High Wind in Arizona, February 22, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST Tue Feb 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Windy and cold weather expected Tuesday, with rain and
snow showers beginning along the high terrain. A significant
snowstorm will spread from west to east Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with the potential for accumulating snow down to 4000
feet, along with widespread and hazardous travel conditions. Drier
weather arrives for Thursday, with a warming trend heading into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Morning satellite shows a deepening cold upper low
across the northwest. Strong westerly gradients have kept a narrow
band of strong west to southwest winds going overnight just along
and north of the Mogollon Rim. Gusts 35-40 mph have been frequent
with a few gusts up to 45-55 mph observed in some of the windiest
locations. Expect these strong winds to persist through Tuesday
evening. A Wind Advisory will remain in effect for the northern
portion of the Mogollon Rim into the Little Colorado River Valley
through Tuesday evening. Patchy blowing dust will be possible
early Tuesday afternoon before the main precipitation arrives.

The cold upper low will continue to sag south and west through
the day Tuesday picking up marine layer moisture as it advances
into California. At first, shallow moisture profiles will lead to
upslope variety snow showers ahead of this system along the high
terrain as a few weak disturbances rotate through the longwave
pattern. Amounts will be limited to around 1-2 inches along the
western Mogollon Rim and Kaibab Plateau by the initially shallow
moisture profile and strong southwest winds. Nonetheless, travel
may become slick at times along the I-40 and I-17 corridors near
Flagstaff Tuesday afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will hover around
freezing across the high terrain. Factoring in the showery
precipitation, gusty winds, and cold temperatures, it looks to be
an unpleasant day.

The main bulk of the precipitation still looks to begin Tuesday
evening as the upper low and surface cold front approach the area.
Expect moisture profiles to improve through the evening with
deeper saturation to the mid levels of the atmosphere likely by
early Wednesday morning. Shower coverage will increase west to
east overnight with accumulating snow expected essentially areawide.
Snow levels will drop to around 4000 ft early Wednesday. The
heaviest snow will be for those areas along the Mogollon Rim,
Kaibab Plateau, Black Mesa, Chuska Mountains, and White Mountains
that we have included in a Winter Storm Warning beginning 5 PM MST
Tuesday and continuing through 6 PM Wednesday. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches above 5000 ft and totals 8-16
inches possible above 6500ft are expected. As the cold frontal
passage occurs mid morning Wednesday, a band of heavy snow with
low visibility and quickly deteriorating conditions will be
possible along the I-40 and I-17 corridors. Periods of patchy
blowing snow will be possible as well across portions of the high.
If you can delay travel during the worst of the storm, that is
highly encouraged.

Winter Weather Advisories will be in effect for much of the areas
above 5000 ft not included in the Winter Storm Warning. This
includes the Coconino Plateau, Yavapai County Mountains including
the cities of Prescott and Prescott Valley, Sedona, Seligman, and
Valle. Also included in a Winter Weather Advisory with the morning
forecast will be the Chinle Valley and the Little Colorado River
Valley. These areas will see snowfall accumulation of 2-8 inches
with locally higher totals possible above 7000-7500 ft.

Bottom Line: With this being our first widespread accumulating
snow event, it is likely that travel will be impacted areawide
beginning Tuesday evening and continuing through early Thursday
morning. At times, travel will become difficult to impossible,
especially in those areas included in the Winter Storm Warning.

If you cannot delay travel, expect dangerous winter weather
driving conditions. Plan on delays and be sure to prepare for your
travel by including food, water, warm clothes, medications,
plenty of gas, phone chargers and any other essential items in
your car.

Conditions will slowly improve late Wednesday evening into early
Thursday morning as the system exits the area. Showers will linger
across the eastern Mogollon Rim/White Mountain region into
Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, expect showers to end
areawide. In the wake of the snow, temperatures will remain below
normal through the weekend. Winds will remain breezy as a few dry
shortwaves pass by the area. Overnight lows will be in the single
digits to teens with snowpack on the ground and clearing skies.
Temperatures will begin to moderate a bit into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Strong gusty southwest winds will
continue with peak gusts of 35 to 45 kts. Showers will increase in
coverage today along and west of a KPGA-KFLG-KPAN line becoming
widespread across all of northern Arizona by Wednesday morning.
Expect ceilings to lower through the day with local MVFR/IFR
conditions today becoming areas of MVFR/IFR conditions tonight along
and northeast of KGCN-KPRC-KSOW line. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect gusty southwest winds to continue today with
increasing rain and snow chances, becoming likely tonight into
Wednesday. Expect snowfall accumulations in excess of a foot over
the higher terrain, especially along the Mogollon Rim. Turning
colder.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly clear, dry and cold Thursday with
a slight chance of showers in the White Mountains. Lighter winds out
of the northwest to north as the weekend approaches with dry and
a bit warmer weather for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR AZZ012>017.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MST
Wednesday FOR AZZ004-011-015>018-039.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MST
Wednesday FOR AZZ006>008-010-012>014-038-040.

&&

PUBLIC...ET
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff