A decaying MCV remains over the eastern Mogollon Rim in the morning brought an area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms remain. Otherwise, clearing skies allowed for increasing instability through the afternoon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A decaying MCV remains over the eastern Mogollon Rim in the morning brought an area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms remain. Otherwise, clearing skies allowed for increasing instability through the afternoon. This allowed strong thunderstorms to form that produced heavy rain and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 1:52 AM MST, 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 152 AM MST Sun Aug 14 2022 .SYNOPSIS...The active monsoon pattern will continue across the Arizona High Country over the next 5 to 7 days. The main hazards associated with activity will be heavy rain and flash flooding. As a reminder, be sure to avoid flood prone areas. If you come across flooded roadways...make the smart choice and turn around, don't drown. && .DISCUSSION...Saturday afternoon convection continues to dwindle as of 1 AM. An outflow boundary continues to race toward the northwest from decaying showers/storms along the Valley Floor and there's around a 15-20% chance that a few showers erupt along the leading edge through sunrise this morning. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies. For areas that clear...some patchy fog will become a possibility, with a greater probability of fog if these cloud-free areas received rainfall recently. Widespread mid/upper level cloudiness is on tap for today which should translate to a slow increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The latest NWP suggests that a MCV from the aforementioned convection farther south may drift toward the northwest through the day today. This may instigate a moist upslope flow from areas across the AZ Strip...down to the Mogollon Rim and into the White Mountains. 00 UTC HREF Probability of Exceeding (POE) 1" of rainfall ranges between 50 and 70% along these areas. Given that PWATs will climb to or just over 1" (nearly 100% probabilities) and the subsequent efficient warm-rain processes likely to ensure in mature convection, we'll go ahead and issue a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for portions of the High Country today and into the early portion of tonight. Note, not all areas in the watch will experience heavy rain/flash flooding as the coverage of storms won't be 100%. While the consensus of hi-res NWP doesn't support widespread heavy rain after about midnight Monday morning, random nocturnal outflow collisions will mean that convection could persist into the pre- dawn hours on Monday morning. Several HREF members along with some of the coarser deterministic NWP supports at least a 40-50 PoP during this time period. As one can expect, Monday's rain/storm chances are somewhat predicated on the coverage of this afternoon's activity. For now, PoPs will mirror the multi-model consensus which places 70-80% rain/storm chances across the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim. The tail-end of the HREF, however, suggests that we may be able to shift the greatest PoPs to areas near/west of the I-17 and US HWY 180 corridors (basically Yavapai and western Coconino). It's quite possible that we'll need another Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for these areas, as some of the HREF POE 3" across parts of Yavapai and Coconino counties is actually around 40%. For the extended forecast, there's not a ton in ensemble guidance that suggests much of a break from daily shower and thunderstorm chances. As such, NBM PoPs appear reasonable. Wednesday may offer slightly lower rain chances (only around 40-60% chances), but rain chances ramp back up as additional low level moisture surged northward from Mexico. Flash Flooding will remain the primary hazard given antecedent conditions and favorable precipitable water (indicative of warm rain processes). && AVIATION...For the 12Z TAF package...ISO SHRA and TSRA early this morning with coverage increasing by 19Z, becoming widespread through the afternoon into the early evening. Peak activity will be along a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN-KJTC line. Heavy rain will cause periods of MVFR/IFR with gusty winds near storms. Expect VFR conditions and light surface winds away from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && FIRE WEATHER...Widespread showers and storms today and Monday with peak activity each afternoon. Light winds will be interrupted by gusty, erratic winds near storms. Localized flash flooding remains a threat. Tuesday through Thursday...Minimal change through the week. Monsoon moisture will remain in place with showers and thunderstorm each day. && && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...Bain AVIATION...JM FIRE WEATHER...JM For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 67 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:48 UTC.
9 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The stream gauge on Tonto Creek above Gun Creek showed almost a one foot rise in 30 minutes.
A spotter reported major flooding around Kirkland due to very heavy rain. That wash flows south then west toward Bagdad.
Flooding was reported on Highway 191 near Wide Ruin.
Heavy rain across the Rafael Fire (June 2021) caused a flash flood that entered the Verde River. The river gauge showed a 2.5 foot (600 CFS) increase in flow. The Verde River is a main stem river so flooding was not an issue once the flow reached that river.
Heavy rain (2.40 inches in a short time) caused flooding in Model Creek and water was flowing over the Peeples Valley Road near the Model Creek School.
The Antelope Creek river gauge at Wickenburg Ranch started rising at 430 PM (around 349 CFS) and peaked at 1359 CFS at 455 PM MST.
Pictures on Social Media showed that the road from Polacca to Low Mountain was washed out and impassable. The wash likely flooded to Tolani Lake.
Several videos of major flooding north of Chinle were posted on social media.
The stream gauge on Havasu Creek near the Colorado River showed a 5 foot rise (to 1500 CFS) in less than 15 minutes. This flooding was downstream from The Supai Village.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1054901, 1054964, 1055016, 1055008, 1055015, 1054915, 1055013, 1054999, 1055005.