High Wind in Arizona, April 6, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
137 AM PDT Wed Apr 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty northerly winds will affect much of the region
today. The strongest gusts will be in the Colorado River Valley,
bringing dangerous conditions for boating and for fire spread.
Temperatures will be cooler today, but warming will return tomorrow
and Friday. Winds will begin to increase over the weekend, and a
cold low pressure system will then bring a rapid swing to much
cooler temperatures and unsettled weather early next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through tonight. Early morning satellite loop showed
clear skies areawide. Surface obs showed breezy northerly winds and
temperatures well above normal for early April. Winds have been
overperforming overnight, and will continue to be the problem today.
Still expecting the strongest winds in the Colorado River Valley,
and perhaps even stronger than previously expected, as models now
suggest gusts to around 45 mph in the Laughlin/Bullhead City area.
Lake Wind Advisory still looks good, although different high
resolution models show different starting times for the stronger
winds. Will continue to monitor through the early morning, and will
start the advisory early if stronger winds materialize sooner than
expected.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday.

Temperatures warm and winds weaken in the latter half of the work
week as an upper-level ridge builds overhead. Highs during this time
will be around 10 degrees above normal. By Saturday, a longwave
trough begins to dig across the western US, eroding the ridge. The
westerly flow ahead of the trough will enhance the surface winds
across the area. Despite the height falls on Saturday, breezy
southwest winds and subsequent mixing should allow highs to rise a
few more degrees.

Early next week, the trough finally reaches the CWA, bringing a 20-
30 degree temperature drop and potentially impactful winds. Winds
will likely be maximized on Sunday and Monday across San Bernardino,
Clark, and Mohave Counties. Will also have to watch for potential
downslope winds in the Owens Valley. Strong winds may continue into
Tuesday. During this time, temps are forecast to continue dropping.
By Tuesday, highs may be in the upper 50's and 60's across the area,
about 10-15 degrees below normal. Precip chances with this system
are currently low, with the highest probabilities in Lincoln,
Mohave, and western Inyo Counties. While precip amounts are expected
to be light, snow levels will have to be monitored given the
abnormally cold air forecast to be in place. There remains some
uncertainty with the timing and strength of this system, which will
largely influence the degree of impacts. Confidence in gusty winds
and below-normal temps is fairly high, but their exact magnitude and
the extent of precip chances remain less certain. Regardless, a
period of active and cooler weather is anticipated at the start of
next week.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Regional fire dispatch offices confirm that fuels
are dried and ready to burn in the lower elevations. Strong
northerly winds and very low humidity are expected in the Colorado
River Valley today behind a cold front, and the Red Flag Warning for
that area remains in effect. Winds should settle down quickly this
evening around sunset as deeper mixing is lost.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northeasterly winds gusting 20 to 25
knots can be expected through the day, tapering off and shifting to
southwesterly after sunset. Winds will likely shift back to
northeasterly during the day Thursday, but will be weaker than
today, with speeds around 10 knots expected. No operationally
significant clouds or weather expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy north to northeast winds can be expected over
the region today. The strongest winds, with gusts up to 40 knots,
will be in the Colorado River Valley. Winds will settle down
tonight, although gusts may still approach 30 knots in the Colorado
River Valley. For Thursday, northerly gusts of 25 to 30 knots are
expected in the Colorado River Valley, with lighter winds elsewhere.
No operationally significant clouds or weather expected.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...Morgan
LONG TERM...Woods

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