A surface low tracked northeast from the central Plains through the western Great Lakes region late Friday night (12/10) into Saturday morning (12/11), bringing 8 to 14 inches of snow to northern Wisconsin and portions of central and northeast Wisconsin. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph led to blowing and drifting of snow and power outages across portions of northern Wisconsin with over 14,000…
Every event with a place to put it; 17 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
A surface low tracked northeast from the central Plains through the western Great Lakes region late Friday night (12/10) into Saturday morning (12/11), bringing 8 to 14 inches of snow to northern Wisconsin and portions of central and northeast Wisconsin. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph led to blowing and drifting of snow and power outages across portions of northern Wisconsin with over 14,000 customers reported without power.
Some of the highest snowfall totals included 14.0 inches in Monico (Oneida Co.), 13.5 inches in Irma (Lincoln Co.), 13.0 inches near Spread Eagle (Florence Co.), 12.7 inches near Merrill (Lincoln Co.), 12.5 inches in Crivitz (southern Marinette Co.) as well as near Amberg (northern Marinette Co.), 12.0 inches in Colby (Marathon Co.) and 11.0 inches in Arbor Vitae (Vilas Co.).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 10, 12:08 PM CST, 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1208 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance and new information added to update section .UPDATE... Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Forecast appears to be generally on track. There may be some minor adjustments to precipitation type and snowfall amounts on the southeast periphery of the headlines, due to the warm layer aloft advecting slightly farther north. Also need to take a closer look at whether a dry slot will punch a little farther northwest into the area. Also looking at models trends toward a band of higher QPF northwest of GRB during the overnight period - perhaps evidence of a developing TROWAL. && .SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday Issued at 419 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 The greatest weather impact for the entire forecast period will be the Winter Storm moving through the area this afternoon into Saturday morning. Still a challenging forecast with respect to snowfall totals across the Fox Valley, Green Bay into the Door Peninsula. Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories remain in effect for much of northeast Wisconsin. No changes were made to Winter headlines with this forecast update. Today: A surface ridge, in place across northeast Wisconsin this morning, is expected to quickly exit to the northeast by early afternoon as the well-advertised winter storm system takes shape across the central Plains. The surface low is expected to steadily intensify as it lifts northeastward, reaching northeast Missouri by 00Z/11. Ahead of the system, Gulf moisture is expected to stream northward as noted by the isobars remaining open to the Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, northeast Wisconsin is expected to remain in the right-entrance region of a west-east oriented upper-level jet positioned over Ontario into southwest Quebec. At the same time, WAA ahead of the system will allow for increased isentropic ascent during the afternoon hours as 850-700 mb FGEN tightens up across portions of central and north-central Wisconsin (this has been the focus of 1+ inch/hr snowfall rates this morning across the Plains). As all of these features come together this afternoon, expect snow to develop, heaviest central/north-central where the aforementioned FGEN banding is focused. Thermal profiles support snow this afternoon; however, that will change later toward the evening hours as warmer air gets drawn north/northwestward. It is possible that some rain may mix in with the snow near the shoreline as surface temperatures warm into the mid to upper 30s. Otherwise, as snow intensities increase this afternoon, expect a quick 1-3 inches between roughly 21Z and 00Z across portions of central into north- central Wisconsin. While this will not be the height of the storm, slippery roads will likely impact the evening commute in those locations. Only light snow is expected outside of the aforementioned band. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 30s. Tonight: The surface low is forecast to shift from northeast Missouri this evening to central Lake Michigan by 12Z/11. Aloft, much of northeast Wisconsin will be under increased upper-level dynamics as a coupled jet remains in place across the area. This will be the right-entrance region of a jet to the north and the left- exit region of a jet nosing in from the south. As mentioned earlier, plenty of moisture will remain in place with PWAT values running around 200-250 percent of normal for this time of year. The theta-E gradient continues to tighten and the associated FGEN banding becomes northeast to southwest oriented across portions of central into north-central Wisconsin as some evidence of a TROWAL formation develops. The mid-level FGEN banding, along with larger-scale forcing and steepening mid-level lapse rates (6-7C/km), will likely lead to impressive snowfall rates. In fact, HREF probabilities indicate nearly 100 percent chance of seeing snowfall rates of 1 inch/hr across central into far northeast Wisconsin between 00Z/11 and 07Z/11. HREF probabilities suggest roughly a 40 percent chance of seeing 2+ inch/hr snowfall rates. Snowfall totals of 6 to 12 inches (locally greater) are expected in the Winter Storm Warned locations, with a majority of that occurring this evening into the early overnight hours. Farther to the southeast, across portions of east-central Wisconsin, a nose of warm air is expected to wrap into the area between roughly 03Z and 09Z before shifting east. This would be along and southeast of a line from southern Oconto County to eastern Waushara County. Snow will likely develop in those locations in the evening before quickly transitioning to mainly rain through much of the night. On the western edge of that line, there will be more of a wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain. Late in the night, the deformation band/FGEN band will wrap through the eastern part of the area, allowing for a quick burst of moderate to perhaps heavy snow across east-central Wisconsin as temperatures quickly decrease aloft. Some thunder will be possible through the night as well with steepening mid-level lapse rates. Generally expecting 1 to 2 inches of snow in the Winter Weather Advisory area, with a brief period of light freezing rain possible overnight. Perhaps the most challenging portion of the forecast will be snow amounts across the Fox Valley up toward Green Bay and the Door Peninsula as a low track shift of 30-50 miles could lead to less snow than is currently forecast. The lower snowfall outcome would be more likely than snowfall totals exceeding the current forecast. Kept the Advisory headlines the same, but there will be a period where the precipitation will likely remain in the form of rain through much of the night. Saturday: The low will continue to lift off to the northeast Saturday morning; however, the aforementioned deformation band/FGEN band will likely be over east-central Wisconsin and the Door Peninsula early in the day, allowing for continued heavy snow in those locations. The rest of the area will see the snowfall gradually taper off from the west. Another major concern from this system will be the tightening pressure gradient with cold air advecting into the region. This combination with an an intense wind core just above the surface will likely lead to north to northwest winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph, with the strongest gusts expected along the lakeshore. This will lead to blowing and drifting snow along with greatly reduced visibilities. East-central WI and far northeast Wisconsin could see an additional 1-3 inches of snow during that time period while much of the rest of the area sees very little snow on Saturday morning. Total snow in the Advisory area is expected to be between 2 and 5 inches (although some snow melt will likely occur between the evening snow and the early morning snow), while the warned area totals will likely be in the 6 to 12+ inch range. .LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday Issued at 419 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 The main story for this period will be the above normal temperatures that are expected over the next week. Dry conditions will prevail Saturday night through Tuesday. With the moist southerly flow on Tuesday, would expect drizzle and some fog to develop Tuesday night especially over the deep snow pack across northern Wisconsin. Some of the recent models indicated readings warming well into the 50s on Wednesday. This may be true across our southeast counties where there will be less snow from the storm today into Saturday, plus melting of the snowpack through mid week would give this area the best chance of seeing these readings. Am concerned about northern Wisconsin where there will be a deeper snow pack and upslope flow where this would promote widespread dense fog and drizzle which would keep temperatures much cooler than advertised. Another interesting tidbit with the system Wednesday into Thursday will be the potential for showers Wednesday night into early Thursday morning along the cold front. Some of the models are indicating a few hundred J/KG of CAPE. There may be some potential for thunder if this hold true. Even if there isn't thunder, the showers may be capable of producing strong winds as the models are indicating 50 to 60 knots at 850mb. Windy conditions are expected on Thursday behind the departing system. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 The initial frontogenetic band of snow has set up over central WI, and is expected to shift or reform farther north as the afternoon wears on. More widespread precipitation will occur by late this afternoon or early evening. Heavy snow will occur along and north of a ISW-EZS-MNM line, with mixed snow, rain, freezing rain and sleet farther southeast. Widespread LIFR/VLIFR flight conditions will develop in association with the heavy snow, with IFR/LIFR where the mixed precipitation occurs. Colder air will arrive in east central WI Saturday morning, leading to a changeover to all snow. The snow will gradually taper off from west to east during the mid to late morning on Saturday. Strong north to northwest winds will develop late tonight into Saturday morning, causing blowing snow. Some LLWS will also develop this evening, and continue at times into Saturday morning. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Saturday for WIZ022-038>040-045-048. Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Saturday for WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-073-074. && UPDATE.........Kieckbusch SHORT TERM.....Cooley LONG TERM......Eckberg AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 801 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111415- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 801 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A significant winter storm will bring a swath of 6 to 12 inches of snow to north central and much of central and far northeast Wisconsin from late this afternoon through late tonight. Warmer air wrapping into central Wisconsin and the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas will result in less snow accumulation and some minor ice accumulations. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible tonight. In addition, winds will gust as high as 25 to 35 mph late tonight, and may result in blowing and drifting snow. Hazardous travel conditions can be expected across the region. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for north central and much of central and northeast Wisconsin. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from around Wautoma to Appleton and Green Bay to Door County. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The significant winter storm will linger across east-central and far northeast Wisconsin through much of Saturday morning. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow and a light glaze of ice will be possible over those locations. Wind gusts are expected to increase to 30 to 45 mph over the entire forecast area, which will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow in north central, central and far northeast Wisconsin. Hazardous travel conditions will persist through much of the day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encourage to report snowfall totals over the next few days. LMZ521-522-541>543-111415- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 801 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday North to northwest gales to 40 kts are expected on Saturday. West gales are possible on Thursday. Kieckbusch
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
17 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
The highest snowfall totals across Lincoln County included 13.5 inches in Irma, 12.7 inches near Merrill, 11.5 inches near Tomahawk, and 10.0 inches near Harrison.
The highest snowfall totals across Marathon County included 12.0 inches in Colby, 8.2 inches near Shantytown, and 8.0 inches near Wausau.
The highest snowfall totals across Langlade County included 10.0 inches in Summit Lake, 9.0 inches in Post Lake, 8.6 inches in White Lake, and 7.5 inches in Antigo.
The highest snowfall totals across Vilas County included 11.0 inches in Arbor Vitae, 10.2 inches near Boulder Junction, and 10.1 inches near Saint Germain.
The highest snowfall totals across Oneida County included 14.0 inches in Monico, 11.0 inches near Rhinelander, and 10.5 inches in Minocqua as well as near Hazelhurst.
The highest snowfall total across Forest County included 7.9 inches near Argonne.
The highest snowfall total across Florence County included 13.0 inches near Spread Eagle.
The highest snowfall totals across northern Marinette County included 12.5 inches near Amberg and 9.0 inches near Athelstane.
The highest snowfall totals across southern Marinette County included 12.5 inches in Crivitz, 8.7 inches southwest of Athelstane, and 7.0 inches near Peshtigo.
The highest snowfall totals across southern Oconto County included 10.1 inches near Stiles, 8.0 inches in Pulaski, and 6.3 inches near Underhill.
The highest snowfall total across northern Oconto County included 8.6 inches near Mountain.
Six to ten inches of snow fall in Menominee County.
The highest snowfall totals across Shawano County included 10.4 inches near Pella, 10.0 inches near Shawano, and 7.5 inches near Bonduel.
The highest snowfall totals across Outagamie County included 9.5 inches near Shiocton and 7.3 inches near New London.
The highest snowfall totals across Wood County included 6.5 inches in Marshfield and 6.0 inches near Port Edwards.
The highest snowfall totals across Portage County included 7.3 inches in Stevens Point as well as near Amherst, 6.5 inches in Rosholt, and 6.4 inches in Plover.
The highest snowfall totals across Waupaca County included 10.5 inches in Iola, 7.8 inches in Scandinavia, and 6.5 inches in Clintonville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 989385, 989387, 989390, 989370, 989371, 989372, 989373, 989374, 989375, 989376, 989377, 989378, 989379, 989380, 989381, 989382, 989383.