High Wind and Strong Wind in Washington, October 23 to 25, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
303 AM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A front will bring some rain today. A much stronger
frontal system will bring rain, windy conditions, high surf at the
coast and isolated thunderstorms west of Puget Sound Sunday and
Monday. Wet weather will continue for the remainder of next week
as additional weather systems move through.

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.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A front will move through the
area today with rain this morning tapering this afternoon. There
will be locally windy conditions coast and north interior but
nothing very impactful.

A much stronger weather system will affect the area Sunday and
Monday. There will be additional rain during this period but the
main story will be wind.

A very deep surface low west of 130W will track slowly
east/northeast on Sunday. An occluded front ahead of the surface
low will move to the coast Sunday afternoon then inland in the
evening. East/southeast winds will ramp up on Sunday with this
feature. Ensemble guidance lends confidence that damaging high
winds are likely coast and interior north of Everett later Sunday
and Sunday night. There will also be a period of stronger
easterly gap winds for the East Puget Sound Lowlands Sunday but
these winds look to be less impactful and in the advisory
category.

The deep surface low offshore will move inside of 130W on Monday,
filling and weakening as it approaches. A second frontal wave
associated with the surface low will move through the area on
Monday. This looks to keep things rather windy, with perhaps more
locally damaging winds coast and north interior north of Everett.
There will be a good shot of southerly winds Monday night in
Puget Sound once the low moves inland to the north.

There will also be a threat of thunderstorms near the coast
Sunday afternoon through Monday as the air closer to the upper
low becomes more unstable. Snow levels will generally be 4500
feet or higher which should limit concerns for accumulating snow
in the passes. Finally, high surf is expected at the coast Sunday
night and Monday with minor coastal flooding also possible.
Schneider

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A frontal system will bring
another round of rain and wind on Tuesday. Another wet and windy
period is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. There are hints
at an atmospheric river situation with setting up during this
time with increased river flooding concerns but confidence in the
details is low this far out. Schneider

&&

.AVIATION...The next frontal system is pushing another round of rain
through the area this morning. Similar to last night, ceilings have
been stubborn to drop as forecast. Ceilings are VFR for most sites
this morning, but expect them to drop to MVFR with the next batch of
rain this morning. Should then see gradual improvement later in the
afternoon and evening, with skies even potentially attempting to
scatter briefly. A much more significant storm system will influence
the area on Sunday. Winds today S/SE 5-10kts.

KSEA...VFR ceilings will drop to MVFR over the next few hours as
widespread rain ahead of the next front moves through. Gradual
improvement back to VFR this afternoon and evening. Winds S/SE 7-
10kts.

Kovacik

&&

.MARINE...The next in a series of storm systems will affect the
waters today, with most recent sfc analysis showing a cold front
located offshore near the Outer Coastal Waters. South winds are
picking up early this morning and expect SCA level winds for most
area waters (except Puget Sound). Winds will gradually subside this
afternoon and evening, but swells of 11-13 feet will keep for
hazardous seas through the evening for the West Entrance of the
Strait and the Coastal Waters/Grays Harbor Bar.

Still expecting a very strong low pressure system to rapidly deepen
tonight and into Sunday over the open Pacific Waters, well outside
the outer coastal zones. Nevertheless, strong winds are likely, with
storm warning thresholds expected to be met for the Coastal Waters
with sustained winds in the 40-50kts range. Easterly winds will pick
up through the morning Sunday, with gales likely over most of the
interior waters. A strong easterly push down the Strait is likely to
result in Storm Warning level winds around the West Entrance.

By Sunday night, large swells are expected over the Coastal Waters,
with seas building to between 25 and 30 feet. This will result in
High Surf conditions and a headline for this will need to be issued
in the next 12-24 hours. Expect dangerous beach conditions along the
Coast through much of Sunday and Monday.

All in all, this is looking increasingly likely to be a longer
duration event, with winds continuing through Monday along with high
seas. Gales are likely to persist over the interior waters for
Monday, with storm warning winds also likely subsiding to gale.
Winds and seas will gradually subside through Tuesday but it is very
possible hazardous marine conditions may continue into Tuesday
morning. Yet another front around Thursday could bring another round
of wind headlines along with large swells, though nothing to the
extent of Sunday/Monday.

Kovacik

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.HYDROLOGY...A fairly active weather pattern across western
Washington for much of the forecast period will lead to increased
flow in area rivers. Rivers, particularly the Skokomish, will need
to continue to be closely monitored. While the amount of rainfall is
not completely out of the ordinary for this area, the rivers have
little time between systems to recover. So as a result, instead of
rising and falling between rain events, most river levels increase
in a step like fashion. The cumulative affect of all this rain could
result in flooding by next week.

The strongest of a series of storms is forecast for Monday into
Tuesday. With 6 to 8 inches of rain over the Olympics in the
forecast and a snow level of 5000 to 6000 feet, flooding is
possible or likely on the Skokomish River. While river flooding
is not currently forecast for other area rivers, it cannot be
ruled out due to the cumulative rainfall expected throughout the
next week. JBB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM PDT Monday for Eastern
     Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area.

     High Wind Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for
     Admiralty Inlet Area-San Juan County-Western Skagit County-
     Western Whatcom County.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM PDT Monday for
     Central Coast-North Coast.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM PDT Sunday for East Puget Sound
     Lowlands.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM PDT Sunday for Western
     Strait of Juan De Fuca.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Grays Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 5 AM PDT Monday for
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Admiralty
     Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
     Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for
     Admiralty Inlet-Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
     East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
     Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for Central
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM PDT Monday
     for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

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