Blizzard and Winter Storm in Alaska, December 22 to 25, 2022

Name: Blizzard and Winter Storm in Alaska, December 22 to 25, 2022
Start: 2022-12-22T21:00
End: 2022-12-25T02:26
Location: Alaska

December 22 to 25, 2022 · NWS AFC · 6 events in 5 counties and zones

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

A strong upper-level trough originating in the Arctic dove southwestward across Southcentral Alaska on the evening of December 22 through December 23, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold, dense Arctic air into an already cold environment. This combined with a pre-existing strong pressure gradient between strong surface high pressure in Interior Alaska and low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska to produce strong winds through gaps and passes across southern mainland Alaska. Blizzard conditions were seen in the Matanuska Valley, where 65 to 83 mph winds lofted snow and reduced visibility. Winds knocked out power to 7000 residents in the Matanuska Valley and the Anchorage Bowl. Blowing and drifting snow, as well as wind chills as low as 55 degrees below zero were also observed in other portions of Southcentral Alaska.

The trough closed off into a low pressure system aloft late on December 23 as it began to track westward across Southwest Alaska and into the Eastern Bering Sea, allowing conditions to gradually improve over Southcentral Alaska. The upper level low began to interact with a weak surface low crossing the Alaska Peninsula into Bristol Bay on December 24, dropping snow in both regions. Combined with gusty winds, blowing snow affected portions of Bristol Bay and the Pribilof Islands on the evening of December 24 into the morning of December 25 as the system continued into the eastern Bering Sea. Active weather diminished as the low tracked further west into the Bering Sea over the following days.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 22, 4:45 PM AKST, 4 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 22, 4:45 PM AKST, 4 hours 15 minutes before

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKST Thu Dec 22 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A Rex Blocking pattern currently extends across the North Pacific
with high pressure extending from Siberia to across the Alaskan
mainland and low pressure to the south of the Aleutian Islands.
This pattern is resulting in rain and strong winds for the
central and eastern Aleutians.

Closer to the surface, radar shows rain slowly moving northward
along the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance remains in good agreement with respect to the placement
and intensity of synoptic scale features at both the surface and
in the upper levels. There is some model discrepancy on the exact
track of a low in the Gulf Friday into Saturday. Therefore, there
is moderate confidence at best with respect to the Friday night
through Saturday morning snowfall forecast for Kodiak Island.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist for this TAF period.
Northeasterly winds will increase tonight into Friday. Confidence
is high that winds will meet and or exceed 35 kt Friday afternoon
and continue into the evening across the air field.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Sunday)...

The forecast is on track for a "bora" windstorm across Southcentral
tonight through Friday night, with widespread gusty winds and
very cold air temperatures and wind chill temperatures. The Arctic
trough diving southwestward across Southcentral does look a bit
stronger than yesterday, which is reflected in the strength of low
level cold air advection and strength of the low level jet. As a
result, maximum wind gusts on Friday could be a bit higher than
the forecast. The greatest impacts from this event will come from
reduced visibilities due to blowing snow. Secondarily, areas of
drifting snow could deepen and create an additional hazard. The
worst hit area will be the Matanuska Valley where some of the
strongest winds are expected. However, gusty winds will develop
across much of Southcentral tonight and Friday, with some of the
stronger winds expected over the northern Copper River Basin
(along the Alaska Range), through Thompson Pass/Valdez, the
Susitna Valley, north to west Anchorage and the western Kenai
Peninsula from Nikiski south to Homer.

Winds will begin to diminish friday night, but is will be a slow
process as pressure gradient remain tight with a surface low
crossing the Gulf. This low will bring snow back into the
forecast, arriving in the Copper River Basin and eastern Prince
William Sound areas Friday night/Saturday morning before spreading
west to the eastern Kenai Peninsula during the day Saturday. This
system will be fairly weak in nature, so snowfall will be light.
Low level offshore flow out ahead of the low will also tend to
maintain drier near surface air, which supports the idea of
lighter snowfall.

A much larger and stronger storm system will make its way into
the Gulf Saturday night through Sunday. With a far south storm
track, the strongest winds and heaviest precipitation will
initially remain down over the Gulf through Sunday. However, an
occluded front will spread out from the low center, bringing
precipitation to Kodiak Island Sunday and onshore along the
north Gulf coast by late Sunday. The airmass out ahead of this
will start out cold enough for snow, but there likely will be a
transition to rain along the immediate coast Sunday night into
Monday as warmer air moves in with the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon
through Sunday afternoon)...

The gusty conditions from this morning have quieted down along the
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) as pressure gradients have somewhat
relaxed. Light precipitation returns are apparent on the King
Salmon radar over Bristol Bay land and marine zones this
afternoon, but due to dry air near and at the surface, very little
is reaching the ground. Any precipitation around Bristol Bay
comes to an end tonight as a Bering Sea system continues tracking
westward near the central Aleutian Chain. The AKPEN continues with
a rain/snow mix through Friday afternoon as easterly to
southeasterly upslope flow continues. A robust shortwave ejects
westward from an upper trough located over Yukon, Canada Friday
afternoon into the evening hours. This will spawn a strong low
pressure system over the AKPEN/Extreme southeastern Bering Sea
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that coastal Bristol
Bay and southern Kuskokwim Delta locations stand the best chance
at seeing some precipitation in the form of snow early Saturday
morning. Amounts, if any, appear to be light due to the low being
too far off shore at this time. The potential is there for more
accumulation if the low forms further eastward and closer to the
coast. The bigger story for Saturday will be in the evening and
overnight as strong gusty northeast offshore flow strengthens.
Wind-chills could be quite low as cold air advects in from the
northeast. Conditions for Christmas Day are trending to be quiet
and cold for mainland Southwest, with the southern AKPEN remaining
somewhat active with scattered rain/snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon
through Sunday afternoon)...

Active weather will continue for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain
through the short-term period. The heaviest rain has tapered off
from Unalaska/Dutch Harbor with only scattered showers around the
area. A flood warning is still out for that area until Friday
morning. The low pressure responsible for all the rain over the
eastern Aleutians over the past few days continues to elongate and
weaken as it slowly drifts northwestward. The Pribilofs continue
to see scattered rain and snow showers through day on Saturday
before tapering off in the afternoon and evening as multiple
shortwaves traverse westward over the central Bering. Some
uncertainty then ensues for Saturday afternoon through the rest of
the short-term period on Christmas Day. A robust shortwave ejects
westward from an upper trough in Yukon, Canada. The general
evolution takes the shortwave over Southwest and into Bristol
Bay/Eastern Bering where a strong surface low pressure is set to
spin up around the Alaska Peninsula. At this time, the exact track
of the surface feature is not well resolved, but current
indications are that the system will pull down quite a bit of cold
air from mainland Alaska and snow would be the dominant
precipitation type with this system. Please pay attention to
additional forecast updates as details continue to be nailed down
and the evolution of this potential winter storm become clearer.

$$.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Looking ahead in the extended forecast, the latest model runs and
ensemble guidance are in fairly decent agreement with the
evolution and progression of the synoptic features. An upper level
wave over northeastern Alaska will retrograde southwestward into
a closed upper low. Compared to previous runs where the center of
the low was over the eastern Bering, the models now track it to
the western Bering instead. The low will remain quasi-stationary
early next week, but models significantly diverge from Tuesday
onward. Meanwhile, the upper low will push storm systems from the
Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska. While specific details still need
to ironed out, most of the coastal areas will see some wintry mix
and inland areas will stay on the drier side. A general troughing
pattern associated with the aforementioned low out west will
result in an unsettled pattern for much of the Bering Sea and
Aleutians Islands heading into late next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC - MARINE - FIRE WEATHER:
Please visit weather.gov/anchorage for the current list

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DN
LONG TERM...MF

Event by event

2 cold/wind chill, 2 blizzard, 1 winter storm, 1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.

Cold/Wind Chill, Copper River Basin

When: December 22, 9:00 PM AKST to December 24, 12:00 PM AKST
Where: Copper River Basin forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways

Wind chills below -40F were observed through passes around the periphery of the Copper River Basin, where cold, dense air from the Interior became channeled and increased winds. Within the basin itself, winds remained much calmer. An Alaska Department of Transportation observing station in Mentasta Pass reported persistent gusting above 15 mph with wind chills as low as -55F beginning late on December 22. By the afternoon of December 23, winds became sustained at 15 mph or greater, with wind chills remaining below -40F into the morning of December 24. Wind chills below -40F were also recorded at an observation site in Chickaloon. Wind chills below -40F were most widespread from the evening of December 23 into the morning hours of December 24. Winds diminished by midday on December 24, allowing the cold wind chills to end.

