High Wind in California, June 17, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
134 PM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions will
persist through Saturday followed by cooler temperatures over the
weekend. Areas of blowing dust can be expected through Saturday as
well. Calmer conditions and a warming trend commence next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday.

Surface low continues to gradually deepen in the lee of the
Sierra this afternoon, with an elongated 998mb low center now
stretching near Tonopah to near Twin Falls, Idaho. In advance of
this feature, winds have responded and are now broadly gusting in
the 40 to 55 mph range across most of the southern Great Basin.
Strongest winds so far today have been near Tonopah where gusts
have eclipsed 58 mph, and there is some room for further
strengthening through the early evening hours. Strongest winds
across our forecast area will likely be in this general zone
encompassing the higher terrain of eastern Inyo County,
Esmeralda, central Nye, and Lincoln counties. A few gusts over 60
mph will remain possible.

Further south, winds are on the increase as well, especially
north of I-40 where wind advisories have been posted. Winds in
this region have been a little slower to respond but have begun
to gust into the 25 to 35 mph range, and will increase a bit more
through the evening hours.

In the most general sense, winds across our forecast area will be
strongest today, and may result in pockets of blowing dust and
visibility reductions, as well as localized power outages and wind
damage near the windiest spots such as Goldfield, Rachel, or
Pioche. The strong winds will also pose a significant fire danger
given the low humidity and dry fuels.

Winds will persist tomorrow but will be slightly lighter, with the
strongest winds focused across Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave
counties. Critical fire conditions will continue as well. There
will be a slight moisture intrusion into far eastern Mohave
county which will result in some added cloud cover and perhaps an
isolated thundershower across the far eastern edge of the county
and possibly the Mt Trumbull area. But intensity and coverage
should be quite limited due to fairly limited mid-level moisture
in play.

Calmer conditions return Sunday with breezes mostly focused across
eastern Mohave County. Temperatures through the coming days will
trend downward, and bottom out Sunday 10 to 15 degrees below mid-
June normals. Enjoy the brief respite from the heat as cooldown
like these become increasingly rare as we head into July.

.LONG TERM...Next week.

As we head into the work week, a calmer period of weather is
forecast. The system bringing the strong winds moves out, but a
broad trough will remain in place over the western US for a few
days. This should keep temperatures at or below normal for our area.
Afternoon breezes will be much more typical for this time of year,
with speeds around 10-20 mph. Later in the week, the upper-level
pattern becomes more zonal, allowing temperatures to warm a couple
degrees above normal. Models shows an elongated ridge building
across the south-central US later in the week, which may allow some
monsoonal moisture to creep into southeastern portions of our area
as southerly mid-level flow returns. Still a ways out, but ensemble
guidance show PWATs increasing at KIGM during this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather is expected across much of
the region today as gusty winds and low RH combine with the dry
fuels. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph will be common across much of
the Mojave Desert and Southern Great Basin this afternoon, with
slightly reduced speeds expected Saturday. Cooler temperatures
will invade over the weekend with winds dropping off on Sunday.
Calmer and warmer conditions return next week.

&&

..AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds with gusts 25-30 kts
are expected to increase this afternoon with gusts up to 35-40 kts
at times with areas of blowing dust into early this evening. Low
level moderate turbulence can be expected in the terminal area and
PIREP solicitation is recommended. Winds speeds should decrease
after 04Z this evening with gusts generally 20-25 kts continuing
into the early morning on Saturday. Confidence is lower in southwest
winds increasing again after 2 am with gusts from 30-35 knots. If it
does not happen, we do expect gusts of 30-35 kts redevelop Saturday
late morning through the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Widespread south-southwest winds gusting 30-40 knots
this afternoon and early this evening with localized gusts of 45 kts
and extensive blowing dust. Low level moderate turbulence can be
expected for all TAF sites. Winds speeds will decrease to 15-25
knots this evening and overnight followed by widespread southwest
winds gusting 25-35 knots Saturday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Salmen

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