What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 5, 2:35 PM AKST, 10 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 5, 2:35 PM AKST, 10 hours 25 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
235 PM AKST Sat Feb 5 2022
corrected Hazard information
.SYNOPSIS...A mix of weather across the forecast area the next
couple days with Wind Chill on the North Slope and in the Brooks
Range, clearing skies from the northwest south of Norton Sound,
and increasing chance of snow for the Interior south of the Yukon
River tonight. Snowfall amounts will generally be less than 2
inches. Temperatures will be falling across the area as cold air
out of the Arctic is pulled south and east into the state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Models...05/12Z solutions are in good agreement in the near term,
but they start diverging late in the short term. Solutions are now
pushing the cold air south, after waffling around a bit the last
few days, so cooling temperatures across the area into midweek.
Will be using a blend of the solutions for precipitation with a
strong lean toward the SREF. Temperatures will not be changed too
much, but we will lower the high temperatures as the diurnal
changes will generally be only 5 to 10 degrees. For the low
temperatures we used a blend, then pushed to colder areas to the
Canadian which has performed better in those areas of late. Winds
will be a blend of solutions with a nudge to the HiRes solutions
in the short term.
Aloft...At 500 hpa...Weak ridging holding over the southeast
Interior as troughing digs southwest across the Arctic to the West
Coast. A 492 dam low is 200 nm north of Banks Island with the
trough axis extending southwest over Kotzebue this afternoon,
then south to a 518 dam low over Cape Romanzof, then southwest to
a 516 dam low just west of the Pribilofs. A 538 dam high is
holding over Northern Siberia, and troughing remains south of the
Aleutians. By Sunday afternoon troughing will persist over the
state with a 489 dam low over Banks Island, a 493 dam low
developing over the Upper Kobuk, and 512 dam low over the
Pribilofs, as troughing continues to dig southwest. Weak ridging
will continue to push northwest into the Central Interior. High
remains nearly stationary over Siberia, and troughing persists
south of the Aleutians. Monday afternoon the trough will persist
with a low over Banks Island merging with a 477 dam low over the
Canadian Archipelago and the trough extending southwest to a 500
dam low over Kaktovik, to a 492 dam low over Cape Romanzof and
southwest over Adak. High over Siberia is stationary, and weak
ridging continues to push northwest into the Central Interior with
southwest flow south of the Brooks Range. At 850 hpa...Cold air
from over the North Pole is being pulled south as the upper level
trough digs southwest across the state, so temperatures will trend
down with the -20C isotherm being pushed south of the Alaska
Range by Monday morning.
Surface...A narrow warm front is moving east across the Arctic,
but a strong cold front is following close behind it, so
temperatures will rise for a while this evening, but then trend
down as breaks develop in the clouds. A 1010 mb high is 600 nm
north of Demarcation Point. A 1002 mb low has moved into the
Central Beaufort Sea and will move south through Sunday afternoon
before merging with low pressure over the southern Northwest
Territories. High pressure over the Central Yukon Territory
extends northwest over the Upper Yukon Flats, then west over the
Brooks Range to a 1031 mb high in Chukotka. A decaying front lies
roughly along the Yukon River. A 977 mb low is moving out of the
North Pacific and is 200 nm south of Kodiak City with a warm front
extending northeast into the southern Gulf of Alaska, then
southeast to Sitka. Troughing extends west into the southern
Bering Sea to a 995 mb low southwest of the Pribilofs, to a 982 mb
low west of Attu. Sunday afternoon a 1034 mb high will be 200 nm
north of Wrangel Island with high pressure pushing east across the
Arctic, southeast into the Arctic Plain, and south over the
Chukotsk Peninsula and Northeast Bering Sea. The low near Kodiak
will move into the Northern Gulf of Alaska near Cordova at 978 mb.
The associated front will move into the southern Interior south
of the Yukon River. Troughing will persist over the Aleutians.
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A short lived warm up is coming
to a rapid end as a cold front moves through the area and
temperatures are starting to fall back to the cold they saw most
of last week. Wind Chill will be an issue as winds pick up along
the coast, mainly east of Utqiagvik, and in the Brooks Range
passes. Snow with the front will be tapering off and expect some
clearing. From Utqiagvik west winds north to northeast at 5 to 15
mph, while to the east of Utqiagvik winds will be west to
northwest at 5 to 25 mph with the strongest winds east of
Deadhorse. Lows tonight will range from the teens below to the 30s
below with the coldest temperatures in the plains. Highs Sunday
range from single digits below west of Point Lay to the 20s and
30s below for the remainder of the area.
West Coast and Western Interior...Strong windy conditions through
the Bering Strait will continue, but weaken a bit Sunday before
picking back up Monday afternoon. The decaying front is in Norton
Sound and will be pushed south and east as the cold air to the
north pushes into the area. Snowfall will be mainly southeast of
Anvik with generally less than one inch of snow accumulation.
Skies will be clearing as the front moves southeast tonight. Winds
through the Bering Strait and on St Lawrence Island north to
northeast at 20 to 35 mph gusting near 50 mph this evening,
diminishing to 15 to 25 mph gusting around 35 mph Sunday. The
remainder of the area will have north winds 5 to 15 mph with the
strongest winds along the coast. Winds will increase Sunday
evening in the Chukchi Sea and through the Bering Strait. Lows
tonight will range from single digits below in the Lower Yukon
Delta to the teens below on the Chukchi Sea Coast to the 20s and
30s below in inland areas. Highs Sunday will not rebound much with
temperatures only 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the overnight lows.
Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with some light snow
developing as a decaying front moves across the Alaska Range into
the area south of the Yukon River. Snowfall overnight will taper
off by Sunday afternoon in the Fairbanks area, but snowfall will
pick up in the Southeast Interior. Snow accumulation generally
less than 2 inches. North of the Yukon River skies will remain
mostly clear, with clearing skies from the northwest Sunday for
the remainder of the area along with falling temperatures.
Gusty winds to 40 mph around Delta Junction and south to the
Alaska Range will diminish through the evening. Winds across the
remainder of the area will be variable to 10 mph. Winds will be
picking up on the Summits along the Steese and Elliott Highways
Monday evening. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
single digits below in the Tanana Valley and Alaska Range to 20s
to 30s below from the Yukon Valley north. High temperatures on
Sunday will only be 5 to 10 degrees warmer that the overnight
lows as cold air pushes southeast into the area.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Warmer with chances of snow to
in the eastern half of the Interior, while a deep pool of cold
air will hold on over the West Coast until the end of the week. In
the Arctic a gradual warm up will occur.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210.
Wind Chill Warning for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ218.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.
&&
SDB FEB 22
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Feb 5, 9:27 PM AKST, 3 hours 33 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
927 PM AKST Sat Feb 5 2022
AKZ220>222-225-062100-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Middle Tanana Valley-Denali-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village,
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs,
Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto,
Manley Hot Springs, Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood,
Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole,
Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs,
Sourdough Camp, Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
927 PM AKST Sat Feb 5 2022
...Snow Continuing Into Sunday...
Light snow is falling from Eagle Summit to Fairbanks to Nenana,
and will continue through Sunday afternoon. Snow will spread south
over Denali Park and Eielson Air Force Base later tonight. A
storm total of 2 to 4 inches is expected by the time the snow
tapers off Sunday afternoon.
Fairbanks had 1.4 inches of snow between 3pm and 9pm Saturday.
Another 2 inches of snow is expected in Fairbanks by noon Sunday.
JB