the higher terrain and drift over valley locations across the south in weak northwest flow. The main impact with these slow-moving storms will be locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning in the strongest storms. Expect showers and storms to diminish during the evening hours tonight. Conditions will dry further on Thursday as the ridge axis shifts slightly west pushing the main monsoonal plume across Arizona, southwestern Utah, and Nevada. Mainly dry conditions can be expected with the exception of isolated and scattered late day showers and storms south of the Interstate-70 corridor. High temperatures on Thursday will be seasonably above normal across the north with temperatures near normal across the south. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 231 PM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A shortwave over the Pacific Northwest will push the ridge of High Pressure east over the Intermountain West by Friday. This ridge position will bring another round of monsoonal moisture to the region. The monsoonal surge will be aided by a disturbance moving west across New Mexico which will be entrained into the moist subtropical flow. Expect coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms to increase on Friday and Saturday. Locally heavy rain will bring a heightened focus on flash-flood prone areas including all burn scars during this period. Model confidence decreases by Sunday and Monday with ensemble members showing more divergence in the exact track and impact of the monsoonal moisture for the region. The ensemble blends are trending to push the ridge of high pressure east of the Rockies, which would bring a drying trend across the forecast area for the first half of the work week. The best chance for late-day showers and storms is expected across the south and mountain locations. Seasonably cool temperatures are expected on Friday and Saturday with a warming trend to start the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon for areas north of I-70 as drier air ushers in from the north. For areas south of I-70, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop off the high terrain by or shortly after 18Z. Some storms may drift into adjacent lower valleys to the southeast of the ridges late this afternoon into the evening. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning possible with storms with MVFR at times in heavier showers. Otherwise, VFR should prevail. Most storm activity should diminish shortly after sunset. Quiet weather follows overnight into Thursday morning with light winds. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MPM LONG TERM...MPM AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-181000- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms will form over the higher terrain mainly to the south of I-70 this afternoon and drift over valley floors by evening. Heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and frequent lightning will remain the greatest threat with these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday More of a downturn in storm activity and coverage is expected Thursday with storms confined to southeast Utah and southwest Colorado as drier air expands southward. This will be brief as a disturbance moving in from the west will help bring deeper moisture northward again Friday through the coming weekend, resulting in more widespread storm coverage. There is a potential for localized flooding, especially over steep terrain, burn scars, and saturated soils during this period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
A mudslide occurred as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms near Sawpit along Colorado Highway 145.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1039729.