An approaching upper level trough allowed for scattered thunderstorms to develop across eastern New Mexico into the South Plains on the afternoon of the third. A stalled cold front located from southeastern New Mexico through the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains generated a strong thermal boundary with ample instability to the south of the front.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
An approaching upper level trough allowed for scattered thunderstorms to develop across eastern New Mexico into the South Plains on the afternoon of the third. A stalled cold front located from southeastern New Mexico through the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains generated a strong thermal boundary with ample instability to the south of the front. The most intense storm of the afternoon developed near the Texas/New Mexico state line and tracked eastward through the southern South Plains in the afternoon and then into the southern Rolling Plains in the evening. This long track supercell generated hail as large as golf balls and accumulating small hail along its path.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 1:17 PM CST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 217 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 .SHORT TERM... Increasing mid-level ascent and destabilization ahead of an upper level short wave trough moving across the 4-corners and Colorado Rockies already assisting in firing convection from the western Panhandle to the Sangre de Cristos southward to the Sacramentos. Continue to expect an increase in coverage across eastern New Mexico spreading eastward across the forecast area late afternoon through the evening hours with the potential for isolated supercells mainly across the southern tier of CWA counties. The upper trough will move east of the Panhandle and South Plains late tonight with showers and storms moving east with it. The exiting trough will also bring a reinforcing northerly low level flow and associated modest cold advection. Stratus should give way during the day Tuesday as mixing of dry mid level air increases. Despite the increased insolation temperatures will remain on the cool side. MOS and init blend look good with values about ten degrees cooler than seasonal norms. .LONG TERM... By Wednesday morning a weak shortwave will be moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Moisture and lift will be too far north with this system to bring any precipitation to our area however this will lead to a tightening of the surface pressure gradient and hence breezy SW winds. This will also push a weak cold front through the forecast area Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Upper level ridging will begin to strengthen across the Southern Plains on Thursday so despite being in the wake of a cold front temperatures should remain around 80 degrees. An embedded shortwave within the ridge will dampen the ridge amplitude a bit on Friday. Guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement that a dryline should sharpen up near the TX/NM state line which may serve as a forcing mechanism for thunderstorms as the shortwave moves across. Forecasted instability/shear ahead of the dryline would suggest the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms as well and analog guidance does indicate this potential but of course details can change between now and then. Upper level flow will remain nearly zonal across the forecast area through the weekend as an upper level low slides SE across the Pacific Northwest keeping temperatures on the warm side. Another cold front will attempt to move across the area Sunday or early next week however model guidance varies on the exact timing/location of this front hence there are large uncertainties in afternoon temperatures for Sunday through early next week at this time. /WCI && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 07/58
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1142 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021 TXZ021>044-041645- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1142 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across southeastern New Mexico or adjacent areas of the South Plains and Permian Basin then to spread to the east and northeast. Isolated supercell thunderstorms may develop with the potential for hail to around 2 inches in diameter as the primary threat. Wind gusts to 60 mph and localized flooding are secondary threats. These threats will be greatest along and south of a Morton to Lubbock to Guthrie line. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. An active weather pattern may be in store for this weekend with a risk of critical fire weather conditions and/or strong to severe thunderstorms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:23 UTC.
6 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several reports were received of hail up to golf ball size from about four miles west-southwest of Plains to Plains along US Highway 82. No damage was reported.
The Tokio, Texas co-op gin located at the intersection of Farm to Market Road 1780 and US Highway 82 reported golf ball size hail. No damage was reported.
Several reports were received of hail up to golf ball size from approximately two miles west of Brownfield on US Highway 82 to Brownfield. No damage was reported.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near O'Donnell measured a wind gust to 63 mph.
An NWS cooperative weather observer reported quarter size hail in Tahoka.
A report from the public was received of quarter size hail near Justiceburg along US Highway 84.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 947884, 947885, 947886, 947887, 947888, 947889, 947891.