Strong Wind in Arizona, June 18, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
900 AM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds persist this afternoon as a system continues
to traverse the region. Winds begin to subside on Sunday, leaving us
with cooler and calmer conditions. Temperatures warm during the work
week, with some hints of moisture returning later on.
&&

.UPDATE...Interesting cloudscapes across our forecast area this
morning as we are sandwiched between a dry and stable southwesterly
flow across western zones, with a more southerly and moist midlevel
flow across our eastern zones. This has led to a layer of stratified
cloud cover in association with a southerly 500mb jet focused along
the UT/NV border, on the western edge of a more moist and unstable
flow focused into Arizona.

Despite the cloud cover, not expecting much in the way of
precipitation or convection today in our region. We can't completely
rule out an isolated shower in far eastern Mohave county this
afternoon, but the deeper moisture and better instability will be
focused more over central and eastern Arizona. Instead, we're on the
dry side of things with breezy and unusually cool conditions for mid-
June expected. The current wind and fire headlines look good and no
updates are necessary this morning.

-Outler-

&&

.SHORT TERM...This Weekend.

Don't loosen the grip on your hats just yet, as another round of
gusty winds is expected today. While not quite as strong as
yesterday, wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are forecast for most of
our Nevada and Arizona locations. Wind advisories will continue for
these areas until this evening when speeds begin to taper off.
Another area to watch for gusty winds will be the eastern slopes of
the Sierra and Owens Valley, as the base of the trough pivots
through. Hi-res guidance shows the potential for downslope wind
gusts of 40-55 mph in the late afternoon and evening, thus a wind
advisory has been hoisted for this area. Sunday looks to be a very
pleasant day for mid-June, with highs in the upper 80s and mid 90s
(that's 10-15 degrees below normal!). Afternoon breezes should be
fairly light as well, around 15-20 mph. So get out and enjoy the
cool, calmer end to the weekend if you can!

.LONG TERM...Next Week (Monday through Friday)

After this strong low pressure system shifts off to the northeast by
Monday, a much less well defined H5 pattern will be left in its
wake. Meager troughing will eventually phase out by the end of the
week with high pressure building over New Mexico and Texas. During
this time, plenty of moisture will be returning to the desert
Southwest, mostly in Arizona and western New Mexico.

Beginning as early as Wednesday, above average PWAT values are
progged to push into northwest Arizona and the CRV which will open
the door for isolated thunderstorm possibilities for the remainder
of the week and into the weekend as well. Looking at the EC/GEFS
meteograms for 12Z/18Z, there is at least a low probability signal
for monsoonal thunderstorms in parts of Mohave County for the latter
half of next week, and those chances quickly fall off for areas west
of the CRV where the moisture gradient quickly drops off. For now,
not much more detail can be given, but do agree with the 6-10 and 8-
14 day outlooks by CPC showing a slight favoring of above average
precip for Mohave and possibly the CRV through the rest of June.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Southerly winds will pick up again this morning,
leading to critical fire weather conditions for most of our Nevada
and Arizona zones. Wind speeds are forecast to be lower than
yesterday, but gusts in excess of 40 mph are still expected.
Forecasted minimum humidities have trended downwards for the higher
terrain of Mohave County, with values now expected to be in the 10-
15% range. Winds will begin to taper off tonight, but should remain
breezy through the day tomorrow in the eastern portions of Mohave
County. This may be enough to produce elevated fire weather
conditions. Continued dry conditions but lighter winds are expected
next week.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds will prevail today
through this evening with gusts of 20-25 knots this morning
increasing to 30-35 knots early this afternoon then gradually
diminishing this evening and overnight. Moderate low level
turbulence will persist through early this evening. Northwest or
north wind components around 10 knots are likely Sunday morning
after sunrise. SCT-BKN clouds around 20 kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Widespread southwest winds will continue today with
gusts 25-35 knots during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Moderate turbulence can be expected across the region. Wind speeds
will diminish this evening and become northwest or north
overnight generally 10-20 knots. Strong downslope winds are
expected in the Owens Valley late this afternoon through late this
evening with associated low level turbulence and wind shear.
North winds gusting 25-30 knots can be expected late this evening
and overnight at KBIH. SCT-BKN clouds 10-12 kft MSL across
northwest Arizona...above 20 kft MSL elsewhere. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Woods
LONG TERM...TB3
AVIATION...Adair

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