A low pressure system moving into Southwest Alaska from the Bering Sea, sending a layer of warm air aloft overtop sub-freezing surface temperatures. This resulted in a light mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain for a number of locations across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay area.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A low pressure system moving into Southwest Alaska from the Bering Sea, sending a layer of warm air aloft overtop sub-freezing surface temperatures. This resulted in a light mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain for a number of locations across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay area. Accumulating ice was minimal for this event.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 28, 10:39 PM AKST, 5 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 1039 PM AKST Mon Nov 28 2022 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The low that brought the snow to Kodiak and the Bristol Bay region is just southeast of Kodiak Island this afternoon and continuing to track southeast. A high amplitude ridge continues to build over Southwest Alaska which will bring in increased northerly flow to southern Alaska and is clearing out the remaining clouds from the region. This is also leaving a tight pressure gradient along the north Gulf coast resulting in gusty winds through channeled terrain. Warm conditions persist over the central and western Bering Sea under the upper level ridge. Over Southwest mainland Alaska the temperatures are cold at the surface this afternoon, but this warm ridge over the Bering is setting up that region for a strong inversion to develop again over that area. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models remain in good synoptic agreement again today. The more southerly track of the storm over Kodiak which was discussed yesterday was the correct track. Not too much else to say for the near-term with the models as high-resolution ones are being used to ascertain the timing and strength of the winds in Valdez and possibly the Matanuska Valley. Late in the week there will be a strong low in the western/central Bering Sea. The overall agreement is much better today and the GFS and GEM are very close to each other. The EC is a bit farther east and weaker, but suspect it will shift closer to GFS/GEM solution in upcoming model runs. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday night)... Snow across Kodiak Island tapers off this afternoon as a low tracks southeast away from the island. Along the gaps and passes of the Southcentral coast, gusty offshore winds persist as high pressure and cold air blanket the interior. An upper-level shortwave is expected to drop over the Eastern Chugach tonight, strengthening the northerly winds through Thompson Pass and Valdez in particular. Winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph are possible, thus, a High Wind Warning is in effect for these two areas from this evening through Tuesday evening. A Matanuska Valley wind is also expected to develop from this evening through tomorrow evening. As a ridge builds overhead Southcentral from the west, strong offshore flow along the coast begin to relax on Wednesday while cold and clear conditions persist. An upper-level trough near eastern Russia will track southeast across Southcentral on Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The minimal amount of moisture with this feature will be blocked by the Alaska Range, so precipitation across Southcentral should also be minimal. If anything, traces of snow may be possible late Wednesday. A surface low develops over the Gulf late Wednesday into Thursday while high pressure builds over the interior. As a result, a tight pressure gradient will form along the Chugach Mountains and gusty winds will likely develop again along the Southcentral coast. The low will depart into the far southeastern Gulf by Thursday afternoon and yet another upper- level ridge will build across Southcentral from the west. Thus, expect clear and cold conditions across the region on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... The longwave pattern features a ridge over the Central Bering and a trough over the Western Bering and NW Pacific. There is a jet core of 100 knots near Pilot Point. On satellite imagery (GOES Airmass RGB) there is a mature low south of Kodiak with the occlusion bent back towards the AKPEN which is still producing a light band of snow and is present on King Salmon's radar. Earlier today blowing snow was observed over portions of Southwest AK and 9 inches of snow fell in Naknek. Tuesday is going to be dry. A upper level disturbance will drop down from NE Russia and bring another round of wintry weather to Southwest. Nunivak will get precipitation first and then Bethel will take a direct hit Wednesday. This is a fast moving storm. Significant accumulations are not expected at this time. The main concern with this system is p-type (freezing rain vs snow vs sleet vs rain or some combo). Stay tuned for more details. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... The longwave pattern features a ridge over the Central Bering and a trough over the Western Bering and NW Pacific. There is a jet core of 100 knots near Attu. On satellite imagery (GOES Airmass RGB) there is a mature low south of Kodiak with the occlusion bent back towards the AKPEN which is still producing a light band of snow. Additionally, there is another mature low near Kamchatka that has brought a cold front to the Western Aleutians. Also on satellite imagery (CIMSS Mimic PW) there are 2 discernible fetches of moisture from the Central Pacific that are entrained into each low. The models bring this moisture to the Aleutian chain and into the Bering this forecast period. Expect gales and small crafts. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... Overall model agreement with deterministic and ensemble guidance is fairly good in the long term with above average predictability through Sunday before model solutions diverge. The notable weather features include a high amplitude ridge over western Alaska and a series of upper shortwaves and attendant surfaces lows attempting to break down the ridge or ride over it's axis from a deep trough over eastern Russia. The first shortwave and surface low will transit the Bering Strait on Friday, with it's front likely bringing an initial bout of rain followed quickly by snow to the Kuskokwim Delta and River areas as the system occludes and much colder air returns aloft. Other than some light precipitation and gusty onshore winds, this system won't have much impact on the AOR. The primary focus for the long term will be a strong storm developing along the southern periphery of the Russian trough and moving quickly into the Western and Central Bering Saturday. This looks like a likely high wind scenario for the Central and Western Aleutians with widespread high seas and gale to storm force winds across the Bering Saturday and Sunday. Models have trended more towards yesterdays ECMWF track into the Gulf of Anadyr, which would put the western coast of Alaska into south-southeast flow. Lunar cycles are not supportive of a high high-tide so that should help mitigate any coastal flood issues in addition to the fetch of wind and waves no longer being as favorable (south-southeast instead of southwest) for high water. There remains a possibility for sea ice related issues but this remains uncertain at this time. As this strong low moves north into the High Arctic another will be quick to follow. The main impact from this system will be a sweeping front that will move across the Bering Sea Monday, reaching the coast Monday morning. With the occlusion of the previous low and additional cold air from this system, the atmosphere will cool considerably, bringing the return of normal winter weather to the region. The two subsequent storms will likely be enough to break down the ridge or at least shift it far enough to the east, to return precipitation to Southcentral. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...High Wind Warning: 131. MARINE...Gale Warning 127 FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS LONG TERM...CJ
1 winter weather, 1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.
An employee at the NWS WSO in Bethel reported a mix of freezing rain and ice pellets falling at around 7 AM on the morning of November 30th. Several AWOS sensors nearby also reported several instances of unknown precipitation from around the same time.
Several AWOS sensors across Bristol Bay reported periods of light freezing rain near midday on November 30th, including Dillingham and King Salmon.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1093753, 1093754.