Wildfire in Arizona, March 19 to 23, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
256 PM MST Sat Mar 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system brings gusty winds Sunday and Monday
and a chance of precipitation Sunday afternoon into Monday
morning. After a cool down on Monday, high temperatures will be
warming to well above normal levels by the end of next week.

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.DISCUSSION...Shortwave ridge quickly exiting the region as
rather robust semi closed low or shortwave trof moves into SEAZ
Sunday. Expect isolated to scattered showers, with slight chance
of T'storms. Best chance will be just ahead and along the cond
front moving through during the afternoon. Most areas should be
under 0.1" of rain with many locations only seeing trace amounts.
Snow levels drop to 6500 ft with a few snow showers Sun night
into early Mon. Any accumulations will be likely above 7500 ft and
generally 1-2". Some higher amounts possible NE of Tucson above
9000 ft.

Gusty winds will also be prevalent, especially east of Nogales
and Tucson, where a RFW has been issued. Please see fire
discussion below for more info. Some patchy blowing dust is likely
for the usual areas, especially near the AZ/NM border. We could
also see some lofted dust move in from the NW post cold frontal
passage.

Monday will be much cooler with breezy to locally windy NW winds.
It will make it feel a little chilly compared to late. However,
expect a rapid warmup by middle/end of week. Looks like we will be
easily seeing 90 degree weather for the lower deserts west of
Tucson, with decent probs of 90 degrees in Tucson.

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.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z. Expect gusty SFC winds from the
southwest and west of 12-20 kts with gusts up to 32 kts on Sunday.
Stronger winds on a line from KTUS to KOLS east to the NM/AZ
border. A cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm to the area from late morning into early
afternoon. MVFR not expected, however any heavier shower could
briefly bring MVFR conditions...less than 10% chance of occurrence.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

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.FIRE WEATHER...The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a RFW
for high fire danger, gusty winds, and low rh on Sunday. Cold
front approaches tomorrow with RFW conditions east of Tucson.
Critical fire weather likely starts around 11am and continues
until 5-7pm. Isolated to scattered showers and a 10-20% chance of
a thunderstorm is possible. Less than 20% chance of a wetting rain
in the RFW area.

Much cooler Monday, but still windy. Gusty NW winds expected across
the area, especially for eastern AZ. RH will be above 15%, but
fire weather will be elevated due to gusty winds.

Rapid warmup through the middle and end of the week, with lower
deserts approaching or eclipsing 90 degrees by the weekend.

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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ151-152-
154.

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