Several weather systems moved across Western Washington at the beginning of the new year, bringing with them widespread rain and gusty winds to the area. Several observations sites reported gusts in excess of 58 mph.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
Several weather systems moved across Western Washington at the beginning of the new year, bringing with them widespread rain and gusty winds to the area. Several observations sites reported gusts in excess of 58 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 1, 4:47 AM PST, 3 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
447 AM PST Fri Jan 1 2021
.SYNOPSIS...The first in a series of systems will continue to move
through the region today, bringing another dose of lowland rain,
light mountain snow, and gusty winds to the Western Washington.
Several systems will follow and move through the region through
the weekend and into next week for a continued active weather
pattern.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...It will be a wet start to the
new year as the first in a series of systems moves through the
region. Rain will continue to spread inland early this morning as
a warm front gradually lifts northward across Western Washington.
Expect snow levels to rise between 5000-7000 as a result, however
easterly flow in the passes could keep snow levels right near
pass level through the early morning hours, potentially resulting
in some light snow accumulations for the passes. Hi- res guidance
continues to indicate a brief break in the rain for most areas in
the wake of the warm front, with just some scattered showers
lingering across the region. Southerly winds will also increase
this morning ahead of the cold front, with strongest winds
anticipated for the Pacific Coast, the San Juans, Admiratly
Inlet, and areas across the Northern Interior (Western Whatcom and
Skagit counties).
The trailing cold front will then approach the coast late this
morning and move inland this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible along the coastal waters and for
areas along the Pacific Coast this afternoon and evening in the
wake of the frontal system as precipitation becomes more showery
and instability increases. Moderate to heavy rain will be
possible across the lowlands at times today as the front makes its
way inland. Given current saturated soil conditions, this will
result in an increased risk of landslides across the area today
and through the weekend. Snow levels will then fall back down to
3500-4000 feet across the area late tonight, resulting in some
snow accumulations for the Cascades and for Stevens Pass, with
guidance currently indicating anywhere from 4-6 inches. Snoqualmie
will likely see rain through the night.
No real break expected for Western Washington as the second
system is slated to move through the region Saturday into Sunday.
With a plume of moisture being advected into the region, will
likely continue to see a slew of hazards for the region,
including: impactful mountain snow, the potential for urban
flooding and landslides, river flooding for the Skokomish River in
Mason County, strong, gusty winds, hazardous surf, and the
potential for coastal flooding. Details have been outlined below:
Snow: Snow levels will rise to 4000 to 5000 feet on Saturday and
will remain elevated through early Saturday night before falling
back down to 2000 to 3000 feet late Saturday night and into Sunday
morning. Expect snow levels to remain below Stevens Pass through
the majority of the day, though guidance does hint at levels
potentially rising above pass level for a brief time late
Saturday into early Sunday. Should this play out, it could result
in a period of rain, or rain/snow mix, which could cut overall
snow totals some. Nonetheless, between 12 and 18 inches of
accumulations will be possible in these locations. Snoqualmie Pass
will see rain through much of this period, with the potential for
accumulating snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning. General
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches can be expected once the rain has
transitioned to snow. Those with pass travel in mind will want to
keep an eye on the forecast and the WSDOT road conditions before
heading out.
Rain: With more moisture being advected into the region, can
expect another round of moderate to heavy rain for the lowlands.
In general, 1 to 2 inches of rain can be expected in the lowlands,
with isolated areas between 2 and 3 inches. Heaviest rain is still
expected Saturday afternoon through Saturday night with the
threat for urban flooding being highest in this time period. River
rises will also occur (further details below in the hydrology
section). Given saturated conditions across the region, the
threat for landslides will increase this weekend and remain
elevated possibly into next week as additional systems push
through.
Wind: Confidence continues to increase in widespread strong,
gusty winds developing Saturday morning and persisting through the
evening hours, with the strongest winds still expected Saturday
afternoon and evening. Widespread southerly sustained winds
generally in the 25 to 35 mph range can be expected with frequent
gusts as high as 50 mph. Areas along the Pacific Coast could see
35 to 45 mph winds, with gusts to 60 mph. Thus, a high wind watch
has been issued for the coast with the overnight forecast
package. Scattered power outages will be possible across the
region along with downed tree limbs.
High Surf/Coastal Flooding: Waves will increase to 20 to 24 feet
along the Pacific Coast Saturday and Sunday. Beach erosion will
be possible for coastal areas and large waves could carry debris
further up area beaches. The potential for coastal flooding also
increases this weekend as King Tides Saturday and Sunday increase
the potential for minor tidal overflow, mainly for areas along the
interior coastline from Bellingham to Olympia.
