NWS Riverton, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 4, 10:29 AM MST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 4, 10:29 AM MST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1029 AM MST Sat Dec 4 2021
.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
Issued at 356 AM MST Sat Dec 4 2021
Quite a lot to talk about over the next few days. First with some
colder air moving in from the north, some low clouds and patchy fog
have formed across the north. These should last through the night
and into the first part of the morning before lifting. And this
brings us to the next concern, high wind.
The pattern looks favorable for high wind for many locations. A
cold front will be droppings southward out of Montana, tightening
the pressure gradient.The first places to see it will be the
favored pre frontal locations, like the lee of the Absarokas and
the southwestern Wind Corridor. The one area that looks concerning
is the Lander Foothills. The 700 millibar flow looks more west
than southwest, which is usually not favored for high wind.
However, there will be plenty of mid level wind, 50 to as much as
75 knots, depending on which model you believe. Also, there will
be plenty of downward forcing courtesy of the front right quadrant
of an 140 knot jet streak.So, we will leave the warnings as is
for now. We also thought about adding Sweetwater County. The 700
millibar winds are plenty strong, but guidance is borderline.
There is a special weather statement up for that area, and again
we will stick with that for now.
The aforementioned front will then drop southward into Wyoming later
tonight and drop through the state on Sunday. The main threat of
high wind will then shift to areas favored by the cold advection /
northwest flow regime, mainly the Wind River Basin, Big Horn Basin
and especially Johnson County. The NAM guidance is especially
bullish for northern Johnson County, having 43 knots sustained at
the Buffalo airport. This does tend to be overcooked though. The GFS
guidance looks more reasonable at 35 knots, but high wind
nevertheless. This will likely peak in the morning hours following
the frontal passage, then decreasing later in the afternoon as the
pressure gradient decreases and the front moves southward.
Now on the other threat snow. There will be plenty of upper level
forcing with the jet energy. However, the front does not have a lot
of moisture to work with. So in most areas, amounts should be on the
light side. However, with the front, this will likely be a banded
snow. In other words, the kind of snow where accumulations will vary
over the short distance and are impossible to pinpoint a few hours
out, let alone more than 24 hours out. It would not surprise me if a
few spots in the lower elevations picked up 2 or 3 inches of snow on
Sunday. Snow would mainly fall over the northern third of the area,
roughly north of a line from Casper to Thermopolis to Jackson. Areas
in the south will see dry conditions continue. Like the wind, snow
showers should become less numerous late and basically end shortly
after sunset. As for temperatures, it will be slap to the face for
many people. It looks to only go back to seasonal normals for most,
but after the record warmth it will feel cold. Temperatures may end
up falling during the day on Sunday. There is a large spread in
guidance for Sunday night, as much as 15 degrees. The NAM again
seems to cold, especially in areas that would see little or no snow
on Sunday. We split the middle for now.
Concerns then shift to western Wyoming as a Pacific system begins to
approach the area. The models continue to slow on its progression
though. Most now hold any precipitation off until around sunrise
Monday across the west. The heaviest precipitation looks to be
Monday night through, when the trough axis reaches the west. Some
highlights may be needed for this, although at this point it looks
more like advisories. There is much more uncertainty East of the
Divide. The GFS continues to split the system and only has light
precipitation. The European is more bullish but even it has some
splitting. For now, we kept QPF on the light side. We also have the
same problem with temperatures, with some areas having a 20 degree
spread in guidance. Again, a lot will depend on potential snow cover
and the NAM looks too cold again. For now, we blended the guidance.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday
Issued at 356 AM MST Sat Dec 4 2021
Northwest flow aloft on Tuesday with a weak weather system in the
flow. This would produce some light snow in the mountains. Scattered
light snow may occur Tuesday in the central and south per some of
the models. Will keep low chance going for now and see how things
look in time. Wednesday looks dry east of the divide and breezy to
windy. In the west, a moist west northwest flow will occur. A good
chance of snow in the western mountains with some snow in the
western valleys Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thursday looks dry
for most places with lingering light snow possible in the mountains.
High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be more like what
December temps should be, with mainly 30s to around 40 at the lower
elevations with teens and 20s in the mountains.
The GFS and ECMWF models are trending toward a developing weather
system in the Great Basin late Thursday night through Friday. The
track in progressive for now, but an upper low may develop in time.
Will be watching this weather pattern in the coming days. At this
time, the west and south would be the favorable locations for snow,
with the central zones on the northern edge of the snow. This may
well change in time, so stay tuned. High temps Friday will only be
in the 20s to around 30 Friday with teens to lower 20s in the
mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday
West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals
Winds will be light at the start of the period, with KRKS
increasing to 25 kt by 19Z. KBPI and KJAC will also have gusts
near 20 kt this afternoon. High clouds will stream over the area
from the northwest, with BKN-OVC conditions occurring at KJAC by
12Z. Winds will continue to increase at KJAC and KRKS this
evening, with gusts of 30 to 35 kt. Strong winds will occur at
KRKS by 10Z, with gusts near 45 kt by 15Z. Gusts of 25 to 30 kt
will occur at the other TAF sites through the rest of the TAF
period.
East of the Divide....KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals
Conditions continue to improve, with low clouds and areas of fog
lifting. KWRL remains LIFR, but is expected to quickly improve by
19Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will occur through much of the TAF
period. Wind speeds will be on the increase at many terminal
sites this afternoon through 12Z Sunday. Wind gusts over 40 knots
will be common. Snow will develop in the northern WY mountains
after 03Z, with mountain obscurations and continue through the
rest of the TAF period. A cold front will enter northern portions
by 12Z, with snow showers expected at KCOD by 14Z and KWRL by 17Z.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 AM MST Sat Dec 4 2021
Strong to high winds will occur across many areas today, especially
in the lee of the mountain ranges and from the Green and Rattlesnake
Range through Natrona County today and tonight. Relative humidity
should remain above critical levels for the most part. Mixing and
smoke dispersal will be generally fair to poor in the afternoon but
locally good in the lee of the Absarokas. A cold front dropping
southward will bring colder weather late tonight and Sunday along
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
WYZ028>030.
High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM MST Sunday
for WYZ019-020.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 3 PM MST Sunday for WYZ004-006-
010.
High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Sunday for
WYZ017.
High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Sunday for WYZ016.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM MST Sunday for WYZ015.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM MST Sunday for WYZ002-003.
&&
SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TL
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings