Arizona, 2022Wildfire in Arizona, June 12 to 22, 2022
June 12 to 22, 2022 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone
The Tonto Canyon Fire resulted from the combination of three fire starts near Manzanita Mountain in southwest Santa Cruz on June 12. The fire quickly grew to more than 4000 acres driven by wind gusts to 30 mph in dry fuels.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The Tonto Canyon Fire resulted from the combination of three fire starts near Manzanita Mountain in southwest Santa Cruz on June 12. The fire quickly grew to more than 4000 acres driven by wind gusts to 30 mph in dry fuels. The fire consumed 9264 acres before becoming fully contained on June 22. About 3000 acres of this total were in Mexico. Fire suppression costs tallied $1.9 million.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 2:07 AM MST, 8 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 12, 2:07 AM MST, 8 hours 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
207 AM MST Sun Jun 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Excessive heat will continue today with slightly cooler
temperatures through the first half of the week due to a weather
system passing north of the area. Isolated storms are possible again
today, then drier weather is expected through at least Wednesday.
Thereafter the chance of showers and thunderstorms increases into
next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Low level moisture moving back into the area from the
south and southwest and is fairly deep with Kitt peak showing
elevated dewpoints at just over 6,000 ft. CAM solutions suggest
isolated convection popping up around the area east of Sells then
dissipating quickly this evening. Based on that I upped POPs from the
given blend for slight chances across much of the area. Then other
than right near the SE corner of Cochise county Monday, that is
likely the last of the convection for now as developing SW flow aloft
dries out the area. Thickness values support very warm temperatures
today with 110 possible in Tucson depending on convection and
associated cloud cover.
The passing upper level system causing the SW winds aloft will also
trim temperatures back several degrees Monday and Tuesday with a
climb again into Thursday as heights rise once again. Will be pushing
110 again in Tucson Thursday, before the big change occurs.
That expected big change is due to high pressure building over the
midwest and southeast flow developing over the area which will linger
into the weekend. If this sets up as expected, this will advect Gulf
of Mexico moisture up across the region later Thursday through the
weekend which will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
primarily Friday onward. This moisture and associated cloud cover
will help to trim afternoon temperatures back closer to normal by
Saturday. Looking like an earlier start to the monsoon season this
year is coming true.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible again this afternoon and early
evening, especially near mountainous regions. FEW/SCT clouds between
10k-14k ft AGL this morning then SCT to locally BKN clouds 10-14k ft
SCT-BKN this afternoon and evening. Clouds clearing after 12/06Z.
Light SFC winds becoming W/NW sustained 10-15 kts with gusts up to
25 kts across the area during the afternoon. Higher gusts likely
vicinity any thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms again this
afternoon and early this evening with potential for local strong wind
gusts. Otherwise expect 20-foot winds generally from the W/NW at
10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible each afternoon through
Monday. The strongest winds will be across the upper Gila River
Valley where gusts could approach 35 mph briefly each afternoon with
local and brief critical fire weather conditions possible. Mostly dry
conditions expected Monday into early Thursday with lower RH levels
with gusty afternoon winds into Tuesday.
Late Thursday into the weekend it looks like we will get a
significant surge of moisture on east to southeast winds with
scattered showers and thunderstorms with wetting rains and increased
humidity levels.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for
AZZ501>506-509.
&&
Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Wildfire, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys
- When
- June 12, 10:30 AM MST to June 22, 7:00 AM MST
- Where
- Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Park/Forest Service
- Coordinates
- 31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The Tonto Canyon Fire resulted from the combination of three fire starts near Manzanita Mountain in southwest Santa Cruz on June 12. The fire quickly grew to more than 4000 acres driven by wind gusts to 30 mph in dry fuels. Ruby Rd. was closed for a time as it was being used as a fire line. The fire consumed 9264 acres before becoming fully contained on June 22. About 3000 acres of this total were in Mexico. Fire suppression costs tallied $1.9 million.
- Wildfire
- A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Excessive Heat and Heat in Mississippi, June 12 to 18, 20221 death · 38 events
- Flooding in Wyoming, June 12 to 15, 2022$25 million · 5 events
- Tornadoes and Hail in South Dakota, June 12 to 13, 2022EF2 · 32 events
- Flooding and Heavy Rain in Idaho, June 12 to 13, 2022$1.8 million · 13 events
- Tornado and Hail in Wyoming, June 12, 2022EF2 · 4 events
- Excessive Heat in Oklahoma, June 12, 20229 injured · 25 events
- Flash Flood and Flooding in Montana, June 12 to 26, 2022$500,000 · 5 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 12, 2022$265,000 · 1.75 in hail · 6 events
- Damaging Winds in Virginia, June 12, 2022$54,000 · 50 kt wind · 15 events
- Excessive Heat and Heat in Tennessee, June 12 to 17, 202247 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Illinois, June 12, 2022$71,000 · 2 in hail · 6 events
- Tornadoes and Hail in Minnesota, June 12, 2022EF1 · 15 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1039309.