Tornado and Hail in Arkansas, May 3 to 4, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 855 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021/

UPDATE...

Tranquil conditions are occurring across the Mid-South at the
moment. Expect that to all change by around midnight. A line of
severe storms will be racing across Arkansas over the next couple
of hours while there is a line of convection across Central
Illinois into extreme Eastern Missouri that is moving to the
southeast. Both will collide over the Mid-South during the
overnight hours. With dewpoints reaching into the lower 70s today,
there is plenty of instability for the storms to tap into as
CAPE values range between 3500-4000 J/KG across the area. Made
some minor adjustments to temperatures and sky conditions.
Otherwise, current forecast looks good.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021/

The next 24 to 36 hours are expected to be very active across the
Midsouth. Tonight is especially concerning as nighttime severe
weather often catches people off guard. Make plans now to be
alerted via cell phone, NOAA Weather Radio or any other device
capable of waking you from sleep if warnings are issued. Also,
call your friends and neighbors that may not be as weather aware
in the event warnings are issued.

A cold front will slowly move across the Midsouth tonight and
tomorrow. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight
ahead of the front and continue through the day tomorrow. Storms
may continue in eastern portions of west Tennessee and northeast
Mississippi through sunset. The greatest severe Will gradually
shift to the south and east with time.

Tonight, the Storm Prediction Center has portions of east
Arkansas and West TN as well as the Missouri Bootheel in an
enhanced area for severe thunderstorms. Farther southeast there is
a sliver of a slight risk area that includes portions of west
Tennessee far northwest Mississippi and east Arkansas. The
remainder of east Arkansas, north Mississippi and west Tennessee
is included in a Marginal Risk.

Diffluent flow aloft will shift over the area ahead of a deep
trough swinging across the Plains. Current SBCAPE values are over
3,000 J/kg across the Midsouth. Although these values will likely
come down a bit after sunset, it is nevertheless indicative of a
very unstable airmass. Dew points are in the low to mid 70s with
PW's near 1.5 inches. Lapse rates up to 8.5C/km will support very
large hail which is expected to be the initial threat starting
around 10pm. As the trough approaches shear will increase.
Forecast soundings in the enhanced risk area over northeast
Arkansas indicate Surface to 2km shear increases from around
100m2/s2 to 150m2/s2 between 11pm and 3am. This may be the
greatest window for tornadoes in northeast Arkansas into the
Missouri Bootheel. A 40kt LLJ is expected to move across northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest TN after 4 am. The
potential for damaging wind will exist with any storm but will
likely be enhanced along the cold front.

Tomorrow, the Storm Prediction Center has most of north
Mississippi and a portion of west Tennessee in an enhanced risk.
To the northwest there is a sliver of slight risk that includes
portions of east Arkansas and West Tennessee. The remainder of
far northwest Tennessee, east Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel
is included in a Marginal risk.

Slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow should help limit
instability. However, the cap is expected to be weaker. We may
see an ongoing line of strong to severe storms at sunrise moving
across the Mississippi river. By mid morning additional cellular
storms are expected to develop across much of west Tennessee and
north Mississippi. Low level shear should be much lower in the
enhanced risk tomorrow, so the tornado threat should be a bit
lower. Lapse rates will remain high, in the 7.5-8 C/km range
resulting in a continued threat of large hail. The cold front is
expected to approach the Mississippi river during the early
afternoon hours. During the early afternoon hours much of west
Tennessee and north Mississippi will be under the right rear
entrance region of a 110kt upper level jet streak. The potential
for damaging wind will exist with any storm but will likely be
enhanced along the cold front as it sweeps across the area.

Cooler and drier air will move in tomorrow night. Mostly dry
conditions are expected in Wednesday through Friday. Expect
highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few
showers and weak afternoon thunderstorms may return over the
weekend  but no strong or severe storms are expected. Some 80
degree high temperatures may also return over the weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

A line of strong to severe TSRAs to push into the region overnight
This line should impact KMEM, KMKL, KJBR and to a lesser extent
KTUP. Placed a tempo for s gusty winds as this line moves
through. Expect light and variable winds after the line until
southerly flow can re-establish. KTUP should see a couple rounds
of SHRAs/TSRAs starting by sunrise and continuing into early
afternoon. More SHRAs/TSRAs are expected to develop along the
cold front that will push across the Mid-South Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Best chances for redevelopment appear to be north of
the TN/MS line.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
238 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-042145-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
238 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Mid
South late tonight. Damaging wind, very large hail and tornadoes
are possible. See website for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorm threat will continue into Tuesday.
Damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes are possible. See website
for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed late tonight and Tuesday.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.