Scattered thunderstorms well in advance of a cold front produced heavy rain which caused flash flooding across portions of central Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms well in advance of a cold front produced heavy rain which caused flash flooding across portions of central Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 30, 6:45 PM EST, 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 745 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge will slowly break down over the next few days as Ida weakens while moving north to the Tennessee Valley. The remnants of Ida are expected to move across the local area later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing unsettled conditions to the region. High pressure builds in from the north into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Monday... The latest analysis indicates TS Ida moving NNE into central MS. It is expected to continue weakening into a tropical depression into this evening. Locally, the upper ridge is continuing to weaken and a weak sfc trough is developing over the region. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the region late this afternoon/this evening and are expected to continue to move generally ESE over the next several hours. Some of these storms have been severe. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will remain possible through the evening. Will have likely PoPs across the far N/NW, with high chc into central VA, tapered to slight chc in NE NC. Lows tonight in the upper 60s and low 70s with a few mid 70s near the coast. Patchy fog will be possible after midnight through ~12Z mainly W of I-95 and around the Maryland portion of the Eastern Shore. The placement of heavy rainfall could allow for some fog farther east as well. Ida will continue to lose strength over the TN Valley on Tuesday but the remnant low and upper trough will move NE toward the Mid- Atlantic. Hot/humid again with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Relative best chance for shower and storms on Tuesday will exist across the NW but PoPs, mainly developing later in the aftn. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Monday... Cloud cover increases Tuesday night, and scattered to possibly numerous showers will move in across northern portions of the area as the remnants of Ida begin to approach the region, with a warm front lifting N over the northern sections of the mid- Atlantic. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s NW to low/mid 70s SE. Wednesday through early Thursday still appears to be the primary timeframe for active weather associated with the remnants of Ida passing through the region. The models remain fairly consistent, though the ECMWF is still the strongest/most organized with the sfc low (still sub 1000mb). The track has the system moving through the southern/central Appalachians Wednesday morning and off to the NE (likely across NW sections of the CWA late Wed aftn/Wed evening into Wednesday night before exiting off the coast on Thursday. With this track, the highest rainfall totals are generally favored north and west of the local area. Locally, northwestern portions of the area will see the highest QPF amounts (~2-3") with lesser amounts further southeast. For the Day 3 ERO, WPC has placed the northwestern portions of the area extending over to the MD Eastern Shore in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall with a Marginal Risk for the remainder of the area outside of the NE NC counties. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed for at least a portion of our NW and northern counties Wednesday into early Thursday. As for the severe weather threat, this remains dependent on the exact track Ida takes, but appears probable that there will be at least a marginal strong to severe storm threat (with the possibility for a few tornadoes) across the forecast area. For now, SPC has placed all of the area in a Day 3 Marginal Risk. Highs Wed will be cooler (due to widespread rain/clouds), in the mid/upper 70s NW with upper 80s/near 90F far SE. PoPs will be categorical NW and high chance far SE. Likely PoPs continue Wed evening then diminishing PoPs overnight Wed/Thu AM. Lows in the 60s except lower 70s SE. Diminishing rain chances Thu, will maintain chc PoPs into the aftn E of I-95, drying out across the W a bit earlier. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Monday... With the remains of Ida pushing off to the NE, with a deep upper trough passing off the coast of New England, a confluent NW flow aloft will allow sfc high pressure to build S into the local area from the Great Lakes. This will bring a welcome change from the persistent heat/humidity of past several weeks. Will have a dry forecast through the period with mostly sunny skies/mostly clear nights. Highs will be mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s, warming into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday and upper 80s/near 90F Mon ahead of the next cold front. Lows will be in the mid/upper 50s to mid 60s, warming into the 60s to lower 70s by Sun night. Dew pts will be remarkably lower especially Fri-Sat, ranging through the 50s inland with some lower 60s near the coast. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Monday... Scattered storms have developed across the region late this afternoon/early this evening and will continue to move generally ESE over the next several hours (~6z Tues). Outside of convection, most terminals are VFR, however, expect brief drops in VIS to MVFR/IFR with any storms. Storms will taper off tonight with primarily VFR conditions returning outside of areas of patchy fog across the Piedmont from 06-12Z/Tue. Have also added patchy fog to SBY between 9-12z. Fog may be more widespread than currently anticipated given rainfall this evening. VFR CIGs prevail Tues with BKN clouds NW and SCT-BKN SE. Late afternoon/evening convection will again be possible Tues mainly across the N and will remain possible through Tues night. Outlook: Reduced flight conditions will be possible Tues night into early Thu as the remnants of Hurricane Ida track N of the local area. Thunderstorms will also be possible through the day Wed. Dry/VFR conditions expected from late Thu and beyond as high pressure settles in from the N. N/NE Winds will be a bit gusty near the coast late Thu/Fri. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Generally quiet marine conditions in place this afternoon with southerly winds 5-10 kt. Waves are around 1 ft in the bay and seas are 2-3 ft. Ida has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it makes slow northward progress over central MS. A weak surface trough is noted across inland areas this afternoon with some potential for showers and thunderstorms to spread eastward into the Ches Bay and coastal waters this evening. Otherwise, continued benign marine conditions will extend into Tuesday before SE flow begins to increase Tuesday night. Flow increases on Wednesday as the gradient tightens ahead of Ida's remnant low. Models have come into better agreement regarding the track and timing of the low pressure passage near our region but the ECMWF remains a bit of a strong outlier. Regardless, we can expect to see an increase in SSE winds to 15-20 kt in the bay and 20- 25 kt offshore by Wednesday afternoon as the low approaches from the west and northwest. Small Craft headlines will be required for most (if not all) of the waters into Thursday morning as the low crosses the region to our north. A trailing cold front will sweep across the waters on Thursday, switching the winds NW then N as cooler and drier air filters in behind the boundary. Decent CAA is expected into Thursday evening with continuing SCA conditions in northerly flow. Waves build to 2-4 ft in the bay in both the southerly flow ahead of the low and northerly flow behind the front. Seas increase to 4-6 ft S and 5-7 ft N by Thursday morning and will likely take until Saturday to drop below the 5 ft SCA threshold completely. Thereafter, much improved weather and boating conditions are expected for the remainder of the upcoming weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Increasing southerly flow up the Ches Bay may result in some minor flooding issues at Cambridge/Bishops Head MD and Lewisetta VA with the high tide cycle Wed night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB LONG TERM...AJB/LKB AVIATION...LKB/RMM MARINE...RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1253 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 NCZ012>017-030>032-102-311700- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck- 1253 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Ida will impact the region Wednesday through Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system could produce some instances of flash flooding a well as isolated severe storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VAZ060-061-065>068-079>081-087>089-092-093-095>098-524-525-311700- Prince Edward-Cumberland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia- Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Greensville-Sussex-Surry- Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Virginia Beach-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 1253 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain with localized flash flooding possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Ida will impact the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system could produce some instances of flash flooding, especially across the Piedmont. Isolated severe storms will also be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ021>025-VAZ048-062-064-069-075>078-082>086-090-099-100-509>523- 311700- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Fluvanna-Goochland-Caroline-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond- Northumberland-Lancaster-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex- Mathews-James City-Accomack-Northampton-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York- 1253 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain with localized flash flooding possible this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Ida will impact the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system could produce some instances of flash flooding, especially across the Piedmont. Isolated severe storms will also be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LKB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
743 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0724 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW MIDLOTHIAN 37.51N 77.66W
08/30/2021 CHESTERFIELD VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREES DOWN ALONG WINTERFIELD RD.
&&
JOPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
746 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E MOSELEY 37.42N 77.73W
08/30/2021 CHESTERFIELD VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREES DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF DUVAL RD.
&&
JOSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
748 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021
MDZ023-310030-
Somerset MD-
748 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Somerset County through 830 PM EDT...
At 748 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tylerton, or 14 miles northeast of Fair Port, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Marion Station, Tylerton, Lawsonia, Byrdtown, Smith Island and
Hopewell.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.
&&
LAT...LON 3788 7580 3788 7585 3777 7585 3789 7607
3802 7605 3799 7601 3803 7604 3802 7587
3812 7604 3813 7603 3813 7602 3804 7589
3803 7587 3812 7595 3804 7587 3807 7584
3802 7585 3806 7584 3802 7573
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 291DEG 14KT 3800 7612
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
MillerSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
749 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021
VAZ079>081-087-088-310030-
Prince George VA-Dinwiddie VA-Sussex VA-Brunswick VA-Greensville VA-
749 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central
Greensville, southwestern Prince George, western Sussex, southeastern
Dinwiddie and central Brunswick Counties through 830 PM EDT...
At 748 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Petersburg to near Purdy to near Alberta.
Movement was east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Dinwiddie, Lawrenceville, McKenney, Purdy, Sussex, Jarratt, Alberta,
Stony Creek, Dewitt, Carson, Cochran, Booker, Dolphin, Pleasant
Shade, Wharfs Store, Meredithville, Cowie Corner, Hilda, Templeton
and Edgerton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees,
and blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and
other light outdoor objects.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3711 7720 3677 7733 3672 7803 3695 7801
3701 7777 3719 7754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 289DEG 22KT 3715 7745 3690 7762 3689 7790
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
05Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
757 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021
VAZ524-525-310030-
Hampton/Poquoson VA-Newport News VA-
757 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of , the City of
Poquoson, the City of Hampton and the southern City of Newport News
through 830 PM EDT...
At 756 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Seaford to near Hampton to near
Northampton. Movement was east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Newport News, Hampton, Hampton University, Langley AFB, Northampton,
Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Grand View, Fox Hill, Phoebus, Langley
View, Raleigh Terrace, Messick and Plum Tree Island Refuge.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.
&&
LAT...LON 3697 7620 3698 7649 3708 7640 3730 7634
3730 7623 3727 7627 3728 7631 3729 7632
3729 7634 3720 7635 3719 7632 3715 7626
3711 7624 3707 7623 3700 7626
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 283DEG 12KT 3722 7629 3707 7633 3699 7643
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
BROWNPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
759 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0736 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE BON AIR 37.46N 77.55W
08/30/2021 CHESTERFIELD VA 911 CALL CENTER
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN NEAR HULL ST AND
WALMSLEY RD.
&&
JOThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 67 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:01 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Melody Road was flooded and impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 983249.