Rip Current in Florida, January 1, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
341 PM EST Fri Jan 1 2021

.SHORT TERM (Rest of Today through Saturday)...

It may be a new year, but the forecast remains unchanged for South
Florida; warm and mostly dry. High pressure centered over the
western Atlantic and aloft will maintain control over the weather
pattern across our area through the start of the weekend. This
includes thwarting the attempts of a frontal boundary from making
it's way down the peninsula -- at least for the short term.

The front is currently draped quasi-meridionally over the Florida
panhandle and extending into the central Gulf of Mexico. This
boundary should stay put for the start of the weekend, allowing for
SE to SSE flow to prevail here. Given the orientation of the flow,
temperatures will remain on the warm side of the climatological
average, with daytime highs generally ranging in the lower to mid
80s. And while weather should remain mostly dry, just enough
moisture resides in the lower atmosphere for a few pesky garden-
variety showers each day, mainly across the Atlantic waters and the
eastern portions of South Florida.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)...

A split/unconsolidated upper-level flow pattern will prevail
throughout the extended forecast period, with generally weak
embedded mid-level impulses tracking east-northeastward through
the mean southern stream flow (remaining north of South Florida).
The first of these impulses will eject/deamplify northeastward
from the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley vicinity on
Saturday night into Sunday.

Present indications are that this mid-level impulse and
associated low-level mass response will reinforce the above
mentioned quasi-stationary trailing frontal boundary extending
southward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Moisture return ahead
of the weak approaching frontal boundary will be quite limited,
with forecast PWs remaining generally below 1 inch across the weak
warm sector. This weak low-level moisture return combined with
lingering dry air aloft and minimal forcing for ascent should
limit the coverage and organization of any convection that
develops on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front.

By early Monday, rain chances will increase in association with
weak/shallow frontal forcing and moisture convergence along the
surface cold front. Surface flow ahead of the front will quickly veer
to a westerly direction, greatly limiting low-level confluence
and ascent. The weak cold front should move through South Florida
throughout the day on Monday, with post-frontal winds transitioning
to a northerly direction. The northerly flow will advect
cooler/drier air into South Florida to begin the new work week,
which should remain in place until around mid/late week when winds
continue to veer toward easterly and eventually southerly ahead of
the next approaching disturbance.

Maximum temperatures on Sunday will remain above average (lower
80s area-wide) owing to the persistent southerly pre-frontal flow
regime and ridge aloft. Temperatures will trend toward near-
normal/slightly below average on Monday with the passing cold
front, eventually becoming below average on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Minimum apparent temperatures will range from the
lower/middle 40s from Lake O toward southwest FL, and lower/middle
50s elsewhere on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. We will have to
monitor temperature trends across Miami-Dade County, as minimum
apparent temperatures could approach shelter criteria.

Winds will gradually veer toward an easterly direction and
eventually southerly late in the week, allowing temperatures to
climb back to near-normal across South Florida. Rain chances
should remain generally low until at least Friday owing to
depleted moisture across the region (PWs less than 1 inch) and a
lack of any appreciable forcing for ascent.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions should prevail through the rest of today even though
cigs may continue to briefly lower to MFVR levels. Overnight, an
isolated SHRA or two passing within the vicinity of east coast
terminals are possible, but confidence is too low at this time to
include in tafs. Gusts should once again diminish after 00z and
return around 14-15z.

&&

.MARINE...

Marine conditions should be improving with winds slowly beginning to
subside as the pressure gradient over the region relaxes. Coverage
of showers should remain rather isolated into the early part of the
weekend before increasing in chance by late weekend and early next
week ahead of our next cold front.

&&

.BEACHES...

Persistent onshore flow will maintain a high risk of rip currents
along the Atlantic Coast beaches through Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  81  70  82 /  10  10   0  10
West Kendall     69  81  67  82 /  10  10   0  10
Opa-Locka        69  81  67  82 /  10  10   0  10
Homestead        70  81  69  82 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  71  81  69  83 /  10   0   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  71  80  69  82 /  10   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   70  82  69  83 /  10  10   0  10
West Palm Beach  69  81  67  81 /  10  10   0  20
Boca Raton       71  81  69  82 /  10  10   0  10
Naples           67  81  67  77 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ630-
     650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...HVN
Saturday Night through Friday...Weinman

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
409 PM EST Fri Jan 1 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
020915-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
409 PM EST Fri Jan 1 2021

...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches.

Fog: Patchy fog may be possible, especially the fog favored
locations in Collier, Hendry, and Glades Counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

An elevated rip current risk will remain in place along the Atlantic
beaches through the upcoming weekend.

A cold front will move across the region late this weekend which may
yield cooler temperatures early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.