Current trends continue to indicate a the possibility of a brief
break in precipitation for most areas Sunday afternoon before the
next system in the series approaches late Sunday into early
Monday. Will need to continue to monitor how this trends in the
coming days.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...The first week of 2021
looks to be an active one weather-wise, with ensembles indicating
general throughing across the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday.
The next system in the series looks to approach the area late
Sunday into early Monday, with another system slated to move
across Western Washington early Wednesday. Additional rounds of
lowland rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds will be possible with
these systems next week. In addition, the landslide threat and
the potential for urban flooding will remain elevated through
midweek as a result. Otherwise, current trends hint at the
potential for a break between systems on Thursday, however will
need to see how this continues to trend in the coming days. Stay
tuned. 14
&&
.AVIATION...Southwesterly flow aloft today with a warm
front moving through early morning followed by a cold front late
this afternoon. MVFR ceilings through tonight with local areas of
ceilings below 1000 feet and visibility 3-5sm. Gusty S/SE winds
expected near the coast and across the north interior with the
arrival of the cold front later today.
KSEA...Ceilings deteriorating to low MVFR this morning as warm front
brushes the area. May see ceilings briefly lift to near 3000 feet
this afternoon before sinking again to solid low MVFR and surface
visibilities 3-5sm in rain overnight. Surface winds southeasterly
winds 6 to 10 knots becoming southerly 10 to 15 knots with gusts to
20 possible after 03Z. 27
&&
.MARINE...Extended period of active weather to impact area waters
well into next week as a series of strong frontal systems move
through the region. The next in a series of strong frontal
systems will move through the waters today. The front will be
sufficiently strong to provide another round of gale force winds to
the coastal waters and inland waters from Admiralty Inlet northward
today. Another, but stronger, frontal system will follow quickly on
the heels of it for Saturday with the likelihood for gales across
most of the waters and potential storm force winds over the coastal
waters. Seas rising to 20 to 25 feet with this system.
Severe bar conditions at the Grays Harbor Bar continuing for most
of the next week.
Confidence remains high that a very active period with additional
periods of gale force wind (or higher) affecting a large swath of
area waters into much of next week along with a continuation of
rough coastal seas of 15 to 20 feet. 27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River remains just above flood stage
early this morning and a flood warning remains in effect. The
river could recede just below flood stage a bit later this
morning before it is expected to rise again this afternoon. A wet
pattern will continue over western Washington well into next
week. The immediate concern is the storm coming in today followed
by a much bigger storm Saturday into Sunday. That one looks like
an atmospheric river and could produce some heavy rain with the
potential for some widespread river flooding. Next week will
continue to be stormy as well. Impacts regarding today's system
could include urban and small stream flooding, in addition to the
Skokomish rising back above flood stage. There is also an
increased threat of landslides today, which will persist into next
week.
For the weekend system, there is the potential for more
widespread river flooding, urban and small stream flooding, and
increased threat for landslides. The best chances for additional
river flooding outside of the Skokomish is for rivers flowing off
the Olympics, the Bogachiel and the Satsop to name a couple. A
Flood Potential Outlook has been issued and a landslide alert as
well.
Forecast precipitation amounts from early Friday morning through
midday Sunday are 1 to 3 inches in the lowlands, 3 to 7 inches in
the Cascades, and 5 to 10 inches in the Olympics. The snow levels
won't be super high and could be a limiting factor for storm
runoff and flooding, with snow levels rising modestly to 5000 to
7000 feet with short periods of time where they lower to 3000 to
4000 feet. Soil moisture in Western Washington is quite high, at
or above antecedent wetness indexes, such that the additional rain
will increase soil saturation and could cause some landslides.
Felton/14
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this evening
for Admiralty Inlet Area-Central Coast-North Coast-San Juan
County-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County.
High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
for Central Coast-North Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor Bar.
Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Saturday
for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Saturday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PST Saturday for West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Saturday for Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Admiralty Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Puget Sound
and Hood Canal.
&&
www.weather.gov/seattle4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
During the late morning hours, KNUW at the Naval Air Station on Whidbey Island reported a wind gust of 58 mph.
During the morning hours of January 2, Mesonet EW2796 reported a wind gust of 58 mph 9 miles northwest of Langley.
Around 10 AM, the Mesonet XMPL 4 miles E/SE of Port Townsend at the Marrowstone Pt Lighthouse in Jefferson County reported a wind gust of 59 mph. Mesonet FW4667 also reported a wind gust of 59 mph around 1030 AM.
During the late morning hours, Mesonet CW3375 near Ferndale, Washington reported a wind gust of 62 mph. Nearby Mesonet CW1394 6 miles west of Marietta near Sandy Pt Shores reported a wind gust of 61 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 939380, 939357, 939366, 939379.