Extreme Cold in Alaska, December 18 to 23, 2022

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
111 PM AKST Sat Dec 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Beautiful skies with abundant cold will remain across the
Interior and North Slope as a strong surface high dominates
weather conditions into early next week. Expect it to be a bit
warmer from Nome south along the coast as southeast flow brings
warmer air into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The major feature and associated pattern at 500 hpa will focus on
the 564 decameter (dam) high over Southwest Alaska and associated
ridge that extends north up the West Coast, these features will
slowly slide north through Monday. Across the Central and Eastern
Interior, northerly flow will keep reinforcing the colder
temperatures that are in place at the surface. A shortwave will
dive south through the Central Interior this afternoon and
evening, increasing chances of cloudy skies for the Eastern
Interior tonight.

At the surface, a strong surface high remains the dominate
feature over Northern Alaska. This high will maintain its strength
and slowly propagate eastward through Sunday. Resulting in dry
and cold conditions heading into next week.

Model Discussion...
Model spread between solutions are in good agreement through early
next week with a general consenus of clear and cold conditions
continuing across the Interior. With that being said, for this
afternoon's forecast package, we went with a general blend of
model solutions, making minor changes to the inherited forecast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Expect benign weather conditions across the region for the next
several days. Most locations will have clear skies with the
exception from Deadhorse east where a band of low stratus exists
just offshore which extends to Barter Island, these clouds will
increase the threat of flurries through this evening. Otherwise,
highs this weekend will soar into the single digits to teens
below, except 20s below inland, and lows will dip into the teens
to 20s below, except 30s below in the plains.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Not much to write home about with mainly clear skies and dry
conditions across the region as high pressure builds over the West
Coast through early next week. Expect strong easterly winds 20 to
30 mph along the coast, including St. Lawrence Island, primarily
south of the Seward Peninsula through Sunday as low pressure moves
north across the Western Bering. Temperatures for coastal
communities will remain warmer than the inland counterparts, with
highs climbing into the 10s above zero while lows only dip into
the low single digits above zero. For inland communities, expect
highs in the 10s to 20s below zero with lows in the 20s to 30s
below through early next week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Clear and cold, even at higher elevations with the depth of cold
air in place, is the main story across the region over the next
several days as high pressure dominates. A shortwave will dive
down from the northwest this evening, bringing increased
cloudiness across the Eastern Interior tonight. This coupled with
pesky low stratus that has plagued some valley locations over the
last several nights, will help warm temperatures ever so slightly
for tonight's lows. Winds generally light and variable, except
near Delta Junction where easterly winds will increase to 15 to 20
mph this afternoon as a Tanana Valley Jet develops. This coupled
with cold temperatures in place, will bring wind chill values down
into the 40s to 50s below from Delta Junction east, hence the
Wind Chill Advisory that has been issued for this location into
Sunday afternoon. Speaking of temperatures, confidence remains
high as cold temperatures will remain entrenched across the region
through Monday. Many locations will see temps in the 20s and 30s
below, while temperatures across the Yukon Flats, Upper Tanana
Valley, and Fortymile Country plunge into the 30s and 40s below,
possibly a few of the colder spots into the low 50s below.

Coastal Hazard Potential for Days 3 and 4...
No concerns at this time.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
For the extended period that begins early Wednesday, models
continue to indicate a relatively benign weather pattern across
most of Northern Alaska with mainly clear skies and cold
conditions. The coldest temperatures will be confined to the
Eastern Interior where lows will regularly dip down into the 30s
to 40s below for many of the typical cold spots across the Yukon
Flats south across the Fortymile Country to the Upper Tanana
Valley.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ223.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ201-PKZ220.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

&&

RZ DEC 22