Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana at 11:55am CDT on August 29. From here it continued to slowly move inland and northward.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana at 11:55am CDT on August 29. From here it continued to slowly move inland and northward. By 15Z on August 30, it had reached SW Mississippi. A large amount of moisture was being pulled from the Gulf northward with this system, making its way to Kentucky. This was exasperated by a frontal boundary which stalled north of the Ohio River, keeping Kentucky in the warm and moist sector. Showers and thunderstorms developed across portions of eastern KY by mid-morning, including Pike County. These showers and storms persisted across Pike County without much in the way of forward motion, eventually leading to flooding problems across portions of the county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 30, 8:47 AM EST, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 947 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2021 Bumped up Pops and sky cover based on latest trends. Flood Advisory was issued for eastern Pike county for heavy rain repeatedly passing over the area over the past couple of hours. Will be monitoring other areas as well today as slow moving showers and storms may cause some localized flooding. Updates sent to NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 729 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2021 Incorporated the latest hourly obs into the forecast grids to establish new trends. The forecast overall is on track this morning with no update required at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 417 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2021 The short term period will be quite active, with rain chances for the entire area today through Tuesday. We will see scattered showers and storms today and tonight, as a cold front sags slowly southward toward the area. The highest rain chances will be for this afternoon and early this evening when peak heating is still being maximized. After a brief lull in the rain tonight, we will see another surge of more substantial precipitation entering the area Tuesday morning, as the remnants of Ida begin moving our direction. The showers and storms we experience on Tuesday will steadily increase in coverage and intensity through out the day on Tuesday, with pretty much the entire forecast area seeing at least some measurable rain at some point. The rain will ramp up as Ida combines its energy and moisture with the southward moving cold front, leading to enhanced lift across the region. This rain could be locally heavy at times, and could lead to flooding issues late in the day Tuesday. We have issued a flash flood watch from 18Z Tuesday through 18Z Wednesday to begin addressing anticipated hydro issues. After one more day of warm temperatures today, we will see a dramatic drop off in daytime highs on Tuesday. This will be the result of a cold front moving south of our area combined with widespread cloud cover and rainfall from Ida. Highs today should top out in the mid to upper 80s, while max values on Tuesday are expected to only reach the 70s across the area. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 550 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2021 The models are in general agreement regarding an amplified and progressive long wave pattern to be in place across the CONUS through the period. Smaller scale features are also gelling fairly well through the middle of the week, but the agreement then breaks down as we head towards the second half of the period. As such, will follow fairly close to the blended approach to the guidance. The core of the remnants of Ida will be moving through eastern Kentucky Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the heaviest rainfall occurring during that time frame. In general, the models have nudged the heavier rainfall totals a bit southeast compared to a few days ago. We are expecting 2 to 3 inches of rainfall, although depending upon where the better deformation zone sets up as Ida interacts will northern stream energy passing through the Ohio Valley and into New England, a swath of embedded heavier totals that could top 4 inches are still possible. The ECMWF has been playing up this scenario the most consistently, although it continues to maintain a deeper surface reflection longer than the majority of guidance. It is also particularly strong and broad with the 850 mb moisture flux convergence, which is more sporadic in the other guidance. As such, there is not particularly high confidence in these locally higher amounts at this time. The remnants will pull away by Wednesday night, with a central CONUS ridge to build in across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through Friday. Northern stream energy moving through southern Canada will then flatten out the ridge by this weekend, although the models are not in great agreement regarding the extent of subsequent height falls that take place across the Great Lakes and particularly the Ohio Valley. The ECMWF is on the amplified side of guidance with the height falls, while the Canadian/GFS are showing flatter flow aloft. Given this lower confidence, will allow the blended guidance to dictate the weather details. Welcomed dry weather and more specifically a much less humid air mass will follow from Thursday through the first half of the weekend. Highs will drop back into mainly the 70s each day through Friday, with lows in the 50s. Highs will then return to the lower 80s by the weekend, which is still close to normal for this time of year. A weaker cold front will then attempt to approach the area on Sunday, bringing a slight chance of showers to close out the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2021 Scattered to broken clouds have overspread the area early this morning. Isolated showers and storms have already begun popping around the area this morning as well. This activity will gradually increase in coverage through out the day, and we should see scattered to perhaps numerous showers and around eastern Kentucky this afternoon into early this evening. Cloud cover will be mainly SCT this morning, but should increase to BKN by this afternoon. After a lull in the precip early tonight, we will likely see numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms moving into the area late tonight into early Tuesday morning, as Ida approaches from the southwest, and a cold front sags southward into the area. MVFR to IFR conditions will possible at times with the stronger showers and storms. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104- 106>120. && UPDATE...CMF SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 604 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-311100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 604 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible across the area today and tonight. Some of these could produce locally heavy rainfall, especially along and and north of the Mountain Parkway. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The remnants of Ida, combined with an approaching cold front, will bring heavy rainfall and the potential of flash flooding to the area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of heavy rain and flooding to the Jackson, KY weather office through Wednesday. AR/GEOGERIAN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flash flood, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
The fire chief from Blackberry reported that water from nearby Blackberry creek had made it into their Station 1 building.
Joes Creek Road is blocked due to water over the road.
Left Fork Blackberry Road is blocked by a large mudslide.
Stone Coal Road, near the Coal Run Village in northern Pikeville, is blocked by high water. One car was reported to have vanished beneath the deep water. Other cars are stranded.
Flash flooding was reported at Venters Lane Trailer Park.
Pond Creek is flooded at the Red Robin Stone Heritage Museum in the community of Stone.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 981696, 981698, 981701, 981702, 981703, 981704.