High Wind in Arizona, April 22, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
248 AM MST Fri Apr 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Strong, gusty winds arrive today with locally
elevated fire danger over the eastern zones. A chance for some light
precipitation  Increasing with a chance for some light rain and snow
showers mainly along and north of the I-40 corridor with snow levels
above 6500 feet. Increasing moisture and colder air will arrive
today and remain through Saturday before warming starts to take
place Sunday into the new week. Winds will lighten up through the
weekend, with afternoon breezes expected through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong upper trough with an associated surface front
will cross the region today, bringing strong, gusty southwest winds
and a slight chance for some light rain or snow across northern
areas.

The trough starts to push into the region this morning with a
tightening pressure gradient, causing winds to increase through this
morning and continuing into the afternoon. The trough will push to
the east and out of Arizona this evening. The upper jet will track
through the region this afternoon and evening, with the strongest
winds expected to be over eastern areas. Model guidance is
consistent with showing wind gusts between 55-65 mph over the White
Mountains and Chuska Mountains, including nearby areas. This
increased confidence has led to a High Wind Warning in areas where
we previously had a High Wind Watch. The Wind Advisory remains
unchanged.

Winds really start to ramp up early this morning with winds along
the Mogollon Rim likely to get going earlier than other parts of the
region. Southwest winds will increase to around 20 to 30 mph with
gusts to 40 to 50 mph by mid to late morning, continuing to gust
through the afternoon with gusts between 50 to 60 mph, especially
over eastern areas.

The winds will really dry out eastern areas where the moisture
remains limited and we continue to see some enhanced fire risk
through the Little Colorado River Valley in the area of St.
Johns. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect with no changes.

Winds should start to drop off some tonight, eventually becoming
fairly light through much of the region by Saturday morning. Winds
will start to turn more to the west and then north overnight,
eventually becoming more northwesterly on Saturday.

As the trough moves east, we will also see moisture increase,
especially across western areas through the Mogollon Rim region.
This increase in moisture will help to lessen the fire danger in
those areas. We will see skies start to cloud up through the morning
and as the surface front moves into the region, lift combined with
the incoming cold air will help in the development of some showers.
Best lift looks to be towards the Kaibab Plateau through the
afternoon into the early evening so keep the higher PoPs in those
areas with a chance for rain/snow showers and possibly a rumble of
thunder or two. With not a lot of moisture as the front crosses the
region, we don't anticipate much in the way of liquid precipitation
reaching the surface. QPF values remain in the 0.01-0.10" range with
the highest amounts towards the Kaibab Plateau. Snow levels still
look to be above 6500' and little to no accumulation is expected.

Cold air behind the front will drop temperatures across the region.
Friday highs will be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than it was on
Thursday. Warming will be gradual on Saturday as the trough pulls
further to the east and away from the area. Daytime highs on
Saturday will be around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Friday, with
continued warming on Sunday and into the new week.

As we head into the new week, we should have fairly light winds at
night and daily afternoon southerly breezes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION....For the 12Z TAF package...Expect VFR conditions through
18Z Friday. After 18Z, mainly VFR, with increasing cloud cover. SCT
MVFR due to -SHRA/-SHSN/ISOLD -TSRA, mainly north of a KGCN-KRQE
line. Surface winds SW10-20g25-30kts overnight, higher gusts AFT 07Z-
09Z, especially SW of higher terrain. Sfc winds increasing to SW20-
35g40-55kts during the day Friday, especially east of KFLG. Winds
decreasing dramatically AFT 02Z-04Z Saturday. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Southwest winds will be gusty Friday morning
northeast of higher terrain features. Southwest winds increase
further after sunrise Friday, especially over the eastern zones. A
Red Flag Warning remains for southern Apache county (north of the
White Mountains). Cooler temperatures and rising relative humidity
values can be expected for the rest of the zones. A chance of light
rain and snow showers, even a thunderstorm, is possible mainly near
the Utah border. Dry conditions, lighter westerly winds and a bit
warmer temperatures are expected Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Slightly warmer with generally light east
through northeasterly winds Sunday and Monday. Very warm and dry for
Tuesday, with a return to seasonally normal southwest winds.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this
evening FOR AZZ015-018.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening FOR AZZ011-013-014-016-017-040.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ009-010-012-039.

Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ114.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ004>006.

&&

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...ET

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff