The forecast called for a line of storms to come together in eastern Oklahoma, and then move quickly through northern and western Arkansas from the late evening of the 3rd into the wee hours of the 4th. Strong to damaging winds were the main concern.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
The forecast called for a line of storms to come together in eastern Oklahoma, and then move quickly through northern and western Arkansas from the late evening of the 3rd into the wee hours of the 4th. Strong to damaging winds were the main concern. Isolated tornadoes and some hail were also expected.
It was certainly warm and unstable enough to fuel severe thunderstorms. High temperatures on the 3rd were well into the 80s to around 90 degrees in places. It was 88 degrees at Pine Bluff (Jefferson County), 89 degrees at Monticello (Drew County), and 90 degrees at Camden (Ouachita County).
Farther east, 60 to over 80 mph straight-line winds become the dominant hazard. Trees and/or power lines were taken down at Antoine (Pike County), Atkins (Pope County), Bismarck (Hot Spring County), Caddo Gap (Montgomery County), just north of Clarksville (Johnson County), Harrison (Boone County), Haskell (Saline County), Hot Springs (Garland County), Perryville (Perry County), and Pleasant Plains (Independence/White Counties).
A 71 mph gust was recorded at the airport at Hot Springs (Garland County). There were a couple of quarter size hail reports around Conway (Faulkner County). More than 60,000 utility customers lost power.
At Walnut Ridge (Lawrence County), wind gusts likely exceeded 90 mph. Some homes and retail buildings in and around town were affected, with a home improvement center and furniture store hit especially hard. About two miles northwest of town, grain bins were mangled. An outbuilding was dismantled near Manson (Randolph County).
Rain over the northern/western counties averaged a half inch to an inch. Local amounts were over two inches. In the twenty four hour period ending at 700 am CDT on the 4th, Morrilton (Conway County) got 2.09 inches of precipitation, with 2.02 inches just northeast of Damascus (Van Buren County), 1.33 inches at Hattieville (Conway County), 1.30 inches at Lead Hill (Boone County), 1.25 inches at Dardanelle (Yell County), 1.22 inches at Greers Ferry Dam (Cleburne County), 1.20 inches at Hardy (Sharp County), 1.19 inches at Subiaco (Logan County), and 1.16 inches at Mountain Home (Baxter County). The storms weakened toward daybreak, but this event was not quite done. Later in the afternoon, more storms bubbled up in southeast sections of the state, with a 60 mph gust estimated at Arkansas City (Desha County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 4:57 PM CST, 4 hours 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 557 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 .DISCUSSION... Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below... && .AVIATION... While VFR conditions are ongoing early this evening...SHRA/TSRA will develop the west...and move NE into NWRN sections of the state this evening...spreading further east and south overnight. Expect condtions as low as IFR or briefly lower...especially under the most intense activity. Some SVR storms could be seen...with damaging winds and large hail. The strongest storm activity will shift SE by sunrise Tue...though additional SHRA/TSRA will remain possible into the early afternoon hrs Tue. Expect improving conditions by late in this TAF period as drier air moves into the state. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 304 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021) SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Night ..TODAY AND TONIGHT... Recent MSAS data, sfc obs, and subjective analysis indicated a region of cyclonic sfc flow over Nrn TX/Srn OK, w/ the the nose of this lower pressure beginning to nose into N/Ern OK/Wrn AR. On a larger scale, a broad trof of lower pressure extended from S/Wrn TX towards the N/E over the Ozark Plateau and into the Upper Midwest. Turbulent bndry layer conditions have given way to substantial mixing and morning low stratus has since mixed out w/ an expansive diurnal Cu field beginning over Ern OK and more recently portions of Srn AR. A strong pres grad was noted over the state, and is continuing to drive strong Srly flow w/ temps in the low to mid 80s currently over much of Srn AR, and upper 70s along and north of the I-40 corridor. Td's in the lower 70s were noted across Srn AR as well, w/ moisture transport expected to remain rampant through the remainder of the afternoon as the aforementioned sfc low approaches. The LZK 19Z sounding revealed a rather unstable environment present over Cntrl AR w/ minimal CINH in place and steep lapse rates contributing ML buoyancy in excess of 2000 J/kg. To the N/W, a cold frnt was draped over KS and N/Wrn OK extending into the Panhandle, and wl serve as the primary forcing mechanism for CI later Mon night. Over Mon night, several low amplitude perturbations wl traverse through mean H500 S/Wrly flow on the downstream portion of a larger impulse. This upper forcing wl overspread the region late in the night and help aid in supplying some modest bulk shear, supportive of sustaining organized convective activity. Latest thinking remains consistent w/ this fcst update on the potential for a nocturnal thunderstorm complex/MCS to develop over Ern OK and advance Ewrd into portions of Nrn and Cntrl AR. Most recent suite of CAM and HREF guidance is supportive of this fcst as well, w/ a NP bullseye for strong winds over the Nrn portion of the state. Initially, a multicell storm mode is anticipated following CI in Ern OK along the advancing cold frnt, however weaker shear values and poor shear vectors relative to the bndry wl contribute to interacting cold pools and consolidation, leading to quick upscale growth into a linear segment/MCS. Based on timing of probabilistic HREF guidance, this segment should enter the Wrn portion of the state b/w the 02- 03Z timeframe. Due to the timing of the event, diurnal cooling may begin to inhibit sfc based buoyancy playing a role in E/wrd progression of the line, however pt fcst soundings are still suggesting sufficient ML buoyancy around 2000-3000 J/kg w/ minimal CINH. Thus initially, as the line enters the state, it wl encounter a favorable environment to continue advancing E/wrd initially. However as the night progresses, cooling wl lkly diminish remaining buoyancy further E into the state and cause the line to weaken eventually before 12Z. Given the anticipated storm mode and HREF