An intensifying extratropical low crossed the western Aleutians to enter the Bering Sea on the evening of October 27th. It tracked eastward across the southern Bering Sea, reaching the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula near peak intensity on the evening of October 28th.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
An intensifying extratropical low crossed the western Aleutians to enter the Bering Sea on the evening of October 27th. It tracked eastward across the southern Bering Sea, reaching the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula near peak intensity on the evening of October 28th. The low brought high winds to communities in the central and eastern Aleutians as it passed just north of the islands on October 28th. Thereafter, the low continued to draw strong winds through gaps in the Alaska Peninsula as it exited to the Gulf of Alaska, where it weakened slowly over the course of the next several days.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 28, 4:31 AM AKST, 4 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper-level trough continues to be anchored by a vertically
stacked low pressure spinning nearly stationary in the central
Gulf of Alaska. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave in
association with this upper low rotating northwestward towards the
Copper River Delta and eastern Prince William Sound. Middleton
Island Radar indicates scattered snow showers near Cordova and
across Prince William Sound. Overnight, a robust shortwave passing
over the Copper River Delta resulted in a persistent band of
snowfall from there to eastern Prince William Sound. Cordova
reported 10 inches of snow on the ground over night/early this
morning. This more widespread activity has since tapered off with
left-over snow showers on the backside of the low as it continues
to drift slowly across the Gulf. A closer look at the surface
reveals a continued tight pressure gradient along the Gulf and
eastern Kenai Peninsula coasts. Whittier, Seward, and the Valdez
Narrows are reporting northerly gusts from 25 to 35 kts while
Kodiak has westerly gusts close to 30 kts.
Further to the west, a shortwave transient upper ridge continues
moving eastward from the Kuskokwim Valley/Yukon Delta towards the
interior of the state while upper zonal flow from northwest to
southeast and cloudy conditions near the southwestern coast of the
state. Areas from the lower Kuskokwim Valley (Bethel) exhibit
cloudy conditions with southeasterly flow due to a mesoscale
surface high pressure present in the upper Bristol Bay zone.
Interior locations of the Kuskokwim Valley (Sparrevohn) close to
the slopes of the Alaska Range experience off and on snow showers
with cloudy conditions. Portions of Bristol Bay (Dillingham/King
Salmon) exhibit clear and calm conditions, while Iliamna contends
with gusty northwest winds around 20 kts.
Attention now moves to the Bering Sea where the next impactful
system on the domain's sensible weather is taking shape. A broad
upper-level low is currently situated in the vicinity of the
Bering Strait. A trough stretches and digs southeastward from this
low and is energizing an already robust shortwave out ahead of
the trough while it continues to move through the central Bering
Sea. Water Vapor imagery shows a nice dry slot in the central
Bering with warmer temperatures apparent as the cyclone continues
to deepen. At the surface, the center of circulation of the
developing storm is located in the central Bering Sea moving
quickly to the east-southeast at an estimated pressure of around
975mb. Its front is quickly moving off to the east through the
central Aleutians towards the eastern Aleutians where Adak has
gusty conditions with 40 kt westerly gusts. Atka has been
reporting rain with with mostly 10 to 20 kt westerly winds while
Shemya's conditions on the backside of the system have slackened.
They currently report westerly winds to around 20 kts.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The latest 00z suite of guidance remains in good agreement with
the overall synoptic pattern with the placement and intensity of
synoptic features in the short-term. since last evening, the 00z
ECMWF has tightened up with the other models in regards to the
track of the to be hurricane-force Bering Sea system. The models
have honed in on the corridor of strongest winds being generally
from Adak to Dutch Harbor. All guidance agrees on a track from the
west-central Bering, across the southern Alaska Peninsula, and
into the North Pacific south of Kodiak Island by Friday night.
Guidance also agrees on keeping the majority of the precipitation
associated with the system south of King Salmon on the central and
southern Alaska Peninsula.
As the system moves eastward through the southern to central Gulf
of Alaska, consensus is there to keep the majority of the
precipitation away from Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula due to the more southeastern track, although chances
are still likely there. Guidance favors Kodiak Island getting the
most precipitation from the system due to their close proximity to
the storm track. Overall forecast confidence is above average for
the short-term through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist with northerly
winds generally 10 kts or less throughout the day today. There
could be some enhancement of the northerly winds with readings
above 10 kts this evening through the overnight as the pressure
gradient tightens between higher pressure in the interior and the
strong low pressure system poised to move into the southern Gulf
of Alaska overnight tonight into Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Friday
through Sunday)...
The surface low that was south of Kayak Island has weakened this
morning as it moves westward. There aer a few remaining snow
showers in the Prince William Sound region from this low, but
they are expected to completely taper off by afternoon today. This
low is also helping to push some more clouds inland into
Southcentral but there should be more widespread breaks in the
clouds by the afternoon as transient high pressure moves into
Southcentral ahead of the next low. This low is taking a slightly
more southerly course as it tracks through the Gulf of Alaska
tonight through Sunday. The biggest impact from this low will be
with the front that proceeds it as it moves over Kodiak Island
tonight and then toward the north Gulf coast. As the front
approaches Kodiak, the precipitation will likely start out as snow
during the evening. There may be a short period of blowing snow
as the winds pick up sharply from the east. These easterly winds
are ushering in warmer temperatures and will change the snow to
rain probably by midnight in Kodiak City and continue to increase.
There is the potential for some periods of heavy rain in this
system late tonight through Saturday morning. As the low
progresses eastward, the precipitation will taper off and winds
will turn back to become gusty front he northwest, though not as
strong as they have been the past day or so. There is a chance for
some snow showers after the winds shift northwest and before the
low gets too far away. As for the north Gulf coast, there will be
some winds at or near storm force in the marine areas. If
anything, the winds may be slightly less than expected yesterday
due to the more southerly low track mitigating some of the barrier
jet as the front will not be as compressed along the coastal
mountains. The front being farther offshore will also keep most of
the precipitation over water. Even with that, the eastern Kenai
Peninsula will likely see some snow tonight into Saturday morning.
By late Saturday, the pattern will return to a cold and dry one
with gusty northwesterly winds through channeled terrain, with the
strongest winds in the vicinity of Kodiak Island.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Southwest Alaska will be pretty dry over the next few days as the
system moving across the Bering Sea stays well enough south to
avoid much impact precipitation-wise to the Mainland. There will,
however, be some gusty northeasterly winds Friday evening into
Saturday morning. Strong winds will filter across the Kuskokwim
Delta and through Kuskokwim Bay as well as through Kamishak Gap
and out of Bristol Bay.
A cold airmass will hold in place over Southwest Alaska.
Anticipate temperatures remaining relatively steady over the next
couple of days, ranging from the high teens (lower Kuskokwim
Valley) into the mid-to-upper 20's (inland Bristol Bay and
Kuskokwim Delta) and low 30's (along the immediate coast).
Overnight temperatures will remain chilly ranging from single
digits (lower Kuskokwim Valley) into the teens (elsewhere).
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Forecast is on track with a deepening low pressure system tracking
north of the Aleutians Chain through Friday night. Storm force
winds and widespread gales will encompass much of the Bering Sea,
with an area of hurricane force winds near the Central/Eastern
Aleutians. There will be periods of heavy precipitation along the
front, which will be mostly rain along the Aleutian Chain. A
rain/snow mix is expected for the Pribilofs and mostly snow is
expected along the Alaska Peninsula for areas north of Port
Heiden.
The High Wind Watch for the Eastern Aleutians was upgraded to a
High Wind Warning yesterday and remains on track, as does the
High Wind Warning that was issued for the Central Aleutians
yesterday. Wind gusts 80 to 90 mph are possible across the
Central/Eastern Aleutians and surrounding waters on Friday.
Highest winds across the Central Aleutians are expected Friday
morning through Friday afternoon, and Friday afternoon through
late Friday night across the Eastern Aleutians. The system moves
over the Alaska Peninsula and towards the southern Gulf of Alaska
overnight Friday. Winds will quickly come down below warning
criteria Friday night as the low moves out.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...
The long term forecast, starting on Monday, comes with many
uncertainties. Deterministic models are all over the place with
the evolution and interaction of two upper lows, one over the
Bering, and the second to the south of the Western Aleutians over
the North Pacific. How and when they eventually phase will pose
significantly different forecast scenarios. So, instead, let's
begin with where we see areas of greater confidence. All models,
deterministic and ensemble, are in good agreement with the
placement of a persistent area of low pressure over the eastern
Gulf and immediately offshore of the Alaska Panhandle on Monday.
Similar agreement exists with the position of a ridge of high
pressure located over the AKPEN. Thus, we can ascertain a greater
degree of confidence in conditions over the Gulf of Alaska and
into Southcentral at the beginning of the long term period.
Dry conditions can be anticipated over the entirety of
Southcentral on Monday. General northwesterly flow aloft and at
the surface will continue to reinforce a colder air mass into the
region and the western Gulf. Enhanced outflow winds spilling out
of the bays and passes will likely be prevalent from the Western
Alaska Range into Prince William Sound. While confidence in
potential winds as well as precipitation, including snow, will
remain low Wednesday into Thursday, a changeover from dry to wet
appears likely across Southcentral by Wednesday afternoon. Warm
air advection into the northern Gulf Coast, as southeasterly winds
pick up in strength ahead of the front and low, may also cause
precipitation issues as the potential for overrunning increases.
That brings us back to the Bering where questions abound. A
colder Bering low to the north of the Western Aleutians, is
forecast to interact with a much warmer North Pacific low tracking
into the Western Aleutians from the south. Combining the
ensembles gives a vague but somewhat trustworthy picture Monday
into Tuesday. Both lows begin to phase Monday night with the
development of one broadscale low forming over the southern Bering
by Tuesday morning. A threat for widespread gales and potential
storm force winds will exist across much of the Bering before the
newly developed low finally moves inland of the Alaska Coast
sometime through Wednesday morning. A strong front will likely
extend southeastward from the low and sweep across the Aleutians
in concert with its parent low over the Bering. Snow, rain and
enhanced winds will all be possible with the low's and front's
progress eastward. The best chance for impacts from snow across
Southwest will exist Tuesday night into Wednesday, with strong
north to northwesterly winds likely to accompany the backside of
the low, through the eastern Bering and over Bristol Bay and the
AKPEN. Finally, high pressure builds into the Bering over the
latter half of the day on Thursday. Regardless of timing, a highly
unsettled weather pattern looks to unfold early to the middle of
next week.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning: 187, 185.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning: 172-175.
Storm Warning: 414, 413, 180, 179, 177, 176, 171,
170, 155, 138, 119.
Gale Warning: 412, 411, 352, 351, 178, 165, 160, 150,
139, 137, 136, 132-130, 120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DAN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
LONG TERM...BL2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust to 65 knots (75 mph) was recorded by a NOS-NWLON observing site in Atka on the morning of October 28th.
The Dutch Harbor AWOS reported a peak wind gust of 73 knots (84 mph) on the evening of October 28th. Wind gusts in excess of 65 knots (75 mph) were also reported by the AWOS in Akutan for a period of several hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, October 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1090458, 1090013.