Cold/Wind Chill, Nern P.W. Snd

When: December 23, 1:00 AM AKST to December 24, 10:00 PM AKST
Where: Nern P.W. Snd forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways

Temperatures initially rose with the arrival of a cold, dense airmass during the early morning hours of December 23 as northeasterly winds vertically mixed warmer air aloft down to the surface across Northeastern Prince William Sound. However, colder air gradually worked in throughout the day, allowing temperatures to fall. The Alaska Department of Transportation reported 25 to 45 mph winds through Thompson Pass, causing wind chills below -40F by December 24. Winds diminished late on December 24, ending the cold wind chills.

Blizzard, Nern P.W. Snd

When: December 23, 4:15 AM AKST to 8:00 PM AKST
Where: Nern P.W. Snd forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways

Blowing snow was observed on the Valdez Airport FAA webcam during the morning hours of December 23, suggesting that strong winds through Thompson Pass were also lofting snow. Later reports from the Alaska Department of Transportation indicated that road conditions were rated difficult along the Richardson Highway through Thompson Pass.

Blizzard, Matanuska Valley

When: December 23, 10:49 AM AKST to 4:20 PM AKST
Where: Matanuska Valley forecast zone
Reported by: ASOS

Surface observations indicated blowing snow began around midnight on December 23 as northeasterly gap winds rapidly developed and conditions worsened through the day. Winds were sustained at around 40 knots (46 mph) at both the Palmer and Wasilla surface observing sites for nearly 21 hours from the early morning through nearly midnight. Wind gusts reached 71 knots (82 mph) at the peak of the event (405 PM December 23) as observed by the Palmer ASOS. Blizzard conditions were most widespread and were recorded at both the ASOS in Palmer and the AWOS in Wasilla around midday December 23. The Wasilla AWOS stopped reporting any data during the peak of the event.

This wind event was exacerbated by the amount of snow on the ground; snow that had fallen earlier in the month. Ground blizzard conditions were noted at several area weather stations as snow and blowing snow, as well as visibilities reduced |to a quarter mile at times over the period. At least 2000 residents lost power in the Matanuska Valley as a result of the winds.

While winds were less notable across the Anchorage Bowl during this event (with gusts reaching into the 60 mph range), these gusts did cause blowing and drifting snow impacts along the Knik Arm, affecting the northern portion of town and leading to power loss across portions of Anchorage as well.

Winter Storm, Bristol Bay

When: December 24, 8:18 AM AKST to 7:31 PM AKST
Where: Bristol Bay forecast zone
Reported by: ASOS

A band of snow developed across the Alaska Peninsula and the Bristol Bay region on the morning of December 24. Several surface observing stations recorded sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots (23 to 35 mph) and visibility at or below 1/2 mile with blowing snow for several hours from Pilot Point to King Salmon along the Alaska Peninsula and from the Dillingham area north to Koliganek in the Bristol Bay region. The worst conditions were seen at locations along the coast, with a brief period of blizzard-like conditions observed by the Clarks Point AWOS during the afternoon. By early evening on December 24, winds diminished, resulting in improved conditions area-wide, though light snow would continue into the overnight hours.

Winter Weather, Pribilof Islands

When: December 24, 10:27 PM AKST to December 25, 2:26 AM AKST
Where: Pribilof Islands forecast zone
Reported by: ASOS

Observations from both the Saint Paul ASOS and Saint George ASOS recorded reductions in visibility to 1/2 mile at times due to blowing snow. Winds gusted to around 40 knots (46 mph) at the onset of the heaviest snow late on December 24 and gradually diminished through the following day. Low visibility continued through the afternoon of December 25 before improving rapidly as snow ended.

What these are

Cold/Wind Chill: Cold or wind chill below warning criteria that caused deaths, injuries or damage.
Blizzard: Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.
Winter Storm: A storm that brought snow, sleet or freezing rain at warning levels, usually over several hours or days.
Winter Weather: Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2022 Every state in 2022 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, December 2022

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1096947, 1096992, 1096993, 1095756, 1097623, 1097217.