progs, strong to damaging winds wl lkly be the primary hazards associated w/ this system, however some large hail cannot be ruled out in the early phases of storm development. Low-lvl shear progs are not very supportive for QLCS tornadic activity, however it remains non-zero at this time and cannot be ruled out either. ..TUES AND WED... Tues, the aforementioned cold frnt wl sag S/Ewrd across the state w/ N/Wrly winds beginning to filter in drier air over the FA by the later afternoon and evening. PoPs wl remain over much of the region through the day w/ the FROPA and primary upper impulse lifting N/Ewrd, however most can expect RH values and the general mugginess begin to subside from N/W to S/E through the later evening, as Cntrl Plains high pressure begins to sag S/wrd. Wed, sfc high pressure wl begin to overtake the FA w/ Nrly winds continuing to usher drier air in and promote a more settled wx pattern with more seasonal temperatures resuming. LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday A large area of high pressure will build over Arkansas from the Plains, and that will bring a few days of dry conditions and below average temperatures. The high will depart by the weekend, and return flow will bring temperatures back up to seasonal levels. At the same time, a new storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front toward Arkansas, and rain chances will increase. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast Saturday through Monday. At this time, the dynamics aloft to support severe weather do not look impressive, so severe weather should be localized. However, the front will be nearly parallel a southwest wind flow aloft, and will be slow to cross the state. That could lead to areas of heavy rain. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Aviation...62
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1008 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 1008 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight Severe weather is expected over the region through the overnight hours. The latest data indicates a complex of thunderstorms will track across the state, posing a threat for damaging winds which will last into early Tuesday morning. In addition to damaging winds, large hail can not be ruled out. The tornado threat, while low, can not be completed discounted. Additionally, there could be some locally heavy rainfall, which could lead to flash flooding and aggravate existing flooding issues along some area rivers. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday Thunderstorms return to the forecast for the upcoming weekend. Severe weather chances appear low at this time, but locally heavy rainfall may develop. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation may be needed tonight. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
930 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021
ARZ037-040-040315-
Polk AR-Scott AR-
930 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN POLK AND
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...
At 930 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Octavia, or 23 miles west of Mena, moving northeast at 45 mph.
Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Waldron... Beauchamp...
Oliver... Morgan Springs...
Queen Wilhelmina State Park... Mountain Fork...
Bates... Black Fork...
Rocky... Cauthron...
Black Fork Mountain Wilderness... Winfield...
Hon... Rich Mountain...
Eagleton... Needmore...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
western Arkansas.
LAT...LON 3493 9445 3493 9443 3495 9441 3494 9439
3496 9437 3495 9434 3496 9426 3497 9423
3500 9423 3483 9401 3449 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 223DEG 40KT 3451 9463
62The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 85 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:40 UTC.
27 thunderstorm wind, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree was blown down and blocked both lanes of Highway 103.
An estimated wind gust of 60 mph was reported.
The county judge reported trees and power lines down.
An estimated 60 mph wind gust was reported by the public.
Numerous trees and powerlines were down across the county. A tree fell on a home in Russellville.
Multiple trees and power lines were down across the county. A tree fell on a house in Atkins.
A Co-Op observer said a county judge called them and said there were multiple trees down around southeast Montgomery County.
Several large trees were blown over.
Numerous trees and power lines were down across the county. A tree was blown onto a home near Pocahontas.
A Co-Op observer reported that they had multiple trees blown down from storms overnight.
Several trees were reported down on Highway 63.
A 71 MPH wind gust was recorded by the ASOS at the Hot Springs Airport.
The emergency manager called to say that multiple trees were down across Hot Spring County. A tree was on a home in Bismarck.
A tree was blown down on Highway 270.
Windows were blown out of the Walmart and power poles were down in the parking lot. Trees were reported down and there was damage to buildings in the city.
Straight-line wind damage was noted across the city of Walnut Ridge. Damage consisted of trees uprooted or snapped, power lines blown down, some minor damage to homes, and damage to retail structures along Business Highway 67.
Multiple trees and power lines were down across the city. Multiple structures had damage. A tree fell onto a home with people trapped inside.
Straight-line wind damage was noted along Manson Road mainly west of US-67 south of Pocahontas near the community of Manson. Damage consisted of several uprooted and snapped trees, a destroyed outbuilding, and damaged power lines.
The general public reported winds around 60 mph in the city.
The general public reported winds around 60 mph in the city.
A tree was reported down and possibly on a vehicle, on Oaklawn Blvd.
Numerous trees were downed along Highway 70 from five miles east of Hot Springs to Lonsdale.
Social media showed a picture of a large tree down in downtown Perryville.
Numerous trees were downed along Highway 70 from Lonsdale to Interstate 30.
Garage shop was moved off its foundation and damaged. Several trees were downed.
A large tree was down across Highway 229.
This wind gust was estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 957020, 957023, 957025, 957027, 957029, 957033, 957035, 957038, 957040, 957043, 957047, 957050, 957053, 957056, 957057, 957063, 957065, 957069, 957072, 957073, 957074, 957079, 957082, 969124, 957077, 969125, 969121, 957084, 957085, 957086.