An easterly wave was located just south of El Paso, Texas on August 17, 2022. Associated with this wave was an above normal amount of moisture that produced persistent shower activity across southern New Mexico.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
An easterly wave was located just south of El Paso, Texas on August 17, 2022. Associated with this wave was an above normal amount of moisture that produced persistent shower activity across southern New Mexico. This stratiform precipitation moved into southern Lincoln County during the early morning hours of August 17th. While this activity was not convective in nature and did not have very high rain rates, it did move over the McBride burn scar and several hours of even light, steady rain produced flash flooding on the burn scar near Ruidoso. Meanwhile, more typical convective activity in northwest New Mexico produced flash flooding at Chaco National Park.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 4:21 AM MST, 6 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 521 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE MVFR/IFR cigs have filled in the wake of showers and storms from last night over much of northeastern NM, stretching swd to KTCC. MVFR cigs are also developing over a few spots over southeastern NM near KROW- KSRR as well, associated with an easterly wave moving westward south of El Paso. Another round of afternoon shra and ts will favor the northern third and southern third of the state today, with the most widespread coverage expected along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A dry slot will generally keep ts chances lower through central NM from K0E0 to KABQ to KGUP. Storms will last longest over northeastern and east-central NM this evening and through the end of the TAF period. More MVFR/IFR cigs are likely through this area as well Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...227 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022... .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of a moist surface boundary will stay over northeastern New Mexico today, keeping high chances for showers and thunderstorms, many of which will be capable of producing locally heavy rain and possible flash flooding. Outside of northeastern New Mexico, increased moisture will be present, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into the evening, just not as concentrated as in northeastern areas. High temperatures will be cooler than average today due to expected clouds and storms in the area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the end of the week and into early next week, especially in western and central New Mexico with Saturday having the highest rain chances overall. Storms will often be slow- moving which will lead to an increased threat for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... Overnight convection continues over far northeastern NM this morning from Raton to Clayton. Meanwhile the easterly wave just south of El Paso continues to bring sporadic shower activity into south-central NM and parts of Socorro and Lincoln counties. With the easterly wave to the south, a 591dm 5H upper high over the northern Great Basin, and a larger troughing pattern to the east, an upper level deformation zone sets up over north-central to northeastern NM. These synoptic features will allow the abundant moisture to take full advantage of the resulting lift along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains again today. Hi-res CAMs show CI near the noon hour over the ridgeline and mesas near Raton. Heavy rainfall will result from any storm here, with storms expected to cluster into a complex over the northeastern plains late into the evening and overnight period. With potential rainfall totals of 1" to 2" from any passing storm, burn scars, and already soaked soils, a Flash Flood Watch will be laid down again for this part of the forecast area. Further west, the mid-level dry slot north and northwest of the easterly wave looks to keep convection mostly suppressed over west- central and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic and slow moving storms are possible further into northwestern NM. While confidence is lower here with regards to flash flooding, cannot rule out the potential since storms should reside over locations for a longer period of time. Meanwhile, scattered storms are also possible over the southeastern plains where an outflow boundary from yesterday's convection will eventually stall out by Wednesday afternoon. While convection over the southwestern two thirds of the state steadily tapers off Wednesday evening, strengthening northerly flow over CO will push the complex of storms over northeastern NM into the eastern plains Wednesday night. The aforementioned deformation area looks to keep this convective activity going well overnight before dying off Thursday morning. Model solutions are showing the northerly flow aloft bringing in drier dewpoints into northern NM, down into the 40s. This will act to shunt the majority of Thursday's afternoon convection to areas along and south of I-40, with lesser scattered activity forecast for the northern mountains. LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A messy upper level pattern will continue to reside over the American Rockies on Friday. Some of the more notable features will include the remains of the upper low that crossed Old Mexico, which should be in either Sonora and perhaps stretching into southeastern AZ, and another weaker trough/low over eastern UT and western CO with weak deformation persisting over parts of northern NM. Upper level winds will certainly depend on the exact placement of these features, but they will be spatially variable across NM, posing some uncertainty as to the moisture distribution across the state. The western and southern tiers of the state would appear to host the highest PWATs on Friday with very high values of 1.0 to 1.5 inch in southern counties (mostly south of the forecast area). Highest POPs will be in these western and southern tiers of the forecast area where the deepest moisture will be, and the southwestern mountains and Gila wilderness would have the closest access to the deep subtropical tap from the remnant low in Sonora/AZ. All remaining zones should at least see isolated to scattered cells Friday with the far northeastern plains observing the sparsest coverage where temperatures may gain a couple of degrees, but still stay slightly below average. The fate of the aforementioned upper level features will remain uncertain into Friday night and Saturday, as the larger scale synoptic pattern remains somewhat blocky with deeper stagnant lows over the eastern Pacific and the upper Midwest. Regardless, the consensus is for the Sonora/AZ low to be drawn northeastward in a weakened or sheared state. More importantly will be the deep subtropical moisture flux that will enter more of central and perhaps northern NM into Saturday, and while deterministic members have differences with regard to how the moisture invades, there is fairly high consensus (even among ensemble means) that high, above normal PWATs (1.0 to 1.6 inch) will overtake much of the forecast area Saturday. Widespread rain and cooler temperatures seem to be a safe bet, but the more challenging aspect of the Saturday forecast will likely hinge on the nature of the precipitation whether convective or predominantly stratiform. Even with stratiform precipitation, raindrop size distribution would largely take on tropical characteristics with such high PWATs, and heavy rainfall will be a growing concern. Deterministic models quickly grow out of phase with the placement of upper level features into early next week. Still, there is consensus that some drying would take place into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, but near to slightly above average PWATs would remain over much of the forecast area with no strong subsident features to contend with. This will keep the below average temperatures going with scattered to numerous showers and storms going each day. 24/52 && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. More flash flooding is expected over burn scars remains today, in particular the HPCC scar given numerous thunderstorm potential along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains today. Southern burn scars come under a higher threat of flash flooding Thursday and Friday thanks to an easterly wave traversing westward just south of the international border. This feature will combine with a significant plume of monsoonal moisture and move northward into the state Saturday, significantly increasing chances for widespread wetting precipitation and flash flooding potential. Well below normal temperatures are forecast given the expected increased cloud cover, and this could actually play a role in limiting more robust convection Saturday. Conditions clear out with a more normal daily routine of afternoon storms Sunday into next week. 24 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the following zones... NMZ227-228-230. Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the following zones... NMZ214-215-229. &&
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:29 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain on the McBride burn scar caused flash flooding along Gavilan Canyon Road, near Warrior Drive. Damages are estimated.
The San Juan County emergency manager reported flash flooding at Chaco National Park. High water rises were reported along the Chaco River, and one unknown roadway within the park was completely destroyed. Time of this report is estimated based on radar, and damages are also estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1039780, 1039808.