Tornadoes and Hail in Missouri, December 10, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
303 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Key Messages:

1. Near record highs expected this afternoon.

2. Severe storms possible east of Hwy 65 this afternoon and
evening.

3. Elevated fire weather conditions likely Saturday and Sunday.

4. More record warmth possible next week.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Surface low pressure is currently located across Kansas this
afternoon. Ahead of the low the pressure gradient has tightened
across the region. As a result gusty southerly winds are occurring
across the area. Wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph will occur at
times this afternoon into this evening.

The gusty southerly winds are also ushering increased moisture and
a warm air mass into the area. Temperatures are currently in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s this afternoon. These warm temperature
for mid December are near record highs for today. Please see the
Climate section below for more details on record highs for the
area.

Instability is also increasing across there area, especially
across south central Missouri. As an upper level trough moves
across the Plains a cold front will move east into the area. The
front will move into the area from west to east during the evening
hours. Ahead of the front for locations east of Highway 65 MLCAPE
values are around 1000 J/kg and cap is weakening. Instability will
continue to increase across the eastern Ozarks this afternoon and
evening. Lift is starting to overspread the region ahead of the
approaching trough.

Showers have developed across portions of western MO ahead. Less
instability and more of a cap has so far prevented any storms. As
this lift moves east into the better instability and less caped
air mass, scattered storms will likely start to develop in the
next couple hours. Coverage will likely be more limited as there
is still a cap and the lift on the front is still in Kansas. But
still their there will be enough lift and instability and a weak
enough cap for scattered storms development in the 3 to 5 PM
timeframe. Strong shear is in place, and with these storms being
scattered in nature, the storm mode will like be supercells. These
storms will move east across the area. As the front moves east
into the area, additional storms are expected to develop again
east of highway 65 during the evening hours. The front and storms
will move out of much of the area by midnight, but a few lingering
showers/storms will be possible into the overnight hours across
the far eastern portions of the forecast area.

Locations east of Highway 65 will see the potential for severe
weather this afternoon and evening. The greatest potential will
however be closer to Highway 63 on to the east where instability
and low level wind shear will be the greatest. Damaging winds,
large hail up to the size of golf balls and a few tornadoes are
possible...including the potential for strong tornadoes along and
east of Highway 63. Again locations east of Highway 63 and south
of I-44 will see the highest severe potential this afternoon and
evening.

Behind the front winds will switch to the west northwest and a
cooler and drier air mass will into the area tonight into
Saturday. Gusty northerly winds will occur overnight into
Saturday, as gusts up to 30 mph will be possible at times. Lows
tonight will drop into the lower 30s tonight. Highs Saturday will
only warm into the middle to upper 40s. A much drier air mass will
move into the area on Saturday and when combined with gusty
northerly winds could lead some elevated fire weather conditions
across the region. The cooler conditions will keep humidity values
from getting too low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

A warming trend will begin Sunday and continue into next week as
the surface high and colder air mass moves off to the east and an
upper level ridge builds towards the region. Highs will warm into
the 50s and may approach the 60s on Sunday. The air mass will
remain in place as moisture return will be slow with the surface
high slowly moving off to the east. As a result Sunday afternoon
humidity values are expected to drop into the 20 to 30 prevent
range. Winds appear to remain a little low for Red Flag
conditions, however widespread elevated fire weather conditions
will occur across the region on Sunday. Fuel conditions will
remain dry as we are not expected much in the way of widespread
rainfall today as storms remain scattered in nature. AS a result
fires will have the potential to develop and spread Sunday
afternoon.

As the ridge moves east temperatures will continue to warm during
the early and middle of next week. Ensemble models are in good
agreement in well above normal temperatures for the next week as
high in the 70s are once again possible. Ensemble models are
continue to show the potential for rain during the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Gusty southerly winds will occur across the area this afternoon
and evening ahead of a storm system and cold front. A cold front
will move through later this evening and winds will shift to the
northwest and continue to be gusty into Saturday.

Scattered storms will be possible at times from later this
afternoon through the evening hours ahead of and with the front.
The better potential for storms will be east of Highway 65 so the
confidence in the KJLN, KSGF, and KBBG sites were to low to add
any mention as again the better potential will be just east of
these TAF locations.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Here are some record highs for Today:

Springfield....72 degrees set in 2020
Joplin.........75 degrees set in 2020
West Plains....73 degrees set in 2020
Vichy/Rolla....71 degrees set in 2020

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Schwartz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1136 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111745-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1136 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph will continue through evening.
Then gusty west to northwesterly winds will occur late this
evening into Saturday morning.

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon
and evening across locations east of Highway 65 and especially
east of Highway 63. Scattered storms will develop during the late
afternoon hours and additional storms will develop this evening as
a cold front sweeps through the area. Damaging winds, large hail
up to the size of golf balls and a few tornadoes are
possible...including the potential for strong tornadoes along and
east of Highway 63.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Elevated fire weather conditions will occur on Saturday through
Monday, especially on Sunday, as low humidity combines with gusty
winds.

Gusty winds will develop again during the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for
locations east of Highway 65